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Too Soon to Call
Author: Raine    Date: 08/08/2018 13:10:17

Ohio 12th district! From this morning's Washington Post:
The race was the latest example of increased Democratic energy and tepid Republican candidate performance that has defined recent special elections, including House races in Arizona and Pennsylvania and a Senate race in Alabama.

Despite Republicans dramatically outspending Democrats and a last-minute visit by Trump, Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson received just 1,754 more votes than Democrat Danny O’Connor, an elected county recorder, with thousands of provisional votes still outstanding.

The margin of less than 1 percent came in a district that Trump won by 11 points in 2016 and where Republicans have held control since 1983. If the vote difference tightens further, it could trigger an automatic recount under Ohio election law.
This is a race that by all measures, from Gerrymandering to its generally republican-leaning residents who call John Kasich their own, should never have been in play for the Democratic party. This has been a solid GOP stronghold for decades. Until now.

The Cook Political Report has something to say about this and other races we are looking at come November.
In July of 2006, The Cook Political Report rated just 14 GOP-held seats as highly vulnerable. By November, the number of GOP-held seats in danger had tripled to 43. We saw a similar pattern in 2010. In August of that year, we listed 36 Democratic-held seats as highly vulnerable. By November, the number of vulnerable Democratic-held seats had more than doubled to 78. On Election Day of 2006, Republicans lost 30 seats; Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010.

(snip)

There wasn’t a point where the bottom just dropped out for one party. The approval rating for President George W. Bush was 40 percent in mid-July of 2006 and 38 percent in early November. President Obama was sitting at 44 percent in mid-August of 2010 and 45 percent in early November.

Nor was it that a bunch of ‘new’ districts came into play between the summer and fall of those years. By the summer of 2006 and 2010, the Cook Political Report had already identified as shaky or potentially weak all but a handful of the seats that ultimately fell that fall.

Instead, as summer turned to fall it became more and more clear that things weren’t going to get any better for the party in the White House. And, as such, races that we listed as potentially vulnerable in the summer were moved into the more highly vulnerable category by fall.
2006 was the year Nancy Pelosi became the Speaker of the house.

Just to put a finer point on this, Democrats need 23 seats. Again, according to the Cook Political Report as of Jul 27 2018, there are 24 GOP toss-up races and 26 lean GOP races. It's too soon to call, but the chances of us taking the House are looking better and better. Take some time to dance, breathe, celebrate...

However, don't be complacent - take someone with you to the polls in November.

and

Raine



 
 

30 comments (Latest Comment: 08/08/2018 20:49:36 by Scoopster)
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Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 13:13:12




Comment by wickedpam on 08/08/2018 13:29:40
Morning


Love that they closed that gap, that's just amazing!

What I don't get is why they are having the special election just to turn around and have the standard election in November. Seems like a waste of the states money.

Comment by Scoopster on 08/08/2018 13:48:21
Mornin' all..

It's not even 10am and this day has already been nuts. The Manafort trial carries on, we're still waiting for final results from OH-12, the Missouri RTW law got TROUNCED big time...

...and for the first time, Jester showed us his face.

Comment by Scoopster on 08/08/2018 13:50:54
oh wait, there's more!



Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 13:55:31
What the Phuq?






Comment by BobR on 08/08/2018 13:55:32
And - Commerce Secretary Wilbur "Campbell's Soup" Ross accused of stealing $120M from previous company

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 13:56:27
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all..

It's not even 10am and this day has already been nuts. The Manafort trial carries on, we're still waiting for final results from OH-12, the Missouri RTW law got TROUNCED big time...

...and for the first time, Jester showed us his face.

I saw that!

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 13:56:50
Quote by Scoopster:
oh wait, there's more!


HOLY CHIT!

Comment by BobR on 08/08/2018 13:57:00
Quote by Raine:
What the Phuq?





"Enhancing legislative dialog"?? What unholy fucking idea is that? Letting Russia have a say in our government lawmaking??

Comment by wickedpam on 08/08/2018 13:59:55
Quote by Raine:
What the Phuq?







Feel like this is when you get your pet a pet. Russia got hits old, racist dog in tRump, then they got their dog a fresh new puppy to perk him up. Honestly, it would not surprise me if the Russian's has Paul in their pocket too.

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 14:02:16
Rand Paul in a Russian asset, IMO -- there is no question about it to me. This is fcking traitorous.

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 14:09:15






Comment by Will in Chicago on 08/08/2018 15:09:43
Good morning, bloggers!!!

We should be heartened by what we saw in the elections yesterday.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 08/08/2018 15:11:00
I have good news. A local district has a sudden opening for an English teacher and I am interviewing for the job this afternoon.



Comment by Mondobubba on 08/08/2018 15:29:47
:peeks into blog:

Oh, dear! So much going on!


Comment by Will in Chicago on 08/08/2018 15:32:22
Quote by Raine:






Michael Blake, vice chairman of the Democratic National Party, tells Fox and Friends that the Democrats are the party that is not going to jail.


Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 15:50:51




Comment by livingonli on 08/08/2018 15:54:19
Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 15:59:34

Time to drain the swamp!

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 16:09:13
And there is this little bit of election fraud.


A special prosecutor was appointed Tuesday to investigate claims that aides to Rep. Scott W. Taylor (R-Va.) illegally forged signatures to help an independent candidate get on the ballot, hoping to give their boss an edge over his Democratic challenger in the midterm elections.

Aides to Taylor, a freshman lawmaker from Virginia Beach, collected signatures for independent candidate Shaun Brown, who analysts say could siphon votes away from Taylor’s Democratic challenger, Elaine Luria.




Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 17:43:04
Apropos of the blog, is this from Jennifer Rubin.
The district is so heavily Republican that Democrats were prepared to declare victory so long as the race was close. It was really close, depriving partisans of their definitive outcome. Perhaps it is a reminder that special elections, despite the amount of attention they garner, have little predictive value. Charlie Cook wrote before all the votes were counted:

The fact is, we knew a year ago that the Republican majority in the House was in danger, we knew it a month ago, we know it today, and we will know it tomorrow, next week, and all the way up to Election Day. Special elections in odd years and early in election years can give us an indication of which way the wind is blowing and a rough idea of velocity, but once you get within 100 days or so of the general election, electoral dynamics are pretty much set. In modern history, we’ve never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm-election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don’t reverse direction or dissipate.

In other words, the cake already has been baked for November. Running an essentially even race in a district that should not remotely be in play will please Democrats. For Republicans, they averted complete disaster but should keep preparing for a big blue wave. They need to worry about more than 60 seats that are less Republican than the Ohio-12.






Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 18:36:04
Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 19:31:30

I've been trying to digest this story the past hour.

This is an utter disregard for EVERYTHING government is supposed to be about.

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 19:32:24
State of Emergency Declared for Virginia -- thanks to Nazi's.

I'm glad our governor did this.

Comment by Raine on 08/08/2018 19:54:18
Twitter Jack is going to be interviewed on Sean Hannity's radio show.

Let's just let that sink in.

Comment by Scoopster on 08/08/2018 19:59:39
In case you were wondering what Rand Paul hand delivered to Putin yesterday...



Comment by livingonli on 08/08/2018 20:16:30
Instead of draining the swamp, it's been covered with gold with a Trump sign flashing on it.

Comment by wickedpam on 08/08/2018 20:45:34
Quote by Raine:
Twitter Jack is going to be interviewed on Sean Hannity's radio show.

Let's just let that sink in.



Explains a lot.