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One Down - 49 To Go
Author: BobR    Date: 02/03/2016 14:06:55

It's been a couple days since the Iowa caucuses, and the results will depend upon whom you talk to. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won, but really - Marco Rubio won because he beat expectations. Trump lost, but gave an uncharacteristic nice concession "speech". On the Democratic side, Clinton won, even though it was pretty much a tie, but actually Sanders won because he too beat expectations. If your head is spinning, it's because of all the spin coming from the campaigns and their supporters.

The results on the Republican side were fairly definitive. There was no real controversy with the results, nor with the process used to create them. The Democratic side, however, is a whole 'nuther story...

The results (as we have them of this writing) show a virtual tie:

Clinton: (49.9%) 23 Delegates
Sanders: (49.6%) 21 Delegates
O'Malley: (0.6%) 0 Delegates

As we've seen leading up to this moment, there are rabid supporters for both Clinton and Sanders, and they are all stinking up the blogosphere with their name-calling, taunting, paranoid conspiracy theories, and general bad behavior and absolutist rhetoric. The scorched-earth insanity has been difficult to read. With such a close finish, the ugliness has been ratcheted up even more. Supporters of Sanders have accused the Clinton campaign of "cheating", and Sanders hasn't helped in that regard.

Part of the problem is that about 12 delegates were decided by a coin flip because the caucus precinct was at a loggerhead with equal numbers of votes for Sanders and Clinton. Settling the vote by coin flip is not unprecedented. What didn't help was that a story began circulating that Clinton won 6 out of 6 coin flips, indicating that she MUST have cheated. This, coupled with a YouTube video showing Sanders winning a coin flip at one of the precincts sent the Sanders supporters into paroxysms of indignant rage at the thought that Clinton and the DNC was secretly working to "steal" Iowa.

The reality, is that it was about 12 - and not 6 - coin tosses occurring during the caucuses, and each candidate won about half of them, which is statistically normal.

Get a grip people - if you don't like the results, work harder to encourage people to vote for your candidate. In case you weren't aware, demonizing the opposing candidate does not work very well, and may tend to alienate voters who might have been inclined to vote for your candidate if you weren't such a dick about it.

I still fail to understand the unearned importance placed upon the Iowa caucuses. Yes, they are the first, but in the history of campaigns, they have had statistically zero impact on the final primary results (not to mention the general election). Just take a look:

DEMOCRATS:
1980 (January 21): Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)
1984 (February 20): Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)
1988 (February 8): Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
1992 (February 10): Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)
1996 (February 12): Bill Clinton (98%), "Uncommitted" (1%), Ralph Nader (1%)
2000 (January 24): Al Gore (63%) and Bill Bradley (37%)
2004 (January 19): John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
2008 (January 3): Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%)[25]
2012 (January 3): Barack Obama (98%), "Uncommitted" (2%)[19]
2016 (February 1): Hillary Clinton (49.89%), Bernie Sanders (49.54%), Martin O'Malley (0.57%)

REPUBLICANS:
1980 (January 21): George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)
1984 (February 20): Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1988 (February 8): Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%)
1992 (February 10): George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1996 (February 12): Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)
2000 (January 24): George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
2004 (January 19): George W. Bush (unopposed)
2008 (January 3): Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)
2012 (January 3): Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (0.6%)[21]
2016 (February 1): Ted Cruz (27.7%), Donald Trump (24.3%), Marco Rubio (23.1%), Ben Carson (9.3%), Rand Paul (4.5%), Jeb Bush (2.8%) [26]

Once New Hampshire and South Carolina are over, we can settle into a nice normal primary, right?

Please?
 

18 comments (Latest Comment: 02/03/2016 21:44:33 by Raine)
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Comment by wickedpam on 02/03/2016 14:15:59
Morning

Comment by Scoopster on 02/03/2016 14:24:54
Comment by Raine on 02/03/2016 14:25:17
Good morning!

Comment by BobR on 02/03/2016 14:31:11
BLOG IS POSTED


Comment by Raine on 02/03/2016 15:24:52
Once New Hampshire and South Carolina are over, we can settle into a nice normal primary, right?


One can hope....

Comment by trojanrabbit on 02/03/2016 15:34:45
Actually the media and the derp squad are trying to drum up controversy on the Fascist side.

Rafael Cruz Jr. is being accused of stealing votes from the Sleepy Doc by saying .Carson had dropped out

And from the Derp Squad, Infowars is saying the Trump side is blaming Microsoft for helping Marco Rubio cheat (and no I'm not going to Infowars even to get a link).

Comment by Raine on 02/03/2016 15:53:58
Trump built this. And dammit I am so glad she is safe.

Mellisa Harris Perry was nearly attacked in Iowa.

Comment by TriSec on 02/03/2016 15:59:15
Normal primary. You're killing me here.

I think our best hope is that nobody catches a mouthful on TV during the next poo-flinging contest.

Comment by Mondobubba on 02/03/2016 16:02:42
Quote by trojanrabbit:
Actually the media and the derp squad are trying to drum up controversy on the Fascist side.

Rafael Cruz Jr. is being accused of stealing votes from the Sleepy Doc by saying .Carson had dropped out

And from the Derp Squad, Infowars is saying the Trump side is blaming Microsoft for helping Marco Rubio cheat (and no I'm not going to Infowars even to get a link).



Since none of us want to promote infowars, I give you a little something on Marcosoftgate from We Hunted the Mammoth. You're welcome.

Comment by Mondobubba on 02/03/2016 16:04:43
By the way, I just made up Marcosoftgate.

Comment by Mondobubba on 02/03/2016 16:07:25
Quote by TriSec:
Normal primary. You're killing me here.

I think our best hope is that nobody catches a mouthful on TV during the next poo-flinging contest.


My brother who lives in Omaha, which is right across the Missouri River from Council Bluffs, IA has been getting lots of poo flung at him in recent weeks. He said the most ridiculous ads were the Cruz ones.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 02/03/2016 16:19:49
Quote by Raine:
Trump built this. And dammit I am so glad she is safe.

Mellisa Harris Perry was nearly attacked in Iowa.



I fear what the rhetoric being thrown around in our country will do I am glad she is safe

I have some good news. I am going to an interview this afternoon in the Western Suburbs. (Also, I got a very easy sub assignment for Friday.)


Comment by TriSec on 02/03/2016 17:05:23
All the Boston TV channels broadcast deep into NH. I find the Trump ad to be the ridiculous one.

Comment by BobR on 02/03/2016 18:20:41
Quote by TriSec:
Normal primary. You're killing me here.

I think our best hope is that nobody catches a mouthful on TV during the next poo-flinging contest.



Comment by BobR on 02/03/2016 18:21:38
Quote by TriSec:
All the Boston TV channels broadcast deep into NH. I find the Trump ad to be the ridiculous one.

Fortunately, they haven't really started ramping up here in the DMV. I suspect they will as we get closer to Super Tuesday.

Comment by clintster on 02/03/2016 19:07:39
Comment by Scoopster on 02/03/2016 19:18:15
Quote by clintster:
Santorum has seeped out.

Good day for a culling of the herd.

Fucking wow @ the Cruz-Carson thing. That's a dick move even for Alberta Raffy.

Comment by Raine on 02/03/2016 21:44:33
Quote by clintster:
Santorum has seeped out.

goodbye slicky ricky.