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What Wave?
Author: BobR    Date: 11/09/2022 13:56:18

Yesterday's election was true to form - lot's teeth gnashing, prognosticating about huge wins a losses for one party or another, and then finally what looks like almost no change whatsoever. There are still plenty of seats too close or too early to call as of this writing, but the end result will likely be more of the same.

Per CNN's election tracking site, the Dems actually flipped one seat in their favor. That would be John Fetterman beating Dr. Oz, a win we can all look at with satisfaction. It's still possible for the Dems to lose a couple (NV and possibly AZ). Wisconsin is amazingly close, which means the Biggest Asshole in the Senate (Republican Ron Johnson) could possibly lose.

Warnock is still ahead in GA, but because of state rules, unless a candidate gets 50% + 1 of the votes, there has to be a runoff. Libertarian Chase Oliver currently is pulling 2% of the vote, which might be enough to force the runoff. There's some interesting math, though, when it comes to election results. Republican Brian Kemp handily one re-election as governor with 2.1M votes (to Stacey Abram's 1.8M). However, in the Senate race, both Warnock and Walker got about 1.9M votes. That means about 200K voters chose the Republican Kemp for governor and the Democrat Warnock for the Senate. If there's a runoff, it means a likely good turnout for Warnock.

For the House, it currently appears that the Republicans flipped 9 seats, while the Democrats flipped 3, leading to a 6 point gain for the Republicans, which is enough for them to take control. Buried in that is some good news - Boebert (R-CO) is currently losing in her district, which could mean a flip to the Democrats. That one is still too-close-to-call.

In VA, a seat was lost to the Republicans, but not Abigail Spanberger's - she beat challenger Yesli Vega, who is a terrible person along with being a Republican.

In Governor's races, Democrats replaced Republicans in 2 states: MA and MD. Both were expected to win. Here in MD, Wesley Moore beat Dan Cox to be the first black governor of the state. That also puts the state back in Democratic hands after 8 years of Republican Larry Hogan. Hogan ran the state as a moderate republican (he kind of had to), and refused to endorse Dan Cox as his replacement. He is also a "never-tRumper", which means he likely has no future in the Republican party.

Or - maybe that's not true. Those candidates endorsed by TFG did not do well, and are likely to follow his lead by disputing the results. That overall tone is problematic, and will continue to be for years to come. If they win - it's a legit election; if they lose - it's "rigged". Why Democrats don't rig enough elections to gain and/or maintain control of all the seats in Congress is a logical fallacy to their paranoid conspiracy theories that they apparently don't have the brain power to entertain.

Today, the pundits will ponder why the polls before the election were so off, and watch each remaining incoming vote tally with breathless "Breaking News!" wonderment, while the rest of us get back to work and wait until ALL the votes are counted.


Bonus Click: Here are the seats that were flipped (so far) in this election.
 

13 comments (Latest Comment: 11/09/2022 20:28:35 by BobR)
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