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I read the news today, Oh boy
Author: Raine    Date: 01/31/2011 13:46:57

To learn that 6 al Jazeera reporters have been detained in Egypt, all equipment seems to have been confiscated. Say a prayer for their safety.

This newest turn of events does not bode well for the situation in Egypt or its current government. I would like to start this blog out making something very clear. I am with the people of Egypt. I am for them protesting, and I am for them removing their government and replacing it with one of their choosing.

I am not for United States of America's military intervention, beyond the peacekeeping forces we have had in in Sinai for decades. Nor am I for our government openly advocating overthrow. There are a number of reasons for this, so I do hope you hear me out. First, this is a sensitive region in a very unstable area of the world. We have indeed supplied to the Egyptian government many billions of dollars over the past 30 years. There is a reason for this.
Most of the money for these four countries is allocated for “peace and security,” a broad category that includes combating drug traffickers and terrorists as well as preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In Egypt specifically, $1.3 billion of the requested amount this year is for “peace and security.”

U.S. foreign aid has a variety of goals. Among them, lifting people out of poverty, promoting democracy and economic stability worldwide, and bolstering strategic alliances. According to the government’s user-friendly Web site, www.foreignassistance.gov, Uncle Sam doles out “more than $58 billion a year in foreign assistance through more than 20 agencies.” More than half of that, roughly $37 billion, is managed by the State Department and USAID.
It is quite obvious that this money is not going twards those goals. This is a serious problem and I see that many lawmakers are asking the USA to cut off aid to the nation. What is little known is that this is already happening. The Obama administration has been cutting funding.
In its first year, the Obama administration cut funding for democracy and governance programming in Egypt by more than half, from $50 million in 2008 to $20 million in 2009 (Congress later appropriated another $5 million). The level of funding for civil society programs and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) was cut disproportionately, from $32 million to only $7 million. Though funding levels for 2010 are not yet available, they are expected to show an increase to $14 million, says Stephen McInerny, the director of advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy. He notes that the Bush administration slashed economic aid to Egypt in the 2009 budget but kept the funding for democracy and governance programs constant, while Obama cut funding to those programs in an effort to make the cuts more proportional and under pressure from the American embassy in Cairo.

The White House and the State Department did not return emails for comment.
This move was to the dismay of Human Rights activists. I personally am of the opinion is that it was to destabilize the region, considering Obama had warned Mubarak of regime change as early as 2008, claiming that he needed to get ahead of civil rights abuses. I believe this is good enough. This is for Egypt to solve, it is their country. Speaking for myself, if I wanted a chest pounding mission accomplished type of president as some have called for Obama to act like, I would have voted for McCain. Diplomacy is happening here, and sometimes diplomacy isn't pretty.

I bring up chest thumping, because I remember March of 2003. I remember that I -- as one of millions of liberals -- marched, wrote letters and pleaded with the administration at the time to NOT do this. I understand the situations are quite different, but it was an unjustified reason to invade a country. It was veiled under the guise that we would be helping the people of Iraq. Our suspicions since that time so many years ago have been proven true. We are still in a terrible quagmire as a result.

We are still in Afghanistan... the never ending money pit. A money pit I might add, that if the dots were connected realistically-- one could (and many have) made the case that this led to the fall of the Soviet Union. Why we are still there is another discussion, but the cost of these 2 occupations are the result of cowboy diplomacy. It's neo-conservative bullshit that got us into this mess. If I wanted more of that, I would have voted for it. I find myself dismayed that many liberals are calling for Obama to act just like Bush did with regard to Iraq.

The last reason I am very concerned about this situation, is that it reminds me of a situation we experienced back in 1979. It was the Iranian Revolution.
Demonstrations against the Shah began in January 1978. Between August and December 1978 strikes and demonstrations paralyzed the country. The Shah left Iran for exile in mid-January 1979, and in the resulting power vacuum two weeks later Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Tehran to a greeting by several million Iranians. The royal regime collapsed shortly after on February 11 when guerrillas and rebel troops overwhelmed troops loyal to the Shah in armed street fighting. Iran voted by national referendum to become an Islamic Republic on April 1, 1979, and to approve a new theocratic constitution whereby Khomeini became Supreme Leader of the country, in December 1979.

The revolution was unusual for the surprise it created throughout the world: it lacked many of the customary causes of revolution (defeat at war, a financial crisis, peasant rebellion, or disgruntled military); produced profound change at great speed; was massively popular; overthrew a regime heavily protected by a lavishly financed army and security services; and replaced a modernising monarchy with a theocracy based on Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists (or velayat-e faqih). Its outcome — an Islamic Republic "under the guidance of an 80-year-old exiled religious scholar from Qom" — was, as one scholar put it, "clearly an occurrence that had to be explained."
This nation, as well as many others are still experiencing blowback from all three of these globe-changing occurrences. The blowback is dangerous and deadly.

I would prefer our nation take a hands-off approach in Egypt. Let them choose, but encourage them to make a good choice. Interim opposition Leader ElBaradei has stated on more than one occasion that the Muslim Brotherhood is seeking to assist a secular government. From a CNN interview
I’m quite confident of that, Fareed. This is a myth that was sold by the Mabarak regime, that it’s either us — the ruthless dictators — or a Muslim al-Qaeda type. The Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian movement, has nothing to do with extremism as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places. The Muslim Brotherhood is a religiously conservative group. They are a minority in Egypt. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people, but they have a lot of credibility because of liberal parties have been a struggle for thirty years. They are in favor of a secular state. they are of –they are in favor of an institution that have bread lines, they are in favor that every Egyptian have the same rights, that the state is in no way a state based on religion. And I have been reaching out to them. We need to include them. They are as much a part of society as the markets that started here. I think this is a myth that has been perpetuated and sold by the regime and has no iota of reality. You know Fareed, I worked with Iranians, I’ve worked here. It’s 100 percent difference between the two societies.
This still remains to be seen, but so far, it seems to be true. They do not appear to be the bogeymen that the likes of John Bolton would have you believe. Yes they are secular and conservative, but so is our current crop of GOP's, and for all it's messiness, we are still plugging along here in America. I'm inclined to believe that ElBaradei. is a rational man.
ElBaradei earned a Bachelor's degree in law from the University of Cairo in 1962, followed by a DEA degree in International Law at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva and a PhD in International Law at the New York University School of Law in 1974.

His diplomatic career began in 1964 in the Ministry of External Affairs, where he served in the Permanent Missions of Egypt to the United Nations in New York and in Geneva, in charge of political, legal, and arms control issues. From 1974 to 1978, he was a special assistant to the Foreign Minister. In 1980, he became a senior fellow in charge of the International Law Program at the United Nations Institute for Training and Research. From 1981 to 1987, he was also an Adjunct Professor of International Law at New York University School of Law.

In 1984, ElBaradei became a senior staff member of the IAEA Secretariat, serving as the Agency's legal adviser (1984 to 1993) and Assistant Director General for External Relations (1993 to 1997).

ElBaradei began serving as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency on December 1, 1997, succeeding Hans Blix of Sweden. He was re-elected for two more four-year terms in 2001 and 2005. His third and last term ended in November 2009. Elbaradei's tenure has been marked by high profile non-proliferation issues including the inspections in Iraq preceding the March 2003 invasion and tensions over the nuclear program of Iran.

ElBaradei is a current member of the International Law Association and the American Society of International Law.
Time will tell what happens in the Middle East. For now, I would prefer our Country take the path that we are taking. We won't know who the leader of Egypt will be, and we certainly don't want to become an enemy. As a private citizen I support peaceful non-violent resistance, and I feel as all citizens should support the people of Egypt as well, but I want the government to stay as far out of it as they can. I don't believe in nation-building.

We know where that got us.

and
Raine
 

48 comments (Latest Comment: 02/01/2011 01:24:06 by TriSec)
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