Now, I’ve spent the last few weeks…days…hours…trying to figure out how best to use all the data I’ve been collecting and use it to practical purposes. It finally occurred to me, I am going to dispel some myths about the current campaign and how well someone may have done, and how poorly another one would do.

First, I’ll discuss what is talked about, ad nauseum, by the media. And that is, Obama and McCain are in a close race. Of course, how can you blame them, in a culture that loves the 5 second sound bite, who has time to listen to in-depth analysis of state-by-state polls? Hell, some states haven’t had a proper poll since February. So, if we were to look at what National polls say…






…Pretty clustered…uh…Can we have a closer look?





Better…

So, we can see that Obama and McCain are pretty close. I mean…what, a few points apart at some parts. Even looks like McCain pulls ahead of Obama at that one part, around, August 3rd there. So, that means it’s a close race, right? Well, Wrong.

Another piece of Graphical Evidence…





Now, who here knows what Electoral Colleges are? Well, quick run down, just incase. States get X amount of votes (Florida – 27). And who ever gets the most votes out of that state gets Florida, and hence 27 its votes. So it’s not how many votes you win, but really, how many states, or more importantly, what states, you win.

So, let us look at that graph again. Obama has 322 votes, McCain 216. Now, I’m not exactly sure, but 322/216 is not proportional to 46/45. But I could be wrong. So let's check. (538 is the total possible votes, roughly 270 to win). Now, 322 is 59.85% of 538. And, 216 is 40.15%. Instead of a point difference between Obama and McCain, we see a MASSIVE 20 point difference. You tell me, is this a close race?

Just a quickie here, it includes Barr and Nader. Multi-Party
Though that I do find is suspicious that in the Fox multi-Party poll, Barr got zero percent. But then again look at Obama’s numbers: 46, 49, 48, 40, 49, and 51. Guess which number came from Fox.


Now, recently, we’ve all had to suffer through the media’s fascination with Edwards and his wayward…thing…I’ve already made my opinion of this known, so I won’t go into that. Instead, I’m going into the claim by our favorite bad sweater wearing Hillary shill Wolfson said earlier this week. If this had happened before Iowa, Hillary would have one, and Hillary would be our nominee. So, one of many weird arguments that we should through Obama aside and Hillary should be the democratic Nominee, not the weirdest, but…certainly in the top…2.

We see a strange occurrence in the states following the Super Tuesday. An average of polls has Clinton near, or a bit over what she received in the primary. While Obama is almost always significantly lower in those polls than in his primary win. So, we can make a bit of an assumption, that Obama really got a boost from Edwards leaving the race.

So, what does that mean for Iowa? Well, let’s take what we know about the effect Edwards had in his leaving, and apply to Iowa...and for the hell of it, Lets check out later states as well.

Obama's points
Iowa: Old - 38 New - 68
New Hampshire: Old - 36 New - 53
Nevada: Old - 45 New - 49
South Carolina: Old - 55 New - 73

So...now let’s compare. (Same order)
Obama/Clinton
68/29
39/53
49/51
73/27

So, she’d have lost New Hampshire, but win Nevada in a squeaker. Who wants to bet this thing would still have gone into June.

As we wind down. I’d like to address an oldie, but a goodie, since we’re on weird reasons why Hillary should be nominee instead of Obama. Who remembers the talking point, Hillary is winning the big states, or she’s got more electoral votes, or whatever BS turn of phrase that basically meant, McCain will win all the States Hillary did. So, let’s have a look, what states did Hillary win?

Hillary won: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.

So, lets look at the States Obama is currently winning. Those that are bold are the same states Hillary won.

Obama: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Alright, so, Hillary won Twenty-Two states in the primary. And Obama is currently ahead in Twenty-Eight states. Incase you’re wondering, Thirteen of those states are states Hillary won. So…what we all knew, that primary win does not mean a win in the General.


Now, to wind down with a few personal notes…

1.) Yes, I may have been a bit unfair to Hillary, and well, the stupid things she was said, or what Wolfson, McAuliffe, or Penn has said. But I refuse to apologize. In fact, this entire post has just been an excuse for me to vent about the primary, thank you for sitting through it.

2.) Well, there is a hurricane coming through here in a few days, but it looks like it will miss random here by just a little...

3.) Over the weekend, I purchased “The Political Machine 2008”. I’ve found it to be a wonderful fun little game, where you pick your favorite candidate, from Obama, to Paul. (Well, not Barr, apparently, it’s only Reps versus Dems). Travel across the country giving speeches, placing ads, going on Larry King, Stephen Colbert, or Bill O’Reilly. Random has enjoyed this game, a lot. And if anyone has it, I’ll challenge you to online play. Yes...I am trying to sell a game. I'm shameless.

4.) Finally, I have updated the Blog Pool over the weekend, where you can find all these lovely graphs, along with others, like states polls, and the like. National polls will be available. So please stop by every week to see how Obama and McCain are doing.

This is why you have never, nor will you ever again, let me post a blog. So, thank you all for your time, and sitting through my rambling.