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Theory Reality
Author: BobR
Date: 2014-03-19 10:31:21
The missing plane of Malaysian Airlines flight 370 has certainly captured the imagination of the public. It's so odd for jetliners to simply disappear without a trace (and it wasn't even in the Bermuda Triangle). Questions of how inevitably lead to questions of why, and those are the hardest to discern without getting the answer straight from the horse's mouth.
There have been a lot of ideas floated around, from hijacking to terrorism to an electrical fire to mid-air identity swaps. Little snippets of facts about the pilots' personal lives get held aloft like championship trophies, and then dissected and examined for potential insight. There are two key facts, though that make this curious: The plane's flight path was changed 12 minutes before the last voice transmission, and residents in the Maldives reported a low flying jet matching the description of the "Lost" plane.
All of this is creating a plethora of conspiracy theories. There are two big problems with conspiracy theories. One is that they start with a preconceived notion, and look for facts that support it and purposely marginalize facts that don't. That is unsound scientific practice. The second problem is that name "theory", which is a descriptor of sound scientific examination. A much better descriptor would be "speculation".
Using the term "theory" degrades a term which has a much higher standard of proof in the scientific world. The theory of gravity is one example - we know gravity exists, we just don't know what causes it. Nonetheless, we can maintain satelites in geosynchronous orbit because we know how it works in real life. The theory of evolution is another. We know species evolve, either via natural or man-made selection. The new "Cosmos" show showed the example of the wolf being selectively bred, first to create domesticated dogs, and later to create (and maintain) the various breeds.
We have another example in real life for how it happens in the "wild". Crops are routinely either selectively bred or genetically engineered to be pest-resistant. This was done with corn to thwart the rootworm. Just like with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, all it takes is a few hardy survivors to pass on their resistance to their offspring, and boom: you get rootworms that can chow on the corn that was bred to kill it. Now this scourge is once again on the rebound, and farmers have no recourse. The theory of evolution predicts this, and is once again proven correct.
Another important theory that scientists have been struggling to prove may a lot closer to being proven: the Big Bang. This theoretical origin of the universe itself has been studied for decades. Astronomers have finally captured evidence of the gravity waves that were predicted years ago, but never found. This discovery is another piece of the puzzle that fits. The evidence is very solid, and provides even more proof that the Big Bang is the best explanation for the origin of our universe.
And yet - we still call it a "theory", even though there is much more measurable proof of this than there is for some of the wacky theories surrounding the vanished plane. Those speculations don't deserve the name "theory". It's time for a new name that more accurately describes what they are. Leave "theory" to the scientists with researched and peer-reviewed evidence.
There have been a lot of ideas floated around, from hijacking to terrorism to an electrical fire to mid-air identity swaps. Little snippets of facts about the pilots' personal lives get held aloft like championship trophies, and then dissected and examined for potential insight. There are two key facts, though that make this curious: The plane's flight path was changed 12 minutes before the last voice transmission, and residents in the Maldives reported a low flying jet matching the description of the "Lost" plane.
All of this is creating a plethora of conspiracy theories. There are two big problems with conspiracy theories. One is that they start with a preconceived notion, and look for facts that support it and purposely marginalize facts that don't. That is unsound scientific practice. The second problem is that name "theory", which is a descriptor of sound scientific examination. A much better descriptor would be "speculation".
Using the term "theory" degrades a term which has a much higher standard of proof in the scientific world. The theory of gravity is one example - we know gravity exists, we just don't know what causes it. Nonetheless, we can maintain satelites in geosynchronous orbit because we know how it works in real life. The theory of evolution is another. We know species evolve, either via natural or man-made selection. The new "Cosmos" show showed the example of the wolf being selectively bred, first to create domesticated dogs, and later to create (and maintain) the various breeds.
We have another example in real life for how it happens in the "wild". Crops are routinely either selectively bred or genetically engineered to be pest-resistant. This was done with corn to thwart the rootworm. Just like with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, all it takes is a few hardy survivors to pass on their resistance to their offspring, and boom: you get rootworms that can chow on the corn that was bred to kill it. Now this scourge is once again on the rebound, and farmers have no recourse. The theory of evolution predicts this, and is once again proven correct.
Another important theory that scientists have been struggling to prove may a lot closer to being proven: the Big Bang. This theoretical origin of the universe itself has been studied for decades. Astronomers have finally captured evidence of the gravity waves that were predicted years ago, but never found. This discovery is another piece of the puzzle that fits. The evidence is very solid, and provides even more proof that the Big Bang is the best explanation for the origin of our universe.
And yet - we still call it a "theory", even though there is much more measurable proof of this than there is for some of the wacky theories surrounding the vanished plane. Those speculations don't deserve the name "theory". It's time for a new name that more accurately describes what they are. Leave "theory" to the scientists with researched and peer-reviewed evidence.
Comments:
Order comments Newest to Oldest Refresh Comments
Comment by 
Raine on 03/19/2014 12:33:50
Good morning!
I really liked the blog today.
Raine on 03/19/2014 12:33:50
Good morning! I really liked the blog today.
Comment by 
Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 12:55:15
Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 12:55:15
Yay for science-y stuff.
Comment by 
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 13:00:06
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 13:00:06
Mornin' all.. 
Watched the latest episode of Cosmos last night. That didn't take long! Did anyone else notice the shout-out to global warming?
Watched the latest episode of Cosmos last night. That didn't take long! Did anyone else notice the shout-out to global warming?
Comment by 
wickedpam on 03/19/2014 13:04:44
wickedpam on 03/19/2014 13:04:44
Morning 
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 13:44:22
BTW Mala, I am only one week behind in Glee. Hopefully we'll be watching tonite. I got things to say....
Raine on 03/19/2014 13:44:22
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
BTW Mala, I am only one week behind in Glee. Hopefully we'll be watching tonite. I got things to say....
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 13:45:25
I amy have missed a specific mention, but I felt like the entire thing was unintentionally shade to creationists and climate deniers.
Raine on 03/19/2014 13:45:25
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all..
Watched the latest episode of Cosmos last night. That didn't take long! Did anyone else notice the shout-out to global warming?
Comment by wickedpam on 03/19/2014 13:49:02
I've missed like 2 epi's since it came back - its really lost its mojo. I'm with ya on the meh.
wickedpam on 03/19/2014 13:49:02
Quote by Raine:Quote by wickedpam:
Morning
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
BTW Mala, I am only one week behind in Glee. Hopefully we'll be watching tonite. I got things to say....
I've missed like 2 epi's since it came back - its really lost its mojo. I'm with ya on the meh.
Comment by Scoopster on 03/19/2014 13:50:45
It was the part when he's talking about the first major extinction event.. increased volcanic activity igniting underground coal deposits, which drove greenhouse gases through the roof & caused ocean currents to shut off. I don't recall if he mentioned anything at that point about melting polar ice tho..
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 13:50:45
Quote by Raine:I may have missed a specific mention, but I felt like the entire thing was unintentionally shade to creationists and climate deniers.Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all..
Watched the latest episode of Cosmos last night. That didn't take long! Did anyone else notice the shout-out to global warming?
It was the part when he's talking about the first major extinction event.. increased volcanic activity igniting underground coal deposits, which drove greenhouse gases through the roof & caused ocean currents to shut off. I don't recall if he mentioned anything at that point about melting polar ice tho..
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 13:53:04
Raine on 03/19/2014 13:53:04
Today's blog dovetails perfectly with this article at Raw Story.
I loved reading this after I read Bobbers post (I even went back to make sure this wasn't linked in the post!)
I loved reading this after I read Bobbers post (I even went back to make sure this wasn't linked in the post!)
The wingnut panic over the show Cosmos is incredibly amusing to me. It’s understandable, because Neil deGrasse Tyson is really good at being clear and concise about science and he eviscerates right wing attempts to muddy the waters with precision. I particularly liked this quote from an interview on Inquiring Minds: “I claim that all those who think they can cherry-pick science simply don’t understand how science works,†because science, unlike theology or musical taste, isn’t a matter of just taking what you like and leaving the rest behind. What is interesting—and threatening—about Cosmos is it asserts interconnectedness of science. Evolution and the “big bang†theory are inseparable, and knowing how old and vast the universe is makes it much, much easier to understand how evolution works.
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 13:54:24
AHH! yes!
Raine on 03/19/2014 13:54:24
Quote by Scoopster:Quote by Raine:I may have missed a specific mention, but I felt like the entire thing was unintentionally shade to creationists and climate deniers.Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all..
Watched the latest episode of Cosmos last night. That didn't take long! Did anyone else notice the shout-out to global warming?
It was the part when he's talking about the first major extinction event.. increased volcanic activity igniting underground coal deposits, which drove greenhouse gases through the roof & caused ocean currents to shut off. I don't recall if he mentioned anything at that point about melting polar ice tho..
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 13:57:25
Remember when I said it should have been two shows?
I stand by that. Lima has been severely neglected. I said it last night, I would be happy if they continued on with *Glee* NY.
(could be something like the Law & Order franchise)
Raine on 03/19/2014 13:57:25
Quote by wickedpam:Quote by Raine:Quote by wickedpam:
Morning
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
BTW Mala, I am only one week behind in Glee. Hopefully we'll be watching tonite. I got things to say....
I've missed like 2 epi's since it came back - its really lost its mojo. I'm with ya on the meh.
I stand by that. Lima has been severely neglected. I said it last night, I would be happy if they continued on with *Glee* NY.
(could be something like the Law & Order franchise)
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 14:06:35
Raine on 03/19/2014 14:06:35
Paul Ryan is ___________ (insert your word here)
I would REALLY like to know what an inner city man is.
HEll, I'd like for ONE PERSON -- just one person have the courage to tell me what the hell inner city REALLY means...
I would REALLY like to know what an inner city man is.
HEll, I'd like for ONE PERSON -- just one person have the courage to tell me what the hell inner city REALLY means...
Comment by wickedpam on 03/19/2014 14:15:05
Agreed.
Lima has also been impacted by very bland new characters. And NY - well, seems a little too perfect that Rachel is starring in Funny Girl. I liked it better when the focused on collage.
wickedpam on 03/19/2014 14:15:05
Quote by Raine:Remember when I said it should have been two shows?Quote by wickedpam:Quote by Raine:Quote by wickedpam:
Morning
Just waiting to hear if it was Ben and Juliet who saw the plane in the "maldives". Any reports of a man in black or a guy calling himself Jacob?
BTW Mala, I am only one week behind in Glee. Hopefully we'll be watching tonite. I got things to say....
I've missed like 2 epi's since it came back - its really lost its mojo. I'm with ya on the meh.
I stand by that. Lima has been severely neglected. I said it last night, I would be happy if they continued on with *Glee* NY.
(could be something like the Law & Order franchise)
Agreed.
Lima has also been impacted by very bland new characters. And NY - well, seems a little too perfect that Rachel is starring in Funny Girl. I liked it better when the focused on collage.
Comment by Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 14:23:28
Paul Ryan is a race baiting douche bag.
Paul Ryan is a cynical cheap jack hustler with no moral compass.
Paul Ryan is a lying snake.
Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 14:23:28
Quote by Raine:
Paul Ryan is ___________ (insert your word here)
I would REALLY like to know what an inner city man is.
HEll, I'd like for ONE PERSON -- just one person have the courage to tell me what the hell inner city REALLY means...
Paul Ryan is a race baiting douche bag.
Paul Ryan is a cynical cheap jack hustler with no moral compass.
Paul Ryan is a lying snake.
Comment by 
BobR on 03/19/2014 14:29:06
"inner city" is where the blacks live... you know - the ones on welfare who do drugs and carry guns and rob the hard-working white people.
BobR on 03/19/2014 14:29:06
Quote by Raine:
Paul Ryan is ___________ (insert your word here)
I would REALLY like to know what an inner city man is.
HEll, I'd like for ONE PERSON -- just one person have the courage to tell me what the hell inner city REALLY means...
"inner city" is where the blacks live... you know - the ones on welfare who do drugs and carry guns and rob the hard-working white people.
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 14:37:08
inner city.
code word for the ghetto...
Raine on 03/19/2014 14:37:08
Quote by BobR:Quote by Raine:
Paul Ryan is ___________ (insert your word here)
I would REALLY like to know what an inner city man is.
HEll, I'd like for ONE PERSON -- just one person have the courage to tell me what the hell inner city REALLY means...
"inner city" is where the blacks live... you know - the ones on welfare who do drugs and carry guns and rob the hard-working white people.
inner city.
code word for the ghetto...
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 14:39:12
Raine on 03/19/2014 14:39:12
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 14:59:03
Raine on 03/19/2014 14:59:03
Billy from Texas... WT(ever loving) F?
Comment by Scoopster on 03/19/2014 15:28:18
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 15:28:18
MS woman to go on trial, 8 years after the fact, for giving birth to stillborn baby (aka 'killing a fetus by smoking crack')
I really don't need to read this kind of shit. Ever.
I really don't need to read this kind of shit. Ever.
Comment by Scoopster on 03/19/2014 15:40:09
That donut is really one of these..
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 15:40:09
That donut is really one of these..
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 15:54:17
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 15:54:17
Hello, bloggers!!
BobR, I fear that we have people who do not understand what the word theory means and confuses it with a hunch. Great blog. (Is it okay if I repost my recent entries at DemocracyInteractive.com
.
As for Paul Ryan, he is playing to basest instincts of his base.
BobR, I fear that we have people who do not understand what the word theory means and confuses it with a hunch. Great blog. (Is it okay if I repost my recent entries at DemocracyInteractive.com
.
As for Paul Ryan, he is playing to basest instincts of his base.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 16:18:03
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 16:18:03
Vernita Gray, who with her partner Pat Ewert was part of the first same sex couple in Illinois to marry, has died. Here is the story from the Windy City Times, which is being cited on WGN-TV and many other news sites.
May her memory be for a blessing and may Pat Ewert and those closest to Vernita Gray be comforted.
PASSAGES Vernita Gray, longtime activist, dies
2014-03-19
CHICAGO ” Vernita Gray, one of Chicago's longest and most prolific activists for LGBT rights, has died. She was 65.
Gray and wife Pat Ewert were the first same-sex couple married legally in Illinois, Nov. 27, 2013, after winning a court victory because of Gray's critical health situation. That paved the way for additional court rulings that hastened marriage in Illinois ahead of the original June 1, 2014 implementation of full marriage equality in the state.
Gray, a native Chicagoan, came out as a lesbian soon after she attended the 1969 Woodstock music concert in New York, where she learned about the Stonewall Riots.
A longtime cancer survivor, Gray lost her battle March 18 just before midnight, with her wife by her side. Friends and family had visited with Gray in her final weeks, as she said her goodbyes. She was laughing and giving advice up until the end.
Gray's cultural and activist interests were varied. She was a poet who knew how to rally the troops at events, including anti-violence marches and most recently the Oct. 22 March on Springfield for Marriage Equality, her last public speaking engagement.
She worked in the Cook County State's Attorney's Office for 18 years, including in the position of victim/witness assistant, where she helped LGBT crime survivors, and as an outreach worker on LGBT issues. Prior to that, she owned the popular Sol Sands restaurant in Uptown.
May her memory be for a blessing and may Pat Ewert and those closest to Vernita Gray be comforted.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:13:57
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:13:57
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:22:41
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:22:41
Comment by 
clintster on 03/19/2014 17:28:03
clintster on 03/19/2014 17:28:03
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:38:24
I believe that this sums up my reaction:
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 17:38:24
Quote by clintster:
And the GOP outreach continues: they're recruiting hipsters.
I believe that this sums up my reaction:
Comment by wickedpam on 03/19/2014 17:48:30
did they not get the memo that hipster = douchebag ?
wickedpam on 03/19/2014 17:48:30
Quote by clintster:
And the GOP outreach continues: they're recruiting hipsters.
did they not get the memo that hipster = douchebag ?
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 17:55:00
You wrote it, you can repost it!
Raine on 03/19/2014 17:55:00
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Hello, bloggers!!
BobR, I fear that we have people who do not understand what the word theory means and confuses it with a hunch. Great blog. (Is it okay if I repost my recent entries at DemocracyInteractive.com
.
As for Paul Ryan, he is playing to basest instincts of his base.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 18:01:27
Thanks. I always believe in asking. Also, that site will get a redesign soon, so some new content always helps.
Hopefully, my entries were not too grim. (Okay, not quite as grim as the guest on Thom Hartmann who believes the extinction of humanity will happen in the next 30 years, but still grim.)
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 18:01:27
Quote by Raine:You wrote it, you can repost it!Quote by Will in Chicago:
Hello, bloggers!!
BobR, I fear that we have people who do not understand what the word theory means and confuses it with a hunch. Great blog. (Is it okay if I repost my recent entries at DemocracyInteractive.com
.
As for Paul Ryan, he is playing to basest instincts of his base.
Thanks. I always believe in asking. Also, that site will get a redesign soon, so some new content always helps.
Hopefully, my entries were not too grim. (Okay, not quite as grim as the guest on Thom Hartmann who believes the extinction of humanity will happen in the next 30 years, but still grim.)
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 18:11:28
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 18:11:28
Late last night, I added a post to the blog about President Obama awarding some over due Medals of Honor. I found this today, and have to ask why?
Mentally ill homeless vet ˜essentially baked to death" in New York City jail cell
Mentally ill homeless vet ˜essentially baked to death" in New York City jail cell
Comment by Scoopster on 03/19/2014 18:40:42
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 18:40:42
Comment by Raine on 03/19/2014 18:51:09
Not sure what the Obama connection is will.
I will say this, NO HUMAN, especially American citizens, should ever die under such circumstances.
|
Sorry if this pisses people off, but this isn't a vet issue. This is a homeless issue.
Raine on 03/19/2014 18:51:09
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Late last night, I added a post to the blog about President Obama awarding some over due Medals of Honor. I found this today, and have to ask why?
Mentally ill homeless vet ‘essentially baked to death’ in New York City jail cell
I will say this, NO HUMAN, especially American citizens, should ever die under such circumstances.
|
Sorry if this pisses people off, but this isn't a vet issue. This is a homeless issue.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 19:16:13
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 19:16:13
Double post, so here is Charles Pierce's excellent rant on Bill Kristol:
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 19:24:18
Raine, the Obama reference was to this story that I posted yesterday. U.S. honors 24 minority veterans from World War Two, Korea and Vietnam
This was an example of justice done to people who were ignored. The story about the homeless man who happened to be a veteran was an injustice. Hence, the huge contrast between the two news stories. The first story made me proud of my country, the second made me feel ashamed.
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 19:24:18
Quote by Raine:Not sure what the Obama connection is will.Quote by Will in Chicago:
Late last night, I added a post to the blog about President Obama awarding some over due Medals of Honor. I found this today, and have to ask why?
Mentally ill homeless vet ‘essentially baked to death’ in New York City jail cell
I will say this, NO HUMAN, especially American citizens, should ever die under such circumstances.
|
Sorry if this pisses people off, but this isn't a vet issue. This is a homeless issue.
Raine, the Obama reference was to this story that I posted yesterday. U.S. honors 24 minority veterans from World War Two, Korea and Vietnam
This was an example of justice done to people who were ignored. The story about the homeless man who happened to be a veteran was an injustice. Hence, the huge contrast between the two news stories. The first story made me proud of my country, the second made me feel ashamed.
Comment by Scoopster on 03/19/2014 19:52:33
Scoopster on 03/19/2014 19:52:33
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Double post, so here is Charles Pierce's excellent rant on Bill Kristol:
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
Comment by 
livingonli on 03/19/2014 20:26:53
livingonli on 03/19/2014 20:26:53
Good day, folks. Having to squeeze my last few bucks until pay day and I needed gas so I am just hoping to get too and from work tonight when I had to go in for a meeting earlier today. I wish I could win the jackpot somewhere because my life and luck sucks.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 20:27:36
I think that you can improve the accuracy of Bill Kristol's predictions by generously inserting the word "not" in several key places. He had a lot of correction items when he was with the New York Times.
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 20:27:36
Quote by Scoopster:Quote by Will in Chicago:
Double post, so here is Charles Pierce's excellent rant on Bill Kristol:
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
I think that you can improve the accuracy of Bill Kristol's predictions by generously inserting the word "not" in several key places. He had a lot of correction items when he was with the New York Times.
Comment by Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 21:41:17
"Ideological Molokai..."
That is a great metaphor.
Mondobubba on 03/19/2014 21:41:17
Quote by Scoopster:Quote by Will in Chicago:
Double post, so here is Charles Pierce's excellent rant on Bill Kristol:
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
"Ideological Molokai..."
That is a great metaphor.
Comment by Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 21:51:12
Yes, this was truly an epic rant. It is a shame that Kristol is likely never to read it or hear it.
Will in Chicago on 03/19/2014 21:51:12
Quote by Mondobubba:Quote by Scoopster:Quote by Will in Chicago:
Double post, so here is Charles Pierce's excellent rant on Bill Kristol:
This Just In From Our Sociopath Bureau
"Ideological Molokai..."
Yes, this was truly an epic rant. It is a shame that Kristol is likely never to read it or hear it.