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Does this make census?
Author: BobR    Date: 12/30/2009 13:30:47

The recent passage of the Senate health care reform bill has been so much on the minds of political junkies, it seems the passing of the House bill happened a lifetime ago. It was the House bill that created the uproar with the town hall meetings and the litany of lies (such as "death panels") and ultimately only passed by the addition of the Stupak amendment. Despite having a seemingly large majority of the seats there, it is still a thin edge when it comes to getting legislation through.

That edge is likely to get thinner in 2010 for two reasons. First, Obama won't be on the ticket, and the Republican failures of the past decade will be a dim memory for a short-attention-span-I-want-it-now populace. The other reason will be the census.

In a recent column by Chris Cillizza, he analyzes the population estimates from a Census Bureau report. Historically, the report is accurate, so we can use it to make projections. Even though House members have to run for re-election every two years, the census is used to apportion Representatives among the 50 states only every 10 years. After the census, we're stuck with the change until 2020.

How will this change the balance of power? Going strictly on the changes via the census (ignoring voter sentiment, etc.), it seems that Blue states are losing 8 seats and Red states are gaining 8. From a table linked in the same article:

Gaining seats
  • Arizona (+1)*

  • Florida (+1)

  • Nevada (+1)

  • South Carolina (+1)

  • Texas (+4)

  • Utah (+1)

  • Washington (+1)*

Losing seats
  • Illinois (-1)

  • Iowa (-1)*

  • Louisiana (-1)

  • Massachusetts (-1)

  • Michigan (-1)

  • Minnesota (-1)

  • New York (-1)

  • Ohio (-2)

  • Pennsylvania (-1)
*An independent commission draws the congressional lines.

This alone will change the balance of power in the Republicans' favor:

Current:
Dems: 257 59%
Reps: 178 41%

Post-Census:
Dems: 249 57%
Reps: 186 43%

Also note the footnote - the article was focusing on governor's races as well, and who draws the district lines. I'm sure everyone remembers the infamous bruhaha in Texas in 2003 where the state House Dems left the state to prevent a quorum vote on an obviously gerrymandered redistricting pushed through by the state Republicans. The census results will require all of the states gaining or losing a representative to redraw district lines. Depending on state law and which party is in charge, that could lead to even further losses for the Dems - and that's without a single vote being cast by the populace.

This is why it's so important to get out the vote in 2010 and 2012. Despite your disappointment and disillusionment with the Senate health care bill or the President's actions in Afghanistan, it is vitally important that everyone votes, lest we return to Republican rule. The time to fight for more progressive candidates is in the primaries, and then vote for the Dem in the general election, regardless of whether the candidate you supported wins the primary.

If you're not sure you can do it in 2010, just remember 1994 when the Republicans controlled congress (and tried to impeach Bill Clinton). If you're not sure you can do it in 2012, just remember 2000-2006 when the Republicans controlled everything.

The census alone will shift a minimum of 8 votes across the aisle - pragmatism is a requirement for us to ensure it is only 8.

 

49 comments (Latest Comment: 12/31/2009 01:56:11 by clintster)
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Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 13:40:23
Morning

Comment by TriSec on 12/30/2009 13:56:46
Morning, folks.



I'm afraid Gerrymandering was one of the sorriest things to ever come out of this Commonwealth. Wouldn't it make more sense to have city or county-based voting districts?



Take a look at Barney Frank's District. (4th MA). What could the upperclass suburbanites of Brookline possibly have in common with the working-class immigrants in Fall River?



Yet, they're in the same district for political purposes.



(Check your districts, too.)



Of course, the census is highly suspect anyway. I blogged about it months ago.



Right from Article I, Section 2:





The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten years, in such manner as they shall by law direct. The number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty thousand, but each state shall have at least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the state of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five, and Georgia three.




Based on the current population of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (6.4 mil), shouldn't we have 213 representatives in Congress? Waltham alone should have 2 (80,000).



But I digress.





Comment by Scoopster on 12/30/2009 14:19:21
Morning all! I've been looking for a way to push the topic of bringing actual representation in the Congress to where it's supposed to be, or at least to a number that is more representative of the population. 1:30K is a bit of a logistical mess with our current population estimates, because that means we'd need meeting space and the ability to pay ten thousand Reps for their work. So to be more reasonable, at 1:250K it would be 1,200 Reps... about three times as much representation as there is now. But the Senate would remain the same.





Oh yea BTW has my BJ gift arrived at its destination yet? If not I HOPE it will be there today.. ugh!

Comment by BobR on 12/30/2009 14:21:59
I've been reading some things about how the "Boner Bomber" might have been a False Flag / Psyops operation, and it got me thinking, especially with regards to this picture:



http://abcnews.go.com/images/Blotter/abc_a_PETN_underwear_091228_main.jpg




Are these supposed to be the actual underpants worn by the bomber? If so - where are the burn marks?

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 14:37:17
okay....um....eeeewwww to the undies







Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 14:40:45
ohhh Hal might get his own show

Comment by Raine on 12/30/2009 15:07:31
wonderful and wonky blog today!



Good Morning!

Comment by clintster on 12/30/2009 15:19:45
Meanwhile, someone gets butthurt over a comparison of the movie "A Face in the Crowd" to Glenn Beck.





Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 15:26:29
Quote by clintster:

Meanwhile, someone gets butthurt over a comparison of the movie "A Face in the Crowd" to Glenn Beck.







idiots

Comment by BobR on 12/30/2009 15:35:15
Quote by clintster:

Meanwhile, someone gets butthurt over a comparison of the movie "A Face in the Crowd" to Glenn Beck.







Comment by Scoopster on 12/30/2009 16:05:26
Quote by clintster:

Meanwhile, someone gets butthurt over a comparison of the movie "A Face in the Crowd" to Glenn Beck.





The only reason Nolte has to be butthurt over this is if he's a conservatard himself. The movie itself IS a valid comparison to today's opinion talk hosts whether they be Beck, Hannity, Olbermann or hell even Randi Rhodes or Mike Malloy. The fact that the character in the movie is described as "evil" only means that the comparison to right-wing hate radio is MUCH more appropriate.

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 16:17:34
Raine - Reps stuff - can't say it on twitter cause someone I work with follows me there - have to be vague

Comment by Raine on 12/30/2009 16:20:16
I thought so Mala.

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 16:23:50
It wouldn't bother me so much if it weren't 1) the same person who thinks I only work for them and 2) if the info hadn't gone out almost 2 weeks ago and they are just NOW getting back to me

Comment by livingonli on 12/30/2009 16:29:47
Good morning everyone.



It got really cold last night. It was in the teens but with the wind it felt like single digits. A good night to be under the covers.

Comment by livingonli on 12/30/2009 16:33:15
Are we opening Blogger Joe's today or tomorrow

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 16:39:26
I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home

Comment by clintster on 12/30/2009 16:40:41
Quote by Scoopster:

Quote by clintster:

Meanwhile, someone gets butthurt over a comparison of the movie "A Face in the Crowd" to Glenn Beck.





The only reason Nolte has to be butthurt over this is if he's a conservatard himself. The movie itself IS a valid comparison to today's opinion talk hosts whether they be Beck, Hannity, Olbermann or hell even Randi Rhodes or Mike Malloy. The fact that the character in the movie is described as "evil" only means that the comparison to right-wing hate radio is MUCH more appropriate.




Agreed. I think this guy's objection is that it might hit a little too close to home.

Comment by Scoopster on 12/30/2009 16:48:56
Comment by livingonli on 12/30/2009 17:01:27
Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home


Mine's been sitting in my room for almost a week and a half now. At least I know mine reached its destination.

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 17:22:41
Quote by livingonli:

Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home


Mine's been sitting in my room for almost a week and a half now. At least I know mine reached its destination.






its taunting you with its un-openness isn't it

Comment by livingonli on 12/30/2009 17:39:42
Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by livingonli:

Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home


Mine's been sitting in my room for almost a week and a half now. At least I know mine reached its destination.






its taunting you with its un-openness isn't it


You Betcha.

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 17:47:47
Quote by livingonli:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by livingonli:

Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home


Mine's been sitting in my room for almost a week and a half now. At least I know mine reached its destination.






its taunting you with its un-openness isn't it


You Betcha.








Comment by clintster on 12/30/2009 18:04:13
Oh great. I turn on CNN and see that an illegally parked van caused a ZOMG Terrorists freakout. News media: get a freakin' grip!

Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 18:22:27
Quote by TriSec:

Morning, folks.



I'm afraid Gerrymandering was one of the sorriest things to ever come out of this Commonwealth. Wouldn't it make more sense to have city or county-based voting districts?



Take a look at Barney Frank's District. (4th MA). What could the upperclass suburbanites of Brookline possibly have in common with the working-class immigrants in Fall River?



Yet, they're in the same district for political purposes.



(Check your districts, too.)



Of course, the census is highly suspect anyway. I blogged about it months ago.



Right from Article I, Section 2:





The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten years, in such manner as they shall by law direct. The number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty thousand, but each state shall have at least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the state of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five, and Georgia three.




Based on the current population of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (6.4 mil), shouldn't we have 213 representatives in Congress? Waltham alone should have 2 (80,000).



But I digress.







Pfft Barney Frank's district that isn't a gerrymander. Florida's 4th district is a gerrymander. It is specifically set designed to not include the north side of Jacksonville (the part of the city with the largest African American population). It does however manage to include both the Naval Air Station & Naval Base Mayport. Basically the district has been designed so that any half retarded empty Republican suit will win. In a whimsical bit of irony, the district does include the Riverside and Avondale historic districts. Which have the largest gay population of the city. That's right Ander "Lives In Tom Delay's Pants" Crenshaw, a guy who says marriage is between a man and a woman has a sizable gay constituency. Who he really doesn't serve. Here is a map of the district.



Take a look at Florida's 3rd district (Corrine Brown). She represents a national forest and a state conservation area.

Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 18:29:15
Bob, great blog today. One thing though, you seem to be implying that the losses in seats and the redistricting will have an effect (affect I get them mixed up, sorry) on the 2010 races. Since the census data won't be parsed, examined, collated etc until after both the primaries and general elections, it won't have any bearing on them. Cilliza's article even states that any redistricting resulting from the census won't happen until 2011.

Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 18:31:41
Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 19:17:15
Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)

Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 19:28:01
Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)




She's eighty.

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 19:29:44
Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)




She's eighty.




Awwww - see now I think thats sweet



Comment by clintster on 12/30/2009 19:59:44
Just a little best of to look back at a crazy year. Jon Stewart out-Becks Beck over an appendix.



The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
The 11/3 Project
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorHealth Care Crisis


Comment by Raine on 12/30/2009 20:03:36
Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)




She's eighty.




Awwww - see now I think thats sweet

Wow to both of you!



I was a bit taken back when my mom friended me, but to tell the truth, it has actually helped in her understanding of me and my beliefs.



Strange, I know.



Comment by Raine on 12/30/2009 20:04:52
Quote by clintster:

Oh great. I turn on CNN and see that an illegally parked van caused a ZOMG Terrorists freakout. News media: get a freakin' grip!


the same media that reported that soldiers were killed today -- that were not.



Sadly tho, Americans were killed.

Comment by Raine on 12/30/2009 20:06:27
Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home
if bobbers gift doesn't show up, we should still go with tomorrow.







Comment by TriSec on 12/30/2009 20:24:00
Howdy, folks!



Back from a long day of American Consumerism....(had some gift cards to spend.)



I finally bought a GPS after lo these many years. It's a nice one, too (Garmin 255w Nuvi). Best Buy was having a wing-dinger of a sale on it. (I don't get a discount on GPS at the ol' Bean.)





Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 20:24:36
Quote by Raine:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)




She's eighty.




Awwww - see now I think thats sweet

Wow to both of you!



I was a bit taken back when my mom friended me, but to tell the truth, it has actually helped in her understanding of me and my beliefs.



Strange, I know.





Actually, I don't think it is that strange. It's a lot easier to explain stuff through examples sometimes.

Comment by Mondobubba on 12/30/2009 20:28:21
Quote by TriSec:

Howdy, folks!



Back from a long day of American Consumerism....(had some gift cards to spend.)



I finally bought a GPS after lo these many years. It's a nice one, too (Garmin 255w Nuvi). Best Buy was having a wing-dinger of a sale on it. (I don't get a discount on GPS at the ol' Bean.)







Tri, I'm a little stunned that you of the BSA merit badge for orienteering got a GPS. You should have gotten the Snoop Dogg TomTom GPS, yo. It is the shiznit!

Comment by wickedpam on 12/30/2009 20:30:48
Quote by Raine:

Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home
if bobbers gift doesn't show up, we should still go with tomorrow.











its not Bobbers but I think someone should be getting theirs today, unless I spoke too soon and USPS has failed me too

Comment by BobR on 12/30/2009 22:36:03
Quote by Raine:

Quote by wickedpam:

I'm going with tomorrow - I left mine at home
if bobbers gift doesn't show up, we should still go with tomorrow.







It did not. If it doesn't show up tomorrow, you can go on without me.

Comment by BobR on 12/30/2009 22:47:04
Quote by clintster:

Just a little best of to look back at a crazy year. Jon Stewart out-Becks Beck over an appendix.



The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
The 11/3 Project
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorHealth Care Crisis


Brilliant!!



A year old, but worthy of the re-post

Comment by TriSec on 12/30/2009 22:47:53
Now now, I'm a certified map geek. I'm not about to forget how to use my compass when I need it. (I have three right now.) I know where I'm going; I'm just a sucker for trip computers and moving map widgets. I have been known to spend hours staring at a moving Google Earth map driving somewhere I want to go someday.









Comment by livingonli on 12/30/2009 22:52:15
Quote by Raine:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by wickedpam:

Quote by Mondobubba:

Oh my God. My MOTHER IS ON FACEBOOK! :thud: :thud:






lol - I don't feel so bad now that my dad friended me on facebook after an awkward Christmas day phone conversation (we haven't spoken in a couple of years again)




She's eighty.




Awwww - see now I think thats sweet

Wow to both of you!



I was a bit taken back when my mom friended me, but to tell the truth, it has actually helped in her understanding of me and my beliefs.



Strange, I know.



Isn't that usually the sign when something is no longer cool. Imagine if these relatives start showing up on Twitter (I have yet to show up there myself).

Comment by Scoopster on 12/30/2009 23:55:00
Quote by BobR:

Quote by clintster:

Just a little best of to look back at a crazy year. Jon Stewart out-Becks Beck over an appendix.



The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
The 11/3 Project
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorHealth Care Crisis


Brilliant!!



A year old, but worthy of the re-post


I love it!

Comment by Scoopster on 12/30/2009 23:56:12
Oh yea - got confirmation that my package is en route and should arrive tomorrow..

Comment by TriSec on 12/30/2009 23:59:31
Ah, I have a package that the wandering Joseph hath brought.



Come fom Virginia, it did.





Comment by TriSec on 12/31/2009 00:58:25
I'm working 9:30 to 6:00 tomorrow, BTW.



But.....I'm off all New Year's Day. (our annual attempt at Filipino cookery.)



Can Joe be a New Year's present?



: ducks incoming brick :





Comment by Raine on 12/31/2009 01:49:12
Comment by clintster on 12/31/2009 01:56:11
Quote by TriSec:

I'm working 9:30 to 6:00 tomorrow, BTW.



But.....I'm off all New Year's Day. (our annual attempt at Filipino cookery.)



Can Joe be a New Year's present?



: ducks incoming brick :