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Primary Lessons
Author: BobR    Date: 03/21/2012 13:05:40

This has certainly been an interesting primary season. It's hard to believe that it's been 4 years since (then) Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were battling it out for the Democratic nomination. It literally came down to the wire with breath held at the convention until Ms. Clinton nobley put party over personal ambitions, and ceded the nomination to Mr. Obama. It was a textbook example of how a close primary should be run. The Republican primary was clearly decided long before their convention; only the veep slot was up in the air, and we all know how THAT worked out.

Compare that with 2012. The Republican primary is a disaster. The original field of candidates went through a dozen "debates" before the voting started, and we still have 4 left (it may end up being 3 soon - Newt Gingrich's campaign has dipped into the red). With all the caucuses and votes, it seems like Romney will be inevitable, but it's still hard to say what will happen. Despite all the states he's won, there are still a LOT of "unbound" delegates. What does that mean? It means the caucuses are "non-binding", and when those states hold their individual conventions, the delegates can support whomever they please. Refer to the chart at this link... Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, and the islands are all unbound, despite the results we all think we know. In addition, plenty of other states have delegates that have not yet been bound.

This of course, is Ron Paul's "secret" strategy - to use the force of his ground troops to suck up as many of those as he can. Of the 1087 delegates allocated per elections thus far, 206 are officially "unallocated". Tradition would suggest they will go to the candidates based on the election results. Were Ron Paul actually able to snag all of those, he would be in second place. If that's his plan to win, it is as much based in reality as most of his other ideas.

Regardless, with 20% remaining unallocated, and that trend continuing for the remainder of the season, the Republican convention will likely be a mess, with the Final Four (three?) stumbling in bruised and bleeding and fighting over the scraps like children on a playground fighting over who gets to go down the slide first. At that point, they will have to suddenly start liking each other once again, and face off against President Obama.

Speaking of whom - yes there actually are Democratic primaries for president as well. Yes, there are contenders vying to unseat him. They have zero chance of doing so, mainly because the most states that any of them have gotten themselves onto the ballot is 5. The most successful has been Randall Terry (yes, THAT Randall Terry, the anti-abortion crusader who is as much of a Democrat as Fred Phelps). Terry was actually able to beat President Obama in 15 counties in Oklahoma, but wasn't able to win the state.

This is interesting, because for the last 2 years I've been hearing emo-progs, firebaggers, and the rest of the I-want-my-sparkle-pony lefties angrily proclaiming that "WE need to primary Obama", and get a REAL progressive on the ticket, or at least provide enough push to get the president to acknowledge and address the issues they have. How has that worked out for them?

In a word: FAIL.

I don't doubt their sincerity, nor their passion, but unless that translates into coordinated action, it's all fairly ineffectual. Talking in your own bubble, listening to your own echo chamber, but not actually taking steps to get a candidate on the ballot is known as "armchair activism", and is really only effective at getting petitions and letters into the hands of already elected officials. To get a person on a ballot requires boots on the ground, gathering signatures. It requires a structure to ensure that people are working effectively and that the paperwork that needs to be filed is handled properly (just ask Santorum and Gingrich, re: Virginia).

I tend to be a bit cynical when I hear people proclaim "WE need to do this", and "WE need to do that". I always wonder: who is this "we" you're referring to, and what are YOU doing to make it actually happen? Generally, practical action does not follow the words, and nothing actually happens.

As it stands now, President Obama will sail into the nomination with only the slightest of bumps in the road, provided by - of all people - Randall Terry the anti-abortionist (not some progressive darling). The Republicans will be fighting over unallocated delegates and making backroom arrangements to seal the deal. This should be a lesson for everyone on how (and how not) to run a party nomination process in the future.

63 comments (Latest Comment: 03/22/2012 01:27:30 by TriSec)
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Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 13:14:04
Morning

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 13:21:13
YOu know the one thing I've been finding interesting is the numbers on voter turn out - its just sad

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 13:37:54
good morning!

The voter turnout has been historically low, and that is a story the media rarely talks about.



Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 13:53:50
So, I;m wondering why Chicago isn't airing the SMS show this morning.

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 13:55:13
Quote by Raine:
So, I;m wondering why Chicago isn't airing the SMS show this morning.



that's weird

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 14:09:56
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
So, I;m wondering why Chicago isn't airing the SMS show this morning.



that's weird
they are airing the unfortunately named Dick Kaye show.

Maybe it has to do with the primary in Illinois last night.


Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 14:12:15
FCC decision strikes critical blow to right-wing radio dominance

Hmm. could be interesting. Maybe this is how we got Act Up radio here in DC.

Comment by BobR on 03/21/2012 14:24:44
oh, and by the way...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Livin!!!



Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 14:30:35
Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 14:31:35
Quote by Raine:
FCC decision strikes critical blow to right-wing radio dominance

Hmm. could be interesting. Maybe this is how we got Act Up radio here in DC.



sounds like it could be good for local radio in general

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 14:32:55
YES!!!



Happy Birthday Liv!!



Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 14:33:40



For a group of people who hate Obama so much they sure aren't trying to hard to voting him out of office

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 14:55:12
Quote by Raine:
good morning!

The voter turnout has been historically low, and that is a story the media rarely talks about.




KO mentioned it last night between the Seamus Rommey comments. 35% of polled dog owners would rethink their position on Willard based on his treatment of the Wee Baby Seamus.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 14:56:11
Least I forget, Happy Birthday Livin!




Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 14:57:29
Who POTUS signs back to a deaf student!

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 15:00:43
I really liked the point Bob made in the blog about the progressives puritans.

They simply haven't organized.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 15:02:18
Quote by Raine:
I really liked the point Bob made in the blog about the progressives puritans.

They simply haven't organized.


Yes! They are at best a circular firing squad.

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 15:06:16
Quote by Mondobubba:
Who POTUS signs back to a deaf student!



I love watching the Pres interact with voters. There seems to be just an aurora of good will and caring from all sides (well expect from the asses). You just don't see that at a Mittens or Ricky gathering

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 15:12:18
This is really good news!

A judge has ruled that the state violated the Open Meetings Act in appointing emergency manager Michael Brown.

Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina invalidated Brown's appointment and also reinstated the authority of Flint Mayor Dayne Walling and the Flint City Council at a hearing regarding a lawsuit from a city union representative.


Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 15:43:48
http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/etch_a_sketch-e1332334947841.jpg


Top Romney Adviser Says Romney Can Change His Positions After The Primaries: ‘It’s Almost Like An Etch A Sketch

Comment by Scoopster on 03/21/2012 15:46:01
Mornin' all..

I've been trying to type something for like three hours and I keep falling asleep at my desk!

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 15:46:23
Happy B-Day Liv!!!!!!



Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 15:48:19
Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 15:52:43
Quote by Raine:
Sick Sick Sick.



I feel ill

Comment by livingonli on 03/21/2012 16:03:34
Good day everyone. Thanks for the birthday wishes as I hit the big 4-5. Just starting to wonder where the time goes.

Actually, some of the progressive puritans who hate Obama so much now seem to be going to a "boycott the election" movement, instead of supporting a primary or independent third party candidate, they are apparently just going to sit the election out. Election turnout is going to be needed, at least if we expect to throw the rethugs out of the lower seats since there is much resentment of the uber-far right policies they are pushing.

Comment by Scoopster on 03/21/2012 16:20:01
Anyways, back to what I was trying to type..

Last night I was out REALLY freaking late, and instead of walking a half hour from the nearest bus stop to the house I decided to call my buddy the cab driver.

...who happens to be an absolutely seething right-wing nutjob.

Anyways his whopper of the night was that JP Morgan closed the Vatican's bank account because the Pope DARED to disagree with Obama on abortion.

Comment by Scoopster on 03/21/2012 16:33:30
Oh man I left out the good part!

I kept trying to this guy to explain how the bank thing was connected to Obama & the Pope disagreeing (which he eventually admitted was "just what I think Obama did") he had moved on to the whole GM Bailout bullshit for the umpteenth time.

At that point I finally gave up and went inside. We had been going at it for a half hour, and it was almost 1AM and now I was all wound up. If I had just walked home, I would have gotten there at the same time and saved $7 bucks and a ton of aggravation.

This morning I made the decision to finally boycott the guy. I just can't deal with the nonsense anymore, no matter how convenient his service is.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 16:33:42
Quote by Raine:
Sick Sick Sick.



Wow.

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 17:10:39
Quote by Scoopster:
Oh man I left out the good part!

I kept trying to this guy to explain how the bank thing was connected to Obama & the Pope disagreeing (which he eventually admitted was "just what I think Obama did") he had moved on to the whole GM Bailout bullshit for the umpteenth time.

At that point I finally gave up and went inside. We had been going at it for a half hour, and it was almost 1AM and now I was all wound up. If I had just walked home, I would have gotten there at the same time and saved $7 bucks and a ton of aggravation.

This morning I made the decision to finally boycott the guy. I just can't deal with the nonsense anymore, no matter how convenient his service is.
Jeepers.


Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 17:17:46
Comment by livingonli on 03/21/2012 17:25:15
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 17:30:56
Quote by livingonli:
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.


Yes, I saw. It was breaking news here. The story has its own graphic and everything. Dear local media, Football Jesus going with another team is not breaking news. Breaking news would be for something important.

Comment by livingonli on 03/21/2012 17:37:21
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by livingonli:
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.


Yes, I saw. It was breaking news here. The story has its own graphic and everything. Dear local media, Football Jesus going with another team is not breaking news. Breaking news would be for something important.

Imagine if he had gone to Jacksonville.

Comment by Scoopster on 03/21/2012 17:51:37
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by livingonli:
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.


Yes, I saw. It was breaking news here. The story has its own graphic and everything. Dear local media, Football Jesus going with another team is not breaking news. Breaking news would be for something important.

Heh.. just saw a pair of one-liners pop up :

"There's some irony in tebow going from playing in the stadium closest to heaven (Mile High in Denver) to the stadium closest to hell (Meadowlands in Jersey)"

"Reports are (Jets coach) Rex (Ryan) pushed for Tim because he has great feet."

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 18:25:12
The NFL comes down pretty hard on the Saints....

Williams got the worst of it because the league concluded that he actually administered the program. As Peter King of Sports Illustrated explained in an excellent cover story for the magazine, Williams handed out envelopes full of cash at Saturday night defensive meetings following victories during the 2009 Super Bowl season.

Also, Williams lied to the NFL, likely on multiple occasions, about the bounty system. And he brazenly continued to do it for two full seasons after the league investigated a complaint from the Vikings that the Saints had a $10,000 bounty on Brett Favre during the 2009 NFC title game.

Payton, though not directly involved in the bounty program, was aware of it and didn’t stop it.


Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 18:26:20
Quote by livingonli:
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.
Is this is a deal?

I heard rumblings that the Jets don't want him....


Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 18:27:59
Well it appears I was wrong.

I feel pretty bad for Sanchez to be honest.

Comment by Raine on 03/21/2012 18:34:08
Quote by Raine:
The NFL comes down pretty hard on the Saints....

Williams got the worst of it because the league concluded that he actually administered the program. As Peter King of Sports Illustrated explained in an excellent cover story for the magazine, Williams handed out envelopes full of cash at Saturday night defensive meetings following victories during the 2009 Super Bowl season.

Also, Williams lied to the NFL, likely on multiple occasions, about the bounty system. And he brazenly continued to do it for two full seasons after the league investigated a complaint from the Vikings that the Saints had a $10,000 bounty on Brett Favre during the 2009 NFC title game.

Payton, though not directly involved in the bounty program, was aware of it and didn’t stop it.

I forgot the most important part:
Per a league source, head coach Sean Payton has been suspended for the full year.

But it could have been worse for Payton. Former Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been suspended indefinitely. (Presumably, that means at least a year.)

Also, G.M. Mickey Loomis has been suspended for eight games.


Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 18:52:40
Quote by livingonli:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by livingonli:
Apparently the buzz is Tebow is going to the Jets. So much for that confidence in Sanchez (insert snark here). This will be interesting for one of my co-workers who is a Jets fan but not a Tebow fan.


Yes, I saw. It was breaking news here. The story has its own graphic and everything. Dear local media, Football Jesus going with another team is not breaking news. Breaking news would be for something important.

Imagine if he had gone to Jacksonville.



Livin please don't make thing of such upleasentness. I know it's your birthday and all but still!

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 19:01:23


Still we've got a great cheesecake shot of La McCain.

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 19:05:30
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 19:25:49
Quote by wickedpam:
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?


It got too soapy.

Comment by BobR on 03/21/2012 19:29:48
Quote by Raine:
Well it appears I was wrong.

I feel pretty bad for Sanchez to be honest.

That's pretty dirty Sanchez will not be happy

Punctuate as you see fit.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 19:30:09
Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 19:39:56
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by wickedpam:
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?


It got too soapy.



what, when Lori (who everyone hates) got all Lady MacBeth? Oh, it got better - the farm she is gone. Daryl is a show unto himself and everyone online seems very excited about the appearance of MIchonne (I don't read the comics so I have no idea who she is) Oh and io9.com or gawker have T-Dawg's journal that's pretty funny

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 20:10:00
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by wickedpam:
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?


It got too soapy.



what, when Lori (who everyone hates) got all Lady MacBeth? Oh, it got better - the farm she is gone. Daryl is a show unto himself and everyone online seems very excited about the appearance of MIchonne (I don't read the comics so I have no idea who she is) Oh and io9.com or gawker have T-Dawg's journal that's pretty funny


No, everybody expressing their feelings (Except Daryl) on every single action they have taken since the begining of the zompacalypse. As Elvis said, a little more action and a little less conversation if you please.

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 20:11:59
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Raine:
Well it appears I was wrong.

I feel pretty bad for Sanchez to be honest.

That's pretty dirty Sanchez will not be happy

Punctuate as you see fit.


C'mon Bobber you just wanted to say dirty sanchez.

Comment by wickedpam on 03/21/2012 20:12:10
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by wickedpam:
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?


It got too soapy.



what, when Lori (who everyone hates) got all Lady MacBeth? Oh, it got better - the farm she is gone. Daryl is a show unto himself and everyone online seems very excited about the appearance of MIchonne (I don't read the comics so I have no idea who she is) Oh and io9.com or gawker have T-Dawg's journal that's pretty funny


No, everybody expressing their feelings (Except Daryl) on every single action they have taken since the begining of the zompacalypse. As Elvis said, a little more action and a little less conversation if you please.



I think the last 6 epis got progressively more action oriented (the bar scene was the kick off) - and the finale was all zombie jamborie

Comment by Mondobubba on 03/21/2012 20:14:23
Quote by wickedpam:
So Mondo - Walking Dead - why did you bail?



Also, "Eastbound And Down" is on at the same time.