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Rocking the House
Author: BobR    Date: 04/12/2018 12:54:46

The announcement yesterday that House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) is not running for re-election has fueled speculation and fears about future control of the House. Ryan's most likely successors are Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Steve Scalise (R-LA), which is not necessarily an improvement (unless they are inclined to stand up to tRump).

His purported reasons for leaving the public sector is to "spend more time with his family", which is about the most cliché a reason there is. There are other potential reasons: He doesn't want to lose the election and go out a loser, he's worried that he'll get swept up in the Mueller investigation, he's having trouble getting donations for a re-election campaign, or he doesn't want to be in Congress if the Republicans lose control of it.

How likely is that last possibility, really? Actually - it seems within grasp.

The House currently has 193 Democrats. The magic number is 218 to take (or maintain) control of the gavel. That means Democrats would need to keep all 193 seats, and take another 25 to get control. We've been hearing a lot about how many Republicans are not seeking re-election. That doesn't necessarily mean the seat can easily be taken, especially with deep conservative districts in gerrymandered states. But let's just look at the raw numbers:





Reason for LeavingDemocrat   Republican
Not seeking re-election   1025
Running for Senate37
Running for Governor45
Left/Leaving Early25
TOTALS1942


Doing the math, that's 23 more Republican incumbents. Some of those Republicans are well known, and would be considered difficult to beat. Running against an incumbent is much more difficult than running against another person who is on the same level. This is giving the Democrats a distinct advantage.

There is also the "tRump effect" and the Blue Wave. The surprising victories of Democrats in VA, as well as a Democrat winning a Senate seat in AL is setting the stage for an interesting election in November. Voters who support Democrats over Republicans are energized and motivated (the tRump effect) and after seeing the results in the off-year elections last year are likely to flex their muscles this fall.

Website FiveThirtyEight.com (which failed us miserably in 2016) is predicting a stronger turnout for Dems than Reps, by a difference of about 7 points, based on numerous polls. The polls themselves vary from 3% to 10%. Of course, the key is where those voters reside, and how motivated Republican voters are this fall. That is certainly hard to gauge.

For Republicans in the House, what they are still trying to determines iw whether impeaching tRump would help or hurt them in the fall (with their voters), and whether they are more likely to accomplish what they want with tRump or Pence. There are no easy answers for them, and just the fact that they haven't done anything yet shows just how much they favor partisan power-seeking over the health and well-being of our country.

Let's hope the voters see it too. Fingers crossed.
 

17 comments (Latest Comment: 04/12/2018 19:43:59 by TriSec)
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Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 13:11:37
This is the most hopeful blog I have seen in a long time == and damn it's needed.

good morning!

Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 13:17:52
A few weeks earlier, Sajudin had signed a contract with A.M.I., agreeing to become a source and to accept thirty thousand dollars for exclusive rights to information he had been told: that Donald Trump, who had launched his Presidential campaign five months earlier, may have fathered a child with a former employee in the late nineteen-eighties. Sajudin declined to comment for this story. However, six current and former A.M.I. employees, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared legal retaliation by the company, said that Sajudin had told A.M.I. the names of the alleged mistress and child.


boom.

Comment by wickedpam on 04/12/2018 13:29:55
Morning

Not sure I could ever fully trust 538 again though. I'm bracing for voter suppression while hoping for overwhelming turnout.

Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 13:34:16
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

Not sure I could ever fully trust 538 again though. I'm bracing for voter suppression while hoping for overwhelming turnout.

538 didn't take into account Russia and the dirty tricks. I am not completely convinced they were wrong per-say -- you can't be right when you don't know how badly the other side is cheating.

(Hope that made sense)

Comment by wickedpam on 04/12/2018 13:55:42
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

Not sure I could ever fully trust 538 again though. I'm bracing for voter suppression while hoping for overwhelming turnout.

538 didn't take into account Russia and the dirty tricks. I am not completely convinced they were wrong per-say -- you can't be right when you don't know how badly the other side is cheating.

(Hope that made sense)



It did, and you have a valid point.

You know me though, I'm a worrier, constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Hey, wanna see the house next door that they are calling "remodeled"? It wasn't, new carpet, replacing the missing doors, patching the holes in the walls and replacing whatever else they destroyed is not remodeled, its just making it somewhat sellable.

The house next door.

Comment by Scoopster on 04/12/2018 14:05:54
Mornin' all!
Just one problem after another the past 12 hours.. last night my PC mic was acting funny & I couldnt figure out the problem. then I get to work and this one client (a group of inns) can't get on the same page & are bitching at us b/c of it.

Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 14:09:07




Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 14:11:53
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

Not sure I could ever fully trust 538 again though. I'm bracing for voter suppression while hoping for overwhelming turnout.

538 didn't take into account Russia and the dirty tricks. I am not completely convinced they were wrong per-say -- you can't be right when you don't know how badly the other side is cheating.

(Hope that made sense)



It did, and you have a valid point.

You know me though, I'm a worrier, constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Hey, wanna see the house next door that they are calling "remodeled"? It wasn't, new carpet, replacing the missing doors, patching the holes in the walls and replacing whatever else they destroyed is not remodeled, its just making it somewhat sellable.

The house next door.
looks like a flip.


Comment by wickedpam on 04/12/2018 14:27:01
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

Not sure I could ever fully trust 538 again though. I'm bracing for voter suppression while hoping for overwhelming turnout.

538 didn't take into account Russia and the dirty tricks. I am not completely convinced they were wrong per-say -- you can't be right when you don't know how badly the other side is cheating.

(Hope that made sense)



It did, and you have a valid point.

You know me though, I'm a worrier, constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Hey, wanna see the house next door that they are calling "remodeled"? It wasn't, new carpet, replacing the missing doors, patching the holes in the walls and replacing whatever else they destroyed is not remodeled, its just making it somewhat sellable.

The house next door.
looks like a flip.



It does, right. Those tiles are what the last people put in so, not new. The carpet I saw it being installed, its cheap. The kitchen counters and cabinets don't go together at all and look cheap. I am laughing hard at that ice maker on the fridge cause there is no water line there unless the original owner put it in, cause I know neither of the last two put any improvements into the place. Its basically the mirror of mine but they have a fireplace. Oh and the back yard has no shed and needs a ton of work.

Comment by TriSec on 04/12/2018 14:34:56
Hi all.

New eyes have been ordered - very soon Your Loyal TriSec will be looking at the world with 20/20 vision. I'm actually not sure I can handle that - there's probably some alien mind control device or something that's been outside my visual acuity all these years.

I'm inclined to believe Raine WRT 538.com. They can't possibly have been that wrong. There are clearly dirty tricks or hacks that skewed the numbers.



Comment by Raine on 04/12/2018 15:00:24
Quote by TriSec:
Hi all.

New eyes have been ordered - very soon Your Loyal TriSec will be looking at the world with 20/20 vision. I'm actually not sure I can handle that - there's probably some alien mind control device or something that's been outside my visual acuity all these years.

I'm inclined to believe Raine WRT 538.com. They can't possibly have been that wrong. There are clearly dirty tricks or hacks that skewed the numbers.


When is the procedure being done?

I'm really excited for you!

Comment by TriSec on 04/12/2018 15:47:09
Ah, no procedure involved. I've been working with a very nice ophthalmologist that specializes in lensing for kerataconis. (my condition.)

The laser folks wouldn't touch me, so I've been back and forth and have been fitted extensively for gas-permeable hard contacts. I had them once, more than 20 years ago, and my eyes literally rejected them. (Scratched a cornea, and then a lens flew out of my eye and disappeared.)

Technology hasn't changed that much, but the newer lenses are flatter and more-conforming to the eye. As I noted during the trial period, I'm aware of them, but they're not uncomfortable.

I just ordered my new prescription this morning, so final fitting and adjustments will be happening in the next two weeks or so.




Comment by Will in Chicago on 04/12/2018 15:49:04
Good morning bloggers!!!

We expect to reach 70 degrees today and tomorrow before it cools down.

Comment by Scoopster on 04/12/2018 15:52:56


https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/380842833826938880/433867123576668160/6fea7d40-1097-4b56-93bc-d98cfd11d4f5.jpg?width=400&height=202


Comment by wickedpam on 04/12/2018 16:03:21
Quote by Scoopster:


https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/380842833826938880/433867123576668160/6fea7d40-1097-4b56-93bc-d98cfd11d4f5.jpg?width=400&height=202


LOl

https://i.imgur.com/XS5LK.gif


Comment by Scoopster on 04/12/2018 16:17:55
Quote by TriSec:
Ah, no procedure involved. I've been working with a very nice ophthalmologist that specializes in lensing for kerataconis. (my condition.)

The laser folks wouldn't touch me, so I've been back and forth and have been fitted extensively for gas-permeable hard contacts. I had them once, more than 20 years ago, and my eyes literally rejected them. (Scratched a cornea, and then a lens flew out of my eye and disappeared.)

Technology hasn't changed that much, but the newer lenses are flatter and more-conforming to the eye. As I noted during the trial period, I'm aware of them, but they're not uncomfortable.

I just ordered my new prescription this morning, so final fitting and adjustments will be happening in the next two weeks or so.

My uncle showed me a pair of hard contacts once, first & only time I've seen 'em. By the time I had tried out contacts in the mid-90s they didn't exist anymore.

They take some getting used to. I couldn't deal with putting 'em in & taking 'em out every day, which led me to just never take them out, which eventually led to all kinds of other problems.

Comment by TriSec on 04/12/2018 19:43:59
And in other news, I'm just back from my annual medical exam to maintain my DOT card to keep my Class B license valid.

All clean - and I got a two year certification this time.

"There will be no going back." - Capt. Ramius