Once again, the debt ceiling is in the news and is a cause for concern. If the debt ceiling binds, and the U.S. Treasury does not have the ability to pay its obligations, the negative economic effects would quickly mount and risk triggering a deep recession.

The debt limit caps the total amount of allowable outstanding U.S. federal debt. The U.S. hit that limit—$31.4 trillion—on January 19, 2023, but the Department of the Treasury has been undertaking a set of “extraordinary measures” so that the debt limit does not yet bind. Treasury estimates that those measures will be sufficient through at least early June. Sometime after that, unless Congress raises or suspends the debt limit, the federal government will lack the cash to pay all its obligations. Those obligations are the result of laws previously enacted by Congress. As our colleagues Len Burman and Bill Gale wrote, “Raising the debt limit is not about new spending; it is about paying for previous choices policymakers legislated.”

Billions of dollars of veterans benefits could be imperiled if the U.S. defaults on its debts, though the full extent of the fallout is uncertain because of the unprecedented nature of a default.

About $12 billion in veterans benefits are expected to be paid out June 1 -- the same day the Treasury Department has named as the earliest day a default could happen if Congress doesn't act to avoid it.

A default would likely delay those benefits, but for exactly how long would depend on the Treasury's next move after a default, experts who spoke to Military.com said.

***
In addition to potentially hitting veterans benefits, about $12 billion in military and civilian retirement pay that is expected June 1 and about $4 billion in military salaries that is scheduled for June 15 could be disrupted by a default, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin alluded to the potential effect on military pay in congressional testimony last week.

"What it would mean realistically for us is that we won't, in some cases, be able to pay our troops with any degree of predictability," Austin said at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing Thursday.

The head of Russia's feared Wagner private army suggested Sunday that four Russian military aircraft that reportedly crashed in a region that borders Ukraine may have been shot down by Russia's own forces.

Russian officials have not commented on reports in Russian conventional and social media that two fighter planes — an Su-34 and an Su-35 — and two military Mi-8 helicopters crashed in the Bryansk region on Saturday.

State news agency Tass cited unspecified emergency services sources as saying the Su-34 and one helicopter crashed. Other sources, including Vladimir Rogov, the head of a Russian collaborationist organization in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia province, claimed four aircraft went down.

All of them reportedly belonged to the same military air group.

***

Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin offered a...hypothesis.

Four planes, — if you draw a circle in the places of their fall, it turns out that this circle has a diameter (and all of them lie exactly in a circle) of 40 kilometers (25 miles). ... Now go on the Internet and see what kind of air defense weapon could be in the center of this circle, and then build your own versions,” Prigozhin said on Telegram.

Prigozhin, whose forces are in the thick of a grinding monthslong battle for the city of Bakhmut, clarified that he was not “in the know” about the situation. But he has repeatedly criticized the Russian military for its strategy in Ukraine and for allegedly failing to supply Wagner with the ammunition it needs in Bakhmut.