About Us
Mission Statement
Rules of Conduct
 
Name:
Pswd:
Remember Me
Register
 

DBudget Unchained
Author: BobR    Date: 04/11/2013 12:59:00

Yesterday, President Obama released his budget. It seemed to have something for everyone, which means it also had something for everyone to hate. Republicans love the chained CPI for Social Security, but hate the revenue increases and stimulus spending. For liberals and progressives, it's the opposite. It is truly bi-partisan - something everyone gives lip service to - so the reality is that it is dead in the water.

We'll get to the dreaded chained CPI in a moment. What does the budget have that has Republicans riled up? It cancels the sequestor cuts, and adds some tax increases and spending increases:
In other measures, Obama’s budget would raise the tax on a pack of cigarettes from $1.01 to $1.95 per pack to finance early childhood education schemes.

It would also provide $1.65 billion for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and $4 billion to allow security upgrades following the attack on the US consulate in the Libyan city of Benghazi last September.

The Pentagon said the budget would hold military spending steady but would not account for the cost of the war in Afghanistan — which is expected to surpass $80 billion in the current year.

The plan would also boost funding for major science, health and research programs and find room to sustain Obama’s challenge to NASA to send humans to an asteroid in 2025 and to Mars in 2030.

Among fiscal measures opposed by Republicans, the Obama budget would implement the “Buffett Rule,” which would mandate that households making more than $1 million a year pay at least 30 percent of income in taxes.

If the Republicans want the chained CPI, they will need to take these changes as well. Will President Obama give them the chained CPI and take these other things off the table? Not likely, says Allen Clifton at ForwardProgressives.com:
Since the Summer of 2011, soon after Republicans held the debt ceiling hostage, Obama took a new strategy when it came to dealing with them. He puts the decision on them. He makes them look radical and out of touch. He makes them look unreasonable.

He did it with his jobs bill in 2011. He took the rhetoric Republicans were pushing about jobs needing to be a focus, presented his American Jobs Act, and let Republicans sink when they refused to pass it. He did it with the extension of the payroll tax in December 2011. He did it more recently with the “fiscal cliff” (where he also had offered a chained CPI in his first proposal). Now he’s doing it again.

His first proposal is meant to stir anger in liberals. Get them going. Get them outraged. You know why? Because that’s a great tool for him to say, “See, I proposed something that angered even my own base—and still Republicans were too busy playing politics to accept my deal.”

He knows Republicans won’t accept this deal. Hell, why would they? It calls for tax increases for the wealthy and spending for programs that help the poor—two things Republicans have overwhelmingly opposed in the past few years. But what are they supposed to do? For years they’ve slammed President Obama for not proposing a budget (which is a lie)—now he’s proposed one that can’t be mistaken for anything radically left-wing, because it’s actually angered liberals.

Now they’re stuck. Obama proposed a budget, and it’s pissed off liberals.
But they’ll never support it, because he’s the one who proposed it—Obama knows this.

So there is the possibility that this yet another political move by the President to give the Republicans enough rope to hang themselves. They've already shot it down, so it seems like his budget is DOA. What comes next is anyone's guess, but I suspect it will be a budget that originates and passes in the Senate, then is passed by Dems and a handful of Republicans in the House, and then makes it to the president's desk. I sincerely doubt it will contained chained CPI.

So just what the heck is this dreaded chained CPI? It's simply a different way to calculate cost of living increases:
Chained CPI is shorthand for “Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.” In short, it’s a way to index spending and taxes — including Social Security benefits — to the rate of inflation, or the rise in prices over time. But it’s not the only way.

What’s important in the context of the debate over Obama’s budget is that chained CPI would mean Social Security benefits would increase at a slower rate than they do using the current index.

As our friends over at Wonkblog pointed out last year, Social Security benefits are currently calculated using CPI-W, or the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. (Yes, that’s a mouthful.) Over time, benefit levels tick up based on CPI-W, to keep up with the fact that a dollar twenty years ago is not worth what it is today.

Here’s the bottom line: Using chained CPI instead of CPI-W means the rate at which those benefits tick up would be slower, because the former reflects substitutions consumers would make in response to rising prices of certain items.Therein lies the “chained” part of the name. The metric utilizes a basket of goods and services that are measured changes from month to month; much like a daisy chain. If the cost of a certain form of transportation goes up, for example, people might switch to another kind. This kind of “substitution” is part of what is factored into chained CPI.

So any talk of this being a "cut" to benefits is not exactly accurate - it's more like a slower increase, which - over time - might make it a little harder to enjoy the same level of living. How much have the benefits increased? It certainly depends on the timeframe, but because of the recession, they have not increased very much over the last 5 years, because the cost of living (based on their calculations) has remained largely stagnate.

There's also the reality that if the Democrats retake the House in 2014, they can change the Social Security index back, and very little effect would have been felt.

That's assuming the President's budget will be passed, which it won't, which makes all this moot.
 

50 comments (Latest Comment: 04/11/2013 21:14:36 by livingonli)
   Perma Link

Share This!

Furl it!
Spurl
NewsVine
Reddit
Technorati

Add a Comment

Please login to add a comment...


Comments:

Order comments Newest to Oldest  Refresh Comments

Comment by wickedpam on 04/11/2013 13:00:42
Morning

Still

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 13:05:40
Morning.

Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 13:11:33
good morning!

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 13:13:00
Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 13:23:59


I'm a hot pepper afficionado myself, but I think that's a tad ridiculous. I find jalapenos mild these days at the 8,000 scovilles referenced.

I prefer the sauce side of the spectrum, but I find the "357 magnum" sauce that I have (at 357,000 scovilles) to be more than sufficient. The merest splash, say a dot roughly this big (----) is more than enough to warm a bowl of chili almost to the point of inedibility. I rarely use that for anything - I have fewer scovilles in many sauces that are much more flavorful than the distilled bits of nuclear control rod that most hot sauces seem to taste like these days.



Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 13:28:57
Quote by TriSec:


I'm a hot pepper afficionado myself, but I think that's a tad ridiculous. I find jalapenos mild these days at the 8,000 scovilles referenced.

I prefer the sauce side of the spectrum, but I find the "357 magnum" sauce that I have (at 357,000 scovilles) to be more than sufficient. The merest splash, say a dot roughly this big (----) is more than enough to warm a bowl of chili almost to the point of inedibility. I rarely use that for anything - I have fewer scovilles in many sauces that are much more flavorful than the distilled bits of nuclear control rod that most hot sauces seem to taste like these days.



Tri, you actually anticipated my follow up comment. Which was going to be about the heat of the sauce numbing your mouth and tongue to point you can't taste the flavor of the pepper itself.

BTW I am your datyl pepper connection. There are many fine craft sauce makers in these parts that specialise in the wondrous datyl!

Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 13:33:02
I'll taste the ultra-hot stuff just for the "manliness factor", but like I said, I don't have many that I use on a regular basis.

I'm actually quite fond of Thai Sriracha sauce, which is not even as hot as a jalapeno, but it has a nice flavor that doesn't overpower things.



Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 13:37:01
Wow, so Ali Velchi left CNN to go to Current/Al jazeera America?

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 13:40:00
Quote by TriSec:
I'll taste the ultra-hot stuff just for the "manliness factor", but like I said, I don't have many that I use on a regular basis.

I'm actually quite fond of Thai Sriracha sauce, which is not even as hot as a jalapeno, but it has a nice flavor that doesn't overpower things.




Have you tried the Lay's Sriracha flavored chips? Can't be worse than the chicken and waffle flavored ones.

Comment by wickedpam on 04/11/2013 13:51:39
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by TriSec:
I'll taste the ultra-hot stuff just for the "manliness factor", but like I said, I don't have many that I use on a regular basis.

I'm actually quite fond of Thai Sriracha sauce, which is not even as hot as a jalapeno, but it has a nice flavor that doesn't overpower things.




Have you tried the Lay's Sriracha flavored chips? Can't be worse than the chicken and waffle flavored ones.


Mom tried those chicken & waffles chips said they were awful. I want to try the Herr's Ketchup chips. (Herr's also has Baby Back Ribs, Steakhouse and one other new chip on the shelves)

Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 14:00:13
Ketchup chips are pretty good. There's a company up in Nova Scotia that makes them, when I was a regular visitor that was one of the regional yummies we always were after at the local junk food emporium.



Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 14:03:29
And "Chicken and waffles" will have to be filed under "Yet another Southern food this Yankee just doesn't get."

Can anyone tell me what on earth a Scuppernong grape is?

Grapes come in two kinds..."Concord" and "wine".

Comment by wickedpam on 04/11/2013 14:03:34
Quote by TriSec:
Ketchup chips are pretty good. There's a company up in Nova Scotia that makes them, when I was a regular visitor that was one of the regional yummies we always were after at the local junk food emporium.



that settles it I'm gettin' a bag next time we go to the Teeter (and can actually start eating crunchy things again)


Comment by BobR on 04/11/2013 14:04:34
d'Blog is posted!

Comment by BobR on 04/11/2013 14:06:15
Quote by TriSec:
And "Chicken and waffles" will have to be filed under "Yet another Southern food this Yankee just doesn't get."

Can anyone tell me what on earth a Scuppernong grape is?

Grapes come in two kinds..."Concord" and "wine".

Scuppernongs and muscadines are similar to concords in that they are large grapes with tough skins. The tough skins help them survive the brutal heat of southern summers. Scuppernongs are white grapes and muscadines tend to be red. Both are used to make sweet dessert wines.

Comment by BobR on 04/11/2013 14:08:26
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by TriSec:


I'm a hot pepper afficionado myself, but I think that's a tad ridiculous. I find jalapenos mild these days at the 8,000 scovilles referenced.

I prefer the sauce side of the spectrum, but I find the "357 magnum" sauce that I have (at 357,000 scovilles) to be more than sufficient. The merest splash, say a dot roughly this big (----) is more than enough to warm a bowl of chili almost to the point of inedibility. I rarely use that for anything - I have fewer scovilles in many sauces that are much more flavorful than the distilled bits of nuclear control rod that most hot sauces seem to taste like these days.


Tri, you actually anticipated my follow up comment. Which was going to be about the heat of the sauce numbing your mouth and tongue to point you can't taste the flavor of the pepper itself.

BTW I am your datyl pepper connection. There are many fine craft sauce makers in these parts that specialise in the wondrous datyl!

Call me a hot sauce luddite, but I love plain ol' tabasco sauce, mainly for the flavor. The garlic tabasco is divine in chili. .

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 14:10:49
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by TriSec:
I'll taste the ultra-hot stuff just for the "manliness factor", but like I said, I don't have many that I use on a regular basis.

I'm actually quite fond of Thai Sriracha sauce, which is not even as hot as a jalapeno, but it has a nice flavor that doesn't overpower things.




Have you tried the Lay's Sriracha flavored chips? Can't be worse than the chicken and waffle flavored ones.


Mom tried those chicken & waffles chips said they were awful. I want to try the Herr's Ketchup chips. (Herr's also has Baby Back Ribs, Steakhouse and one other new chip on the shelves)


Mom's right, they are awful.


Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 14:12:23
Quote by TriSec:
And "Chicken and waffles" will have to be filed under "Yet another Southern food this Yankee just doesn't get."

Can anyone tell me what on earth a Scuppernong grape is?

Grapes come in two kinds..."Concord" and "wine".



Chicken and waffles isn't southern, it is soul food. If you find yourself in Los Angeles be sure to visit Roscoe's

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 14:27:42
As always, Archer provides a comment:




Comment by Scoopster on 04/11/2013 14:29:14
Mornin' all.. <-bagel

Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by TriSec:
Ketchup chips are pretty good. There's a company up in Nova Scotia that makes them, when I was a regular visitor that was one of the regional yummies we always were after at the local junk food emporium.


that settles it I'm gettin' a bag next time we go to the Teeter (and can actually start eating crunchy things again)

The cheesy garlic bread ones are AMAZING..

Comment by Scoopster on 04/11/2013 14:31:27
My mom gave me her copy of the Time Magazine that was devoted to the excessive cost of healthcare in the US.. if you haven't read it I highly recommend picking it up.

Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 14:31:54
Quote by BobR:
d'Blog is posted!
I really appreciate this explanation today.

I have been very very confused about all of this SSI stuff.


Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 14:32:23
ANd btw, nice Django reference.

Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 14:38:16
"Chained CPI" has made my eyes glaze over on numerous ocassions.

Leave it to Bob to make it understandable for us financial simpletons.



Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 14:48:41
"Amendment" is one of those words that always has the angry red squiggle under it whenever I type.

<< ammendment >> Grunt.

(writing Saturday's blog already. Guess what it's about, go on!)



Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 14:53:43
Rem-dawg has a relapse...



(I know it's a local story, but damn. In other news, the Red Sox still stink.)



Comment by BobR on 04/11/2013 14:57:19
Quote by TriSec:
"Chained CPI" has made my eyes glaze over on numerous ocassions.

Leave it to Bob to make it understandable for us financial simpletons.


I can't take credit - I just copied and pasted.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 14:57:24
Quote by TriSec:
Rem-dawg has a relapse...



(I know it's a local story, but damn. In other news, the Red Sox still stink.)



Why do they stink Sparky?


Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 15:41:29



Mmmm, seems to me that John McCain is not somebody you would want to make angry.


Comment by Scoopster on 04/11/2013 15:52:24
Fantastic blog today, Bobber. Quite a level-headed contrast to some of the extreme handwringing rants going on at the Great Orange Satan.

Sometimes when we get pissed about all the potential caving that politicians do, we lose sight of the fact that, guess what.. this is politics. And Obama has truly become a quick study master of the trade.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 16:02:36
Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 16:07:52
Looks like the Gun background check made it pas the Senate filibuster.

::fingers crossed::

Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 16:08:51
Quote by Scoopster:
Fantastic blog today, Bobber. Quite a level-headed contrast to some of the extreme handwringing rants going on at the Great Orange Satan.

Sometimes when we get pissed about all the potential caving that politicians do, we lose sight of the fact that, guess what.. this is politics. And Obama has truly become a quick study master of the trade.


This is what I am finally starting to understand with this entire CCPI thing. I;m really glad he wrote this.


Comment by Will in Chicago on 04/11/2013 16:11:50
Good morning, bloggers!! BobR, thanks for a great blog. If this budget is a political ploy, it has enraged many of Obama's supporters who wonder if he is playing a game, truly supports changes to the social safety net. A few question his ties to Wall Street, where many of the financial types would love to get their hands on Social Security. My fear is that we will have a repeat of 2010 in 2014, as many people who would vote for Democratic candidates stay home in disgust. A friend who has worked with several Democratic candidates on their campaigns is very disappointed in the President's budget -- even if the GOP does nothing as I suspect. I think that the President will need to rally his base. It is still early enough to tell voters that the GOP does not accept anything, but I hate putting Chained CPI on the table.

Thom Hartmann has commented on chained CPI and doubts that the GOP will go for it. I argue that as older Americans spend far more on medicine and medical care than their younger peers, the chained CPI is a a bad idea.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 16:12:03
There is an article in Slate on how to make golf exciting. Yeah, that's good start. How about snipers with paint ball guns in the tree along the fairways? Serpentine, Tiger! Serpentine. Now that would make golf exciting.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 04/11/2013 16:18:00
Yesterday, I had an easy day of subbing. (There was a student teacher in the room, and state law requires a certified teacher in the room with student teachers. So, I got paid to relax.)

In some bad news, I heard from my interview on Tuesday at a Chicago Public High School. The English Department Chairman wrote: "Thank you for coming prepared for the interview!! However, we have decided to go in another direction." C'est la vie.

However, I did find some positions to apply to after I get some housework done here. Several are for Massachusetts, including an English teacher position at Waltham High School. So, TriSec, I may be seeing you in a few months.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 04/11/2013 16:25:49
In some news for Israel, Haaretz reports about women who sought to worship at the Western Wall, the holiest site in Judaism where unfortunately the ultra-Orthodox determine who can worship and how. (The deals that Israel cut with the Orthodox in 1948 need to change. While we are at it, ending the occupation and helping to establish a just and lasting peace with the Palestinian people is critical.)

Here is the story:

Jerusalem court releases women detained at Western Wall

The five women who were detained by Jerusalem Police on Thursday for wearing tallitot (prayer shawls) and tefillin (phylacteries) at the Western Wall were released after several hours of questioning.

An ultra-Orthodox man was also detained in the incident, which occurred during the monthly Women of the Wall prayer service at Judaism's holiest site.

The women were brought to the Jerusalem Magistrate's Court in the Russian Compound before their release, but managed to evade restraining orders that would have prevented them from accessing the site for three months.

Such restraining orders have been issued in the past - though rarely - against members of the Women of the Wall, an activist groups advocating gender equality at the Western Wall.
Jerusalem Magistrate Court Judge Sharon Bavli-Larry noted in her decision to release the women that it was not they who incited clashes that morning, but rather an ultra-Orthodox woman.
Judge rules that the five women who were arrested for wearing prayer shawls at the Western Wall did not spark clashes, but were incited by an ultra-Orthodox women.



Comment by TriSec on 04/11/2013 17:04:46
TriSec is trying to read the tea leaves, but it seems likely that I will NOT be running for office this cycle.

I am, however, working for Councilor Tom Stanley's re-election, primarily as a prelude for his 2015 Mayoral run. I have already told him that I want his seat, should he win.



Comment by livingonli on 04/11/2013 17:36:41
Good day, folks. Cold is making me feel like shit today.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 17:49:47
You know that meme on facebook with the fresh wholesome food and thug life comments? There's a website.

Comment by Raine on 04/11/2013 17:57:56
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, folks. Cold is making me feel like shit today.

Colds suck.

Comment by livingonli on 04/11/2013 17:59:50
Quote by Raine:
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, folks. Cold is making me feel like shit today.

Colds suck.

Yes, they do.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 18:08:57
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, folks. Cold is making me feel like shit today.



Blargh! As my whimsically called "seasonal allergies" are kicking up, I feel you pain sir. Target brand Loratadine (Claratin, people look it up) is my new best friend.

Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 20:38:32
Reasons to hate the Masters.


... In fact, the tournament soon became a frivolous affair, featuring downtown parades, beauty pageants, trick-shot contests, gambling, and the yearly treat offered to club members of a battle royal, in which a half-dozen young black men were paraded into a boxing ring and told to slug it out, blindfolded, until only one was left standing (James Brown, the future soul singer and an Augusta native, was one such youth; not surprisingly, he enjoyed the mayhem).


Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 21:11:13
Comment by Mondobubba on 04/11/2013 21:11:46
I've mused, bitches!

Comment by livingonli on 04/11/2013 21:14:36

I think Hollywood has just quit making new movies and now will just remake it what it cranked out in the past.