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Unintended Consequences
Author: Raine
Date: 08/25/2022 12:33:49
On Tuesday, Pat Ryan (D) was elected to Congress in NY's 19th district. He defeated Marc Molinaro ® in a special election. I know this district, I lived in it many years ago when I was a resident of New York. My sister lives in this district. When the national news tells you it's a swing district, they are spot on. I wasn't sure which way this one would go.
Funny thing about the Republican candidate, I know him. A long time ago, when he was a mayor I did some design work for the town. He was a good guy, and from everything I see, he still is. And that district? There are just as many NYC transplants as there are 'locals' -- I don't see how a TFG acolyte would or could win an election to federal office there. Molinaro is generally liked in that district.
This being a special election, and a primary day, it's not unusual for to expect low voter turnout. Looks like that expectation was wrong. Pat Ryan's campaign slogan?
'Abortion is on the Ballot'
Turns out, people like autonomy over their bodies. It's starting to look like the other party has another albatross around its neck. I say another because while that election had a higher-than-usual turnout for a special election, it looks like the base of that party just isn't really into voting lately.
Now, we are a few months away from election day and a lot could happen in that time. Nonetheless, it appears as though calling elections rigged, stolen, or corrupt by the leaders (and those that want to be leaders) of that party is having an unintended consequence. They are actually suppressing the vote of the very people they want to get them into office. Case it point, Laura Loomer (FRW*). She lost her Primary and won't concede claiming voter fraud. She's now telling people not to vote, pretty much at all, for the person who won the primary who is a Republican.
Funny thing about the Republican candidate, I know him. A long time ago, when he was a mayor I did some design work for the town. He was a good guy, and from everything I see, he still is. And that district? There are just as many NYC transplants as there are 'locals' -- I don't see how a TFG acolyte would or could win an election to federal office there. Molinaro is generally liked in that district.
This being a special election, and a primary day, it's not unusual for to expect low voter turnout. Looks like that expectation was wrong.
Ryan lost nine of NY-19’s 11 counties, but still got 3,000 more votes than Molinaro thanks to a 9,179-vote cushion in Ulster County alongside a 2,322-vote margin of victory in exurban Columbia County.
Total turnout in the special election was 25% districtwide – but was higher in the two counties Ryan won. About 70% of voters in the district also cast ballots in 2020, while 59% voted in 2018. Just 13% of Ulster County voters took part in the 2019 special when Ryan was first elected county executive, while 29% voted Tuesday.
Molinaro conceded defeat Wednesday while suggesting the timing of the special election contributed to his loss in the 19th district, which includes parts of the Hudson Valley and Catskills.
Turns out, people like autonomy over their bodies. It's starting to look like the other party has another albatross around its neck. I say another because while that election had a higher-than-usual turnout for a special election, it looks like the base of that party just isn't really into voting lately.
Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs, which is undeniably true. But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
Now, we are a few months away from election day and a lot could happen in that time. Nonetheless, it appears as though calling elections rigged, stolen, or corrupt by the leaders (and those that want to be leaders) of that party is having an unintended consequence. They are actually suppressing the vote of the very people they want to get them into office. Case it point, Laura Loomer (FRW*). She lost her Primary and won't concede claiming voter fraud. She's now telling people not to vote, pretty much at all, for the person who won the primary who is a Republican.
After losing her primary to Daniel Webster, Laura Loomer tells her voters not to vote for the Republican nominee in Nov, and calls for him to resign. pic.twitter.com/D0WPs56ou1
— Ron Filipkowski
