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Random Numbers Blog
Author: Random    Date: 08/18/2008 09:19:06

Now, I’ve spent the last few weeks…days…hours…trying to figure out how best to use all the data I’ve been collecting and use it to practical purposes. It finally occurred to me, I am going to dispel some myths about the current campaign and how well someone may have done, and how poorly another one would do.

First, I’ll discuss what is talked about, ad nauseum, by the media. And that is, Obama and McCain are in a close race. Of course, how can you blame them, in a culture that loves the 5 second sound bite, who has time to listen to in-depth analysis of state-by-state polls? Hell, some states haven’t had a proper poll since February. So, if we were to look at what National polls say…


http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk230/RandomObs/Misc/Obama-McCainTotal.jpg




…Pretty clustered…uh…Can we have a closer look?


http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk230/RandomObs/Misc/Obama-McCainAugust.jpg



Better…

So, we can see that Obama and McCain are pretty close. I mean…what, a few points apart at some parts. Even looks like McCain pulls ahead of Obama at that one part, around, August 3rd there. So, that means it’s a close race, right? Well, Wrong.

Another piece of Graphical Evidence…


http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk230/RandomObs/Misc/ElectoralVotes.jpg



Now, who here knows what Electoral Colleges are? Well, quick run down, just incase. States get X amount of votes (Florida – 27). And who ever gets the most votes out of that state gets Florida, and hence 27 its votes. So it’s not how many votes you win, but really, how many states, or more importantly, what states, you win.

So, let us look at that graph again. Obama has 322 votes, McCain 216. Now, I’m not exactly sure, but 322/216 is not proportional to 46/45. But I could be wrong. So let's check. (538 is the total possible votes, roughly 270 to win). Now, 322 is 59.85% of 538. And, 216 is 40.15%. Instead of a point difference between Obama and McCain, we see a MASSIVE 20 point difference. You tell me, is this a close race?

Just a quickie here, it includes Barr and Nader. Multi-Party
Though that I do find is suspicious that in the Fox multi-Party poll, Barr got zero percent. But then again look at Obama’s numbers: 46, 49, 48, 40, 49, and 51. Guess which number came from Fox.


Now, recently, we’ve all had to suffer through the media’s fascination with Edwards and his wayward…thing…I’ve already made my opinion of this known, so I won’t go into that. Instead, I’m going into the claim by our favorite bad sweater wearing Hillary shill Wolfson said earlier this week. If this had happened before Iowa, Hillary would have one, and Hillary would be our nominee. So, one of many weird arguments that we should through Obama aside and Hillary should be the democratic Nominee, not the weirdest, but…certainly in the top…2.

We see a strange occurrence in the states following the Super Tuesday. An average of polls has Clinton near, or a bit over what she received in the primary. While Obama is almost always significantly lower in those polls than in his primary win. So, we can make a bit of an assumption, that Obama really got a boost from Edwards leaving the race.

So, what does that mean for Iowa? Well, let’s take what we know about the effect Edwards had in his leaving, and apply to Iowa...and for the hell of it, Lets check out later states as well.

Obama's points
Iowa: Old - 38 New - 68
New Hampshire: Old - 36 New - 53
Nevada: Old - 45 New - 49
South Carolina: Old - 55 New - 73

So...now let’s compare. (Same order)
Obama/Clinton
68/29
39/53
49/51
73/27

So, she’d have lost New Hampshire, but win Nevada in a squeaker. Who wants to bet this thing would still have gone into June.

As we wind down. I’d like to address an oldie, but a goodie, since we’re on weird reasons why Hillary should be nominee instead of Obama. Who remembers the talking point, Hillary is winning the big states, or she’s got more electoral votes, or whatever BS turn of phrase that basically meant, McCain will win all the States Hillary did. So, let’s have a look, what states did Hillary win?

Hillary won: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.

So, lets look at the States Obama is currently winning. Those that are bold are the same states Hillary won.

Obama: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Alright, so, Hillary won Twenty-Two states in the primary. And Obama is currently ahead in Twenty-Eight states. Incase you’re wondering, Thirteen of those states are states Hillary won. So…what we all knew, that primary win does not mean a win in the General.


Now, to wind down with a few personal notes…

1.) Yes, I may have been a bit unfair to Hillary, and well, the stupid things she was said, or what Wolfson, McAuliffe, or Penn has said. But I refuse to apologize. In fact, this entire post has just been an excuse for me to vent about the primary, thank you for sitting through it.

2.) Well, there is a hurricane coming through here in a few days, but it looks like it will miss random here by just a little...

3.) Over the weekend, I purchased “The Political Machine 2008”. I’ve found it to be a wonderful fun little game, where you pick your favorite candidate, from Obama, to Paul. (Well, not Barr, apparently, it’s only Reps versus Dems). Travel across the country giving speeches, placing ads, going on Larry King, Stephen Colbert, or Bill O’Reilly. Random has enjoyed this game, a lot. And if anyone has it, I’ll challenge you to online play. Yes...I am trying to sell a game. I'm shameless.

4.) Finally, I have updated the Blog Pool over the weekend, where you can find all these lovely graphs, along with others, like states polls, and the like. National polls will be available. So please stop by every week to see how Obama and McCain are doing.

This is why you have never, nor will you ever again, let me post a blog. So, thank you all for your time, and sitting through my rambling.
 

159 comments (Latest Comment: 08/19/2008 04:00:38 by BobR)
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Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 12:08:45
Morning :hug:





Nice way to break all that info down Random

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 12:20:21
Excellent post, proving once again that the facts have a liberal bias... :P

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 12:41:04
Morning, comrades!



I believe it was also in this space that someone posted a link to a baseball writer turned pundit...



He was making the comparison to the World Series; it's not who scores the most runs over the course of the series, it's how many individual games you win.



There have been many teams that won titles without scoring the most overall, I'd have to go digging, but I want to say the 1981 Celtics were outscored by the Houston Rockets but still won the series 4-2.



So I wonder why the media isn't obsessing over the delegate count....as we all know, the popular vote is meaningless.









Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 12:44:16
Quote by TriSec:

Morning, comrades!



I believe it was also in this space that someone posted a link to a baseball writer turned pundit...



He was making the comparison to the World Series; it's not who scores the most runs over the course of the series, it's how many individual games you win.



There have been many teams that won titles without scoring the most overall, I'd have to go digging, but I want to say the 1981 Celtics were outscored by the Houston Rockets but still won the series 4-2.



So I wonder why the media isn't obsessing over the delegate count....as we all know, the popular vote is meaningless.











Well, it's easier to talk about National polls rather than states, or electoral votes. That, and it's a better story for a close race than Obama pulling far out ahead.



Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 12:52:52
Quote by Random:





Well, it's easier to talk about National polls rather than states, or electoral votes. That, and it's a better story for a close race than Obama pulling far out ahead.



I'll agree with that. When it's a blowout game, people turn the channel. Same with the presidential race. What's the point of watching political news and commentary if the result seems inevitable?

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 12:54:09
Say, do we need Av-Dork duty today, or was Ms. Raine 'in transit' tomorrow?





Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 12:54:37
Quote by TriSec:

Morning, comrades!



I believe it was also in this space that someone posted a link to a baseball writer turned pundit...



He was making the comparison to the World Series; it's not who scores the most runs over the course of the series, it's how many individual games you win.



There have been many teams that won titles without scoring the most overall, I'd have to go digging, but I want to say the 1981 Celtics were outscored by the Houston Rockets but still won the series 4-2.



So I wonder why the media isn't obsessing over the delegate count....as we all know, the popular vote is meaningless.













Because people like to feel their vote does mean something :shrug:



Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 12:59:13
Oh, I noticed the last couple of nights that the Obama campaign has started running more "warm and fuzzy" ads during the Olympics....where the McCain ads have all been of the attack variety.



There's a new one out about renewable energy and modern technologies 'n stuff. Seems pretty upbeat.





Comment by m-hadley on 08/18/2008 13:02:13
Good job Random!

I love graphs :P

Happee Mondee everybodee :D

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 13:12:17
very nice Shane-O :D

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 13:15:12
Quote by TriSec:

Say, do we need Av-Dork duty today, or was Ms. Raine 'in transit' tomorrow?





You're on duty, sir!



AirTran flight 601, Departing Newberg NY @ 2:07 PM...

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 13:16:39
Quote by wickedpam:

very nice Shane-O :D


Dialed into work this morning; the iTunes doesn't work (neither does WMP). I don't want to start up Raine's Mac-sheen just to listen...



:kickcan:

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 13:26:13
Newburgh??



Say, I've been to that city. It's on the way to West Point (from Saugus, anyway.)



Troop 61 has a fine tradition of getting lost in the Hudson Valley every time we make this trip.





Comment by Raine on 08/18/2008 13:28:25
:yawn: Hello All! Still in New York. The flight leaves this afternoon. I am so ready to come home!!!!

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 13:31:08
And apparently the only picture of an AirTran jet at Newburgh on the entire internet:



http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/middle/6/9/3/1274396.jpg






Comment by Raine on 08/18/2008 13:34:37
Random, your blog was excellent today!!!



And, sorry, there is a good chance that you will be asked to blog this stuff again. It is fricken awesome what you did! :hug:

Comment by velveeta jones on 08/18/2008 13:35:41
Morning all!



I am very angry about the (continued) lying the neo-cons are doing!



Re: The Saddleback church interviews. It appears now, that McCain was NOT in a "cone of silence" as they joked, rather, listening in his limo to the live interview.







As well, as I reported last night, his moving tale of himself as a POW prisoner and the guard drawing a cross in the sand- was plagiarized from Solzhenitsyn when he spent time in the Soviet Gulags!!

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 13:43:26
Quote by velveeta jones:



As well, as I reported last night, his moving tale of himself as a POW prisoner and the guard drawing a cross in the sand- was plagiarized from Solzhenitsyn when he spent time in the Soviet Gulags!!






Vietnamese, Soviets, they're all the same. See, it's a shared experience; you're expecting everyone to pay attention to the details?





Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 13:56:01
Steph's dating life is so D-list

Comment by velveeta jones on 08/18/2008 13:57:43
"Raine is comin' home, Raine is comin' home, la la la la"

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:07:07
Good morning everyone.



With my sleeping habits (and working late) I keep missing the first hour lately.

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 14:10:13
Quote by velveeta jones:

Morning all!



I am very angry about the (continued) lying the neo-cons are doing!



Re: The Saddleback church interviews. It appears now, that McCain was NOT in a "cone of silence" as they joked, rather, listening in his limo to the live interview.







As well, as I reported last night, his moving tale of himself as a POW prisoner and the guard drawing a cross in the sand- was plagiarized from Solzhenitsyn when he spent time in the Soviet Gulags!!


And of course when called on it, he'll shrug it off saying that the details aren't important - it's the bigger picture of what he was trying to say...

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:10:34
Very cute DJ :D

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:13:55
What would happen if you tied John McCain to a lie detector machine?

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:15:32
Jim!

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:15:46
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD mornin' to the Bloooooooog!







Random™ your post rAWked!



It is fun how facts have a liberal bias.



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:16:22
I must cleanse my eyes!

Comment by Raine on 08/18/2008 14:17:49
So, I am assuming that you have heard that Mushareff has resigned!

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:18:58
Good morning and Raine.



CNN International was talking about Musharraf's resignation.

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:21:59
Quote by Raine:

So, I am assuming that you have heard that Mushareff has resigned!




Woke up to that news.



Let's see if he actually goes.

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 14:23:17
Quote by livingonli:

What would happen if you tied John McCain to a lie detector machine?






http://www.dri.du.edu/data/bexplos.gif


Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 14:24:20
When do we invade Pakistan?



Since Musharraf has resigned (allegedly) I guess that means they're against us now?





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:28:22
:: momma :: "No that's true, but I'm just sayin..." Barack Obama can do no wrong.







Come on Momma.



Comment by velveeta jones on 08/18/2008 14:34:15
Has anyone seen the movie "I.O.U.S.A One nation under debt"?

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 14:38:49
Great, another stammering, incoherent yahoo in the White House.



Just what we need more of at this juncture...





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:39:07
Quote by velveeta jones:

Has anyone seen the movie "I.O.U.S.A One nation under debt"?




Have not but it sounds like it would make me want to stick sharp objects in my eyes!



Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:40:33
The moment of conception? Wow. Do people really know the MOMENT their child is conceived?

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 14:41:39
All hail Random! Well done! Insightful and entertaining. :bow:



Of course I do reserve the right to lash out at any time and deflate the swelling that is your head! :rofl:

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 14:42:07
The fact is, they are never going to overturn Roe v. Wade because then they will have 1 less wedge issue to play with the rednecks southern states.



Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:46:43
Quote by TriSec:

Great, another stammering, incoherent yahoo in the White House.



Just what we need more of at this juncture...





We've already had two of them. A third one may make me consider moving to Canada or Costa Rica.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 14:49:33
Quote by starling310:

The moment of conception? Wow. Do people really know the MOMENT their child is conceived?




As Richard Dawkins has pointed out in more than one book, the vast majority of fertilized eggs fail to implant in the uterus or they spontaneously aborted. Puts a slightly different spin on the whole right to life thingy.

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:50:12
Did this caller flunk geography in school?

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:50:41
you do not have to prove how religious you are to qualify to be Pres.





and Arizona - NOT the south. I have lived in the south, I know the south and Arizona is not in the south.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 14:51:24
Mark, shut the hell up!

Comment by Raine on 08/18/2008 14:54:06
Quote by BobR:

Quote by velveeta jones:

Morning all!



I am very angry about the (continued) lying the neo-cons are doing!



Re: The Saddleback church interviews. It appears now, that McCain was NOT in a "cone of silence" as they joked, rather, listening in his limo to the live interview.







As well, as I reported last night, his moving tale of himself as a POW prisoner and the guard drawing a cross in the sand- was plagiarized from Solzhenitsyn when he spent time in the Soviet Gulags!!


And of course when called on it, he'll shrug it off saying that the details aren't important - it's the bigger picture of what he was trying to say...
I saw parts of the mcCAin stuff... he was answering questions that were not yet asked.







Comment by Raine on 08/18/2008 14:55:04
:cry: I am so tired. I miss Momma and the mooks, and I wanna come home NOW. ::: stomps Feet :::





Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 14:56:10
Quote by Raine:

:cry: I am so tired. I miss Momma and the mooks, and I wanna come home NOW. ::: stomps Feet :::





Can't you listen on the internets where you are?

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:56:19


Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 14:56:39
Chris there is no way in hell a Muslim would ever get nominated. Constitution or not.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 14:58:26
Not now but maybe someday.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 15:10:42
is that from JD?

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 15:12:16
Yay, DJ. Does Shane-O have his own version?

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 15:20:15
Woody Allen can get his freak on.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 15:22:12
I have never understood why people find Woody Allen funny. :yawn:

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 15:23:15
Apocryphal.



:shrug:



:nerd:



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 15:32:45
Quote by starling310:

Apocryphal.



:shrug:



:nerd:





smarty pants









:p



Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 15:33:37
Cactus rustlers! OMG!

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 15:37:07
Chris is right. Tom Cruise is hilarious in the bald cap and chest wig.

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 15:39:24
AirTran 601 is not on the big board yet; no flight plan on file at this hour, either.





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 15:40:32
Is McCain a stand up comedian now?



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 15:46:12
Quote by starling310:

Is McCain a stand up comedian now?





he's gone vaudvillian.





Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 15:50:19
Quote by Mondobubba:





As Richard Dawkins has pointed out in more than one book, the vast majority of fertilized eggs fail to implant in the uterus or they spontaneously aborted. Puts a slightly different spin on the whole right to life thingy.


When wife #1 had a spontaneous miscarriage (not knowing she was even pregnant, since it was <1 month), she went to the hospital afraid the bleeding was something else and more serious.



They asked her if she wanted to keep the microscopic clump of cells. Apparently, some people have funeral services and a burial. :o



We declined.

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 15:53:58
Hmm.



Interesting to note.



When Mrs. TriSec and I were going through our ultimately unsuccesful ART, we had many succesful fertilizations; it was the implanting part that never worked out. We were left with about a half-dozen frozen fertilized cells.....and they asked us what we wanted to do with them.



Like Bobr's experience, we opted to have them destroyed.



I wonder when people thought life began back before the Bible (and indeed, in pre-history). We were more animal then....I'd be pretty sure it was when a living being emerged from it's mother.





Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 15:57:52
Quote by BobR:

Quote by Mondobubba:





As Richard Dawkins has pointed out in more than one book, the vast majority of fertilized eggs fail to implant in the uterus or they spontaneously aborted. Puts a slightly different spin on the whole right to life thingy.


When wife #1 had a spontaneous miscarriage (not knowing she was even pregnant, since it was <1 month), she went to the hospital afraid the bleeding was something else and more serious.



They asked her if she wanted to keep the microscopic clump of cells. Apparently, some people have funeral services and a burial. :o



We declined.




Ewwww? That just pinned the creepy meter.

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 16:01:42
Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by BobR:

Quote by Mondobubba:





As Richard Dawkins has pointed out in more than one book, the vast majority of fertilized eggs fail to implant in the uterus or they spontaneously aborted. Puts a slightly different spin on the whole right to life thingy.


When wife #1 had a spontaneous miscarriage (not knowing she was even pregnant, since it was <1 month), she went to the hospital afraid the bleeding was something else and more serious.



They asked her if she wanted to keep the microscopic clump of cells. Apparently, some people have funeral services and a burial. :o



We declined.




Ewwww? That just pinned the creepy meter.


Those are things best left to Santorum.

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 16:03:24
Quote by starling310:

Is McCain a stand up comedian now?



He thinks he is - look at all his appearances on SNL...

Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 16:08:32
Quote by Raine:

Random, your blog was excellent today!!!



And, sorry, there is a good chance that you will be asked to blog this stuff again. It is fricken awesome what you did! :hug:




Well, that's nice. Just so you know though, that i ran out of material bout half way through. You notice when that happened when i slipped into Hillary Bashing.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 16:11:13
Thom with the details of the car ride

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 16:15:19
I wish I was a fly in the wall on that limo ride.



I wonder if Randi and Sam patched things up?

Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 16:23:33
Quote by Mondobubba:

All hail Random! Well done! Insightful and entertaining. :bow:



Of course I do reserve the right to lash out at any time and deflate the swelling that is your head! :rofl:


I can deflate my own ego, thank you very much.

That's what my paranoia is good for.

Comment by trojanrabbit on 08/18/2008 16:37:33
Great job, Random.



I'm incredibly far behind in my Daily Show/Colbert Report viewing (4 months worth), so it's rather interesting when I bring up these old shows just to refresh my mind as to what was going on then. I start watching a show from April (just before the PA primary) and who should pop up on Colbert - John Edwards doing the Tonight's Word routine. Don't think he'd fly on any of those shows now.



Have a safe flight home, Raine.

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 17:12:57
Right-winger: Our paid for shills are just as valid as your facts. Must re-hash talking points.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 17:15:05
they aren't going to stop driving but eveyone has been modifying how they drive, hence the drop of, what, 1% in using gas.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 17:17:33
there is never a day with out wind dummy, wind is created by the turning of the earth. If there is NO wind then we're all in trouble

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 17:20:42
Gee, I wonder what life is really like in that parallel universe right-wingers live on?

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 17:36:50
Quote by wickedpam:

there is never a day with out wind dummy, wind is created by the turning of the earth. If there is NO wind then we're all in trouble


I thought it was caused by the earth not being heated evenly. :shrug:

Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 17:38:11
btw - Raine is boarding the plane.



hmmmm.....



Raine in the plane stays mainly in my brain... :rofl:



oh I do amuse myself sometimes.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 17:40:41
Quote by livingonli:

Gee, I wonder what life is really like in that parallel universe right-wingers live on?




Liv there are blue skies every day, the temperature is always a balmy 75 degrees, the pesky minorities know their place, and there are bubble gum trees for all.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 17:41:51
Quote by BobR:

btw - Raine is boarding the plane.



hmmmm.....



Raine in the plane stays mainly in my brain... :rofl:



oh I do amuse myself sometimes.






Are you inRaine in the membrane? Yeah that was lame, Bobber I know.

Comment by trojanrabbit on 08/18/2008 17:43:38
Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by livingonli:

Gee, I wonder what life is really like in that parallel universe right-wingers live on?




Liv there are blue skies every day, the temperature is always a balmy 75 degrees, the pesky minorities know their place, and there are bubble gum trees for all.




Well, there's bubble gum trees only for the top 1/10 of 1%. The rest have to care for those bubble gum trees.



Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:43:57
Av-Dorks "R" Us:







The tracker is usually delayed a few minutes waiting for a flight to get off.



I still have it on schedule, departure at 1818 Zulu. (1418 EDT)







Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:46:19
And now I've got the weathergeek radar up from WCVB (Boston). Looking like a good day on the east coast air routes.





Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:46:50
Gee, I remember when I used to go outside and look at airplanes in the *actual* sky.





Comment by trojanrabbit on 08/18/2008 17:49:26
Quote by TriSec:

Gee, I remember when I used to go outside and look at airplanes in the *actual* sky.







I remember when you used to be able to go to the observation deck at Logan with a scanner.



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 17:51:48
Quote by BobR:

Quote by wickedpam:

there is never a day with out wind dummy, wind is created by the turning of the earth. If there is NO wind then we're all in trouble


I thought it was caused by the earth not being heated evenly. :shrug:




I'm not sure - kinda pulled that out of the sky, logically it made sense to me. I'm probably wrong. there's a surprise :p





Even if it is from uneven heats of the earth, there still will never been a day that the earth is heated completely even all over.



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 17:52:22
Quote by BobR:

btw - Raine is boarding the plane.



hmmmm.....



Raine in the plane stays mainly in my brain... :rofl:



oh I do amuse myself sometimes.




awwww



Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:52:57
Hey folks, your friendly moderating staff wants to remind you about the Four Freedoms Message Board. It was actually founded before our loverly blog, and we've got lots of subjects that are just begging for discussion. (literally!)



Registration is free as always, just click on the "forum" button underneath the 4F logo at top left. You can even use the same handle that you have on the blog!



The message board proceeds at a more leisurely pace than the blog; thoughtful conversations and nuanced discussions are welcomed and encouraged!



[ Please note, board traffic has been slow as of late. This friendly reminder has been provided by the management. ]



:peace:



Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:54:28
Quote by trojanrabbit:

Quote by TriSec:

Gee, I remember when I used to go outside and look at airplanes in the *actual* sky.







I remember when you used to be able to go to the observation deck at Logan with a scanner.





The roof of the terminal B parking garage has a better view...besides, I'd rather hear the planes and smell the kerosene...



Of course, the best place to planewatch always was and always will be Castle Island.





Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 17:54:33
Quote by livingonli:

Gee, I wonder what life is really like in that parallel universe right-wingers live on?


http://www.mindspring.com/~cwakefie/PCDancingTime.jpg


Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 17:54:34
Quote by trojanrabbit:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by livingonli:

Gee, I wonder what life is really like in that parallel universe right-wingers live on?




Liv there are blue skies every day, the temperature is always a balmy 75 degrees, the pesky minorities know their place, and there are bubble gum trees for all.




Well, there's bubble gum trees only for the top 1/10 of 1%. The rest have to care for those bubble gum trees.





Oh no that is what the pesky minorities who know their place do! All the white folks live in gated communities, have excellent health care that is based on research in the marketplace, they pay for it with all the money they have socked away in those marvelous health savings accounts. You see with the low low taxes every man is a king! All the schools are private and paid for with vouchers.

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 17:58:00
One for Bobr....Castle Island is not Maho Beach, but it's the last bit of land directly across from Logan Airport on the final approach to 4L and 4R....It's less than a mile from the threshold.





: shakes fist : Mrs. TriSec still refuses to believe that's the *real* reason I want to go to St. Maarten.





Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 18:07:02


Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 18:07:28
Quote by wickedpam:



http://www.mindspring.com/~cwakefie/PCDancingTime.jpg


Gee, I don't know... that looks a little too faggy for right-wingers... :P

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 18:12:16
Quote by BobR:

Quote by wickedpam:



http://www.mindspring.com/~cwakefie/PCDancingTime.jpg


Gee, I don't know... that looks a little too faggy for right-wingers... :P






hmmm - how about





http://www.pooh4kids.com/img/winnie_the_pooh_log1.jpg


Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 18:22:20
:: lurking ::

http://static.guim.co.uk/Guardian/world/gallery/2008/aug/18/2/GD8453990@Participant-Diego-Ram-2474.jpg


Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 18:25:08
And we have a successful launch: TRS601 is airborne, passing through 16,400 feet and 328 KIAS, north of Port Jervis.



Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 18:30:17
Holy Crap! you scared that snot out of me! :thud:

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 18:33:09
Quote by BobR:

Quote by wickedpam:



http://www.mindspring.com/~cwakefie/PCDancingTime.jpg


Gee, I don't know... that looks a little too faggy for right-wingers... :P


That's right. There are no gay people in that parallel universe. But then how does everyone keep their place neat and tidy?

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 18:41:27
Quote by wickedpam:

Holy Crap! you scared that snot out of me! :thud:






Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 18:41:27
TRS601 has now reached it's cruising altitude of 32,000 feet. We'll be starting a drink service shortly. Remember, your flight attendant greatly appreciates exact change!





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 18:42:44
Quote by TriSec:

TRS601 has now reached it's cruising altitude of 32,000 feet. We'll be starting a drink service shortly. Remember, your flight attendant greatly appreciates exact change!







Yeah, I hope Raine brought her quarters on board.



Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 18:45:40
Quote by starling310:





Yeah, I hope Raine brought her quarters on board.



quarters?? :lol:



booze costs 6 bucks a pop.

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 18:46:48
Quote by TriSec:

TRS601 has now reached it's cruising altitude of 32,000 feet. We'll be starting a drink service shortly. Remember, your flight attendant greatly appreciates exact change!





JetBlue doesn't take cash anymore in-flight. You can only pay with a credit card in-flight.

Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 18:47:55
Quote by BobR:

Quote by starling310:





Yeah, I hope Raine brought her quarters on board.



quarters?? :lol:



booze costs 6 bucks a pop.




Dont'cha need quarters to unlock the bathroom door and the overhead compartment?





Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 18:53:05
"Should we experience any unexpected drop in cabin pressure, please insert $5 in the slot marked "Oxygen" in order to release your mask. Exact change only please.



Should you lose consciousness immediately, the flight crew will revive you with supplemental oxygen for a minimum of $10, including all servicing fees.



Restrooms are available on this flight at the rear of the cabin, for a minimum entry fee of $1.



We'll be passing a collection plate as we begin our final descent; this will help pay for the hydraulic fluid needed to lower the flaps and landing gear, otherwise you may use your seat cushion as a flotation device for a nominal $3 rental fee per hour in the water (payable upon rescue, no charge if you are eaten by a shark.)







oof, I think I'll stop now.



Comment by BobR on 08/18/2008 18:56:00
heading out to get some lunch on the way to the airport. I need to find a parking spot halfway between the MARTA station and the Hyatt where we'll be going on the way back to protest McCain's fundraiser there...

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 19:06:46
And now it's time to head off to the salt mine.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 19:12:07
Have fun storming the castle!

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 19:19:37
TRS601 now just south of Charleston, WV. They're on the western route today...I'd have to check my charts to see the air routes, since the Northbound flight is along the shore.





Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 19:29:00
You scare me TriSec.

Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 19:33:27
Electoral College update...

http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk230/RandomObs/Misc/ElectoralVotes-1.jpg


Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 19:37:00
Quote by Random:

You scare me TriSec.




"Av-Dork" is a hard-earned title on this blog.







Comment by wickedpam on 08/18/2008 19:41:13
I don't like that one Random

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 19:43:56
We appear to have an initial descent into Hartsfield....big board shows TRS601 with about another 16 minutes flight time.





Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 19:47:41
Quote by wickedpam:

I don't like that one Random


Well, I couldn't feel right giving Ohio to either side (They both tide there) which would make a big difference. I'm currently working on providing all the up to date information.

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 19:55:17
TRS601 down to 12,000 feet over the friendly-sounding "Lake Sidney Lanier", northeast of Atlanta proper.





Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 19:56:33
check out these graphs.



The second one down eliminates all the "maybe" states and only includes those solidly for one candidate or the other. It's a better looking picture...





Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 20:04:19
Looks like TRS601 on the downwind now, should be turning to final in moments.









Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 20:10:06
Alright ladies and gentlemen, this is your Av-Dork speaking. We've turned onto final approach and Atlanta has just given us clearance to land.



Blog attendants, prepare the cabin for arrival.



Remember, the next time you fly, we'd appreciate you giving 4F bloglines your hard-earned blogging dollar!



:peace:





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 20:10:31
I am listening to Ed Schultz because Randi is a repeat. He is spending altogether too much time on the candidate's favorite music. Who the hell cares?



Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 20:11:42
Quote by TriSec:

check out these graphs.



The second one down eliminates all the "maybe" states and only includes those solidly for one candidate or the other. It's a better looking picture...







Well, the first graph kind of matches mine...

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 20:15:51
Quote by starling310:

I am listening to Ed Schultz because Randi is a repeat. He is spending altogether too much time on the candidate's favorite music. Who the hell cares?





Well, I for one can't elect anyone that listens to country music or rap. That so offends my musical sensibilities, and besides, I have a certain stereotype associated with either kind of music that I just don't want in a president. (We've already had several of "those" kinds in the white house.)







Besides, isn't jazz the soundtrack of the liberal elite? Rush said so!





Comment by starling310 on 08/18/2008 20:16:51
Quote by TriSec:

Quote by starling310:

I am listening to Ed Schultz because Randi is a repeat. He is spending altogether too much time on the candidate's favorite music. Who the hell cares?





Well, I for one can't elect anyone that listens to country music or rap. That so offends my musical sensibilities, and besides, I have a certain stereotype associated with either kind of music that I just don't want in a president. (We've already had several of "those" kinds in the white house.)







Besides, isn't jazz the soundtrack of the liberal elite? Rush said so!









Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 20:22:42
Blog Pool



New...Up to date....I've removed numbers on the graphs, too cluttered...if you want to know exact percents, feel free to ask.

Random...so very tired of looking at graphs.

Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 20:26:14
So, where does rock music stand in the whole pantheon?

Comment by TriSec on 08/18/2008 20:34:30
Should TriSec run for president, what would the media think of this in my record collection?



(and don't think that I don't own several volumes of this stuff...)





Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 20:38:29
I guess someoene out there will make plane porn an issue, or they will think you are one of them that terrurists.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/18/2008 21:02:13
Comment by livingonli on 08/18/2008 22:39:07
Comment by Random on 08/18/2008 23:40:59
Random tired.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 00:05:12
Hey Random, has your local media gone into 24/7 tropical storm coverage? The Jacksonville stations have wasted no time in slapping the tropical storm warnings on the screen.



Gen. Petraus is one of the greatest military leaders huh, Sen McCain? Riiiiiiiight.

Comment by Random on 08/19/2008 00:10:51
Quote by Mondobubba:

Hey Random, has your local media gone into 24/7 tropical storm coverage? The Jacksonville stations have wasted no time in slapping the tropical storm warnings on the screen.



Gen. Petraus is one of the greatest military leaders huh, Sen McCain? Riiiiiiiight.


Random doesn't watch local news, much. So no clue what they're doing.

He's watching Countdown, and his silence of Cone.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 00:15:11
Quote by Random:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Hey Random, has your local media gone into 24/7 tropical storm coverage? The Jacksonville stations have wasted no time in slapping the tropical storm warnings on the screen.



Gen. Petraus is one of the greatest military leaders huh, Sen McCain? Riiiiiiiight.


Random doesn't watch local news, much. So no clue what they're doing.

He's watching Countdown, and his silence of Cone.






Not the local news, the stations throwing up the graphic about the warning.



Can't wait for the special comment

Comment by Random on 08/19/2008 00:19:24
Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by Random:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Hey Random, has your local media gone into 24/7 tropical storm coverage? The Jacksonville stations have wasted no time in slapping the tropical storm warnings on the screen.



Gen. Petraus is one of the greatest military leaders huh, Sen McCain? Riiiiiiiight.


Random doesn't watch local news, much. So no clue what they're doing.

He's watching Countdown, and his silence of Cone.






Not the local news, the stations throwing up the graphic about the warning.



Can't wait for the special comment


Random'll probably miss it. Not that he minds, it'll be up on the "Cyber Space" soon enough.

He's just glad that he got all the state polls, national polls done for the week. Maybe now i should catch up on the special requests.



Comment by velveeta jones on 08/19/2008 00:34:09
Not to alarm anyone, but, um, you might consider taking cover...........this could be a bad thing.



Hey! Maybe this is the "Rapture".
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/scared002.gif










Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 00:39:51
Yeah Keith! Bring on the Jim Thorpe facts.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 00:54:14
Yeah Keith! Bring on the Jim Thorpe facts.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:05:32
Yeah Keith! Bring on the Jim Thorpe facts.

Comment by velveeta jones on 08/19/2008 01:07:34
*sigh* don't tell Aunt Azalea, but I may have a lesbian man-crush on Keith.



*swoon*





Comment by TriSec on 08/19/2008 01:07:55
Evening, folks!



*sniggle*



Beach Volleyball on again.....giant "BRA" written across the Brazilian women's chests...



OK, I know what it is, what country do they play for?





Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:07:58
Zounds! What is with the triple posting? :thud:

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:09:28
Quote by TriSec:

Evening, folks!



*sniggle*



Beach Volleyball on again.....giant "BRA" written across the Brazilian women's chests...



OK, I know what it is, what country do they play for?









Oh modified rapture! Misty & Karri! Look at the six-pack on the woman!

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:10:17
Quote by velveeta jones:

*sigh* don't tell Aunt Azalea, but I may have a lesbian man-crush on Keith.



*swoon*









You totally understand my Dr Maddow crush then!

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:12:47
The sandy goodness of beach volleyball. I turned off the History Detectives for this!

Comment by TriSec on 08/19/2008 01:33:50
Volleyball is my game....it was (and is) the only sport that I have both a clue and a chance....I played semi-seriously for about a dozen years....maybe about a dozen years ago now.





Comment by livingonli on 08/19/2008 01:40:35
When FSN doesn't have a game on, there is nothing but crap. And it seems like they just repeat the same shows over and over.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:41:18
Quote by TriSec:

Volleyball is my game....it was (and is) the only sport that I have both a clue and a chance....I played semi-seriously for about a dozen years....maybe about a dozen years ago now.







The team if May-Walsh is pretty amazing if you ask me. They are totally focused and can do it all block, dig, spike serve.

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:42:33
:goes Squeezy: And the sand clings to their long golden calves and thighs. I need to help them clean the sand off.



Wait! I'm trying to improve their game! :dragged off:

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 01:47:45
Trampoline! People only watch it for the change of catastrophic head injury.

Comment by TriSec on 08/19/2008 01:52:53
"Nothing good ever comes from a trampoline"



Tri-Secian saying, inspired by one too many viewings of AFV.





Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 02:01:01
Quote by TriSec:

"Nothing good ever comes from a trampoline"



Tri-Secian saying, inspired by one too many viewings of AFV.







Yep, only for the accidents.

Comment by Random on 08/19/2008 02:02:59
Quote by TriSec:

"Nothing good ever comes from a trampoline"



Tri-Secian saying, inspired by one too many viewings of AFV.





Now i know why Saget did the funny voices...

It's not quite as funny when you hear the kid crying and going owe for half a minute. And the idiot woman on the camera, laughing instead of doing something.

Comment by livingonli on 08/19/2008 02:03:41
Tonight Sport Science devoted the entire hour to low-blow injuries especially getting hit in the crotch.

Comment by velveeta jones on 08/19/2008 02:03:48
OMG. That trampoline video! I've watched it 3 times and its too funny.



Boys.



Stupid, stupid, boys.



:rofl:

Comment by Raine on 08/19/2008 02:54:55
Quote by BobR:

Quote by starling310:





Yeah, I hope Raine brought her quarters on board.



quarters?? :lol:



booze costs 6 bucks a pop.
And I must say the loverly woman sitting next to me with the 5 year old daughter sittin gnext to her... She bought me a cocktail. I kid you not. Why? becuase she was a nice Upstate NY'r, I think. Lovely woman... on her way with her sister, daughter niece, nephew to see her son graduate from Bott Camp at Fort Benning.



No, we did not talk of politics. She was a woman who loved to talk to people. period.



It was kinda nice. I got home, saw my Bobber, loved on him a lot, we went out for dinner and now, I am HOME!!!!!



Did I tell anyone that I climbed a tree at my sister's babyshower? It really had to be done. My friend took the incriminating photos... When I get them, I will post them.



Comment by livingonli on 08/19/2008 03:04:12
Welcome home Raine.



Did you and Bobber get to go to the Cheney protest?

Comment by Mondobubba on 08/19/2008 03:04:56
Quote by Raine:

Quote by BobR:

Quote by starling310:





Yeah, I hope Raine brought her quarters on board.



quarters?? :lol:



booze costs 6 bucks a pop.
And I must say the loverly woman sitting next to me with the 5 year old daughter sittin gnext to her... She bought me a cocktail. I kid you not. Why? becuase she was a nice Upstate NY'r, I think. Lovely woman... on her way with her sister, daughter niece, nephew to see her son graduate from Bott Camp at Fort Benning.



No, we did not talk of politics. She was a woman who loved to talk to people. period.



It was kinda nice. I got home, saw my Bobber, loved on him a lot, we went out for dinner and now, I am HOME!!!!!



Did I tell anyone that I climbed a tree at my sister's babyshower? It really had to be done. My friend took the incriminating photos... When I get them, I will post them.





Welcome home, we have missed your typos! What the hell is bott camp? :rofl:

Comment by MMB on 08/19/2008 03:38:47
Glad you got home safe Raine

Comment by BobR on 08/19/2008 04:00:38
Quote by livingonli:

Welcome home Raine.



Did you and Bobber get to go to the Cheney protest?


We did. It was kinda lame, but we got to see Hitler Youth Young soulless Republicans glumly holding up McCain signs as if their bank accounts depended on it. Some were wearing Izods, others were wearing suits.



ooof.