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Author: TriSec    Date: 06/27/2023 00:20:52

Good Morning.

There's an awful lot going on in Eastern Europe these days.


Russia is likely in a state of chaos. Dictators generally don't make deals with those who try to overthrow them - dictators usually execute their opposition. The fact that Putin didn't actually reveals more than you would think.

Ukraine, of course, has noticed - and their troops are riding high on the emotion.


KYIV, Ukraine — The armed rebellion against the Russian military may have been over in less than 24 hours, but the disarray within the enemy’s ranks was an unexpected gift and timely morale booster for Ukrainian troops

The spectacle of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny in the critical military command and control hub in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, and later Russia's scramble to fortify Moscow as troops marched to upend the country’s military leadership was greeted “with applause” by commanders of Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces, said its spokesperson, Serhii Cherevatiy.

“Soldiers at the front lines are positive about it,” he said. “Any chaos and disorder on the enemy’s side benefits us.”

A video of well-known Ukrainian drone commander “Magyar” watching the revolt while eating enormous amounts of popcorn went viral. A plethora of gleeful memes mocking Russian leader Vladimir Putin inundated social media, and statement after statement from Ukraine’s top brass described the turmoil as a sure sign of more instability to come.

The debacle appears to be resolved, for now, with Prigozhin’s exile to Belarus in a deal mediated by Minsk. But for Ukrainians watching, the damage was done: Russian vulnerabilities were exposed, and by agreeing to concessions hours after branding Prigozhin a back-stabbing traitor, Putin appeared weak and desperate.

The short-lived rebellion did not noticeably affect Russian army posture along the 1,000 kilometer (600-mile) front line in eastern Ukraine, but it could give Ukraine the impetus it needs to intensify its counteroffensive, which military leaders have admitted is going slower than expected.

“In the short term, it distracted attention from the war and diverted some resources from the front,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Affairs. But in the longer term, he said, it shows lack of unity among Russia's fighting forces. “It’s terrible for Russia’s morale. The officers and soldiers alike. It’s very good for Ukraine’s morale.”


Only time will tell if there are any long-term effects, although I'll note I was riding pretty high myself this weekend. Despite me having no links to the Rodina, I am a student of Russian music and literature. To see Putin fall would have been glorious. Yet, we wait with the infinite patience of a Russian for such an event.

Moving on to Southeast Asia, we report on something I bet many of a certain generation never thought they'd see. A US Navy vessel making a peaceful port-of-call in Da Nang, as a friend. And the USS Ronald Reagan at that!


BANGKOK — A U.S. aircraft carrier and two guided missile cruisers were visiting Vietnam on Monday, a rare port call that comes as the United States and China increasingly vie for influence in Southeast Asia.

The USS Ronald Reagan, along with the guided missile cruisers USS Antietam and USS Robert Smalls, arrived in Da Nang on Sunday for the visit.

Neighboring China is Vietnam's largest trading partner but Beijing's sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea have led to increasing friction with Vietnam, as well as with Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The U.S., meantime, has been on a diplomatic push to strengthen economic and military ties in the Indo-Pacific region.

The aircraft carrier's port call — only the third such visit since relations were reestablished after the end of the Vietnam war — follows visits to Vietnam this year from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and USAID Administrator Samantha Power.

“Though aircraft carrier visits often spark media attention because of their highly visible nature, the broader question is how this will play into the development of ties, including Washington’s quest to upgrade relations,” Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow with the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, wrote in a research note.

“An overly narrow focus on carrier visits can distract from the broader trend of the more comprehensive development of U.S.-Vietnam defense ties and relations more generally,” Parameswaran added.

Officers from the Ronald Reagan debarked Sunday and were greeted by Vietnamese officers after mooring in Da Nang, a port that was modernized and expanded by the United States during the war for its own use.

Capt. Daryle Cardone, the Ronald Reagan's commanding officer, said some of the more than 5,000 sailors from the ship will volunteer at several community relations events, play sports with local athletes and take part in other cultural and professional exchanges during the visit through June 30.


Things do change. I'm sure an older generation would never think that Navy Ships would ever visit Yokohama peacefully, or the Army side-by-side with the Bundeswehr in Berlin, yet here we are.
 

2 comments (Latest Comment: 06/27/2023 19:03:03 by BobR)
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