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If I had a hammer
Author: TriSec    Date: 05/07/2024 00:30:22

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The law of the instrument, law of the hammer, Maslow's hammer, or golden hammer[a] is a cognitive bias that involves an over-reliance on a familiar tool. Abraham Maslow wrote in 1966, "If the only tool you have is a hammer, it is tempting to treat everything as if it were a nail."

The concept is attributed both to Maslow and to Abraham Kaplan, although the hammer and nail line may not be original to either of them.

Good Morning.

We see it time and time again. With just a little thought, I'm sure most of us could name an international problem that was made worse by the appearance of the United States of America.

Our hammer dates back to August 6 and 9, 1945. WWII was won with the biggest hammer of them all, and all that power went directly to our heads. Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely, after all.

While the powers-that-be in Washington are always looking for that next nail, what does it mean for the rest of the world?

This is happening in the South China Sea right now.

MANILA, Philippines — Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannons at two Philippine patrol vessels Tuesday near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, damaging both in the latest flare-up in an increasingly tense territorial conflict.

There were no immediate reports of injuries in the incident off Scarborough Shoal, one of two hotly disputed areas where confrontations between China and the Philippines have flared on and off since last year.

A Philippine coast guard ship and an accompanying fisheries vessel were patrolling the waters off Scarborough Shoal when four Chinese coast guard ships, backed by six suspected militia ships, executed dangerous blocking maneuvers, Philippine coast guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela said.

A Chinese coast guard ship used a water cannon against the fisheries vessel, the BRP Bankaw, and two other Chinese coast guard ships hit the Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, simultaneously from both sides, damaging part of its deck railing and a canopy, Tarriela added.

“China's coast guard and maritime militia vessels harassed, blocked and rammed vessels of the Philippine coast guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources,” a Philippine government task force dealing with the territorial disputes said.

China, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines have been fighting over worthless tips of land sticking above the ocean for decades. Because whoever controls those points gains the sea rights for fishing, drilling, mining, and whatever else anyone can think of.

But on the other hand, maybe China is reacting to this?

ITBAYAT, Philippines — U.S. Marines and their Filipino counterparts darted out of Black Hawk helicopters during combat drills Monday in the Philippines’ northernmost island town, along the strategic Bashi Channel off southern Taiwan.

The show of allied battle readiness in Itbayat in Batanes province is part of annual military exercises that started last month, dubbed Balikatan, Tagalog for “shoulder-to-shoulder,” and involving more than 16,000 American and Philippine military personnel.

This year's exercises by the longtime treaty allies — the largest yet — are meant to deter possible aggression. They come against the backdrop of China’s increasingly assertive actions in the disputed South China Sea, where Chinese and Philippine coast guards and accompanying ships have had several increasingly tense faceoffs since last year.

More than 250 French and Australian forces are also participating, along with observers from several allied and security partner nations, led by Japan and European nations. The drills, which began April 22, end later this week.

In Monday's mock battle scenario, American and Filipino forces took positions at the airfield, ringed by low-lying hills, as three Army CH-47 Chinook helicopters landed to deliver combat supplies.

Marine 1st Lt. Annie Pentaleri said there would also be aerial combat reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance drills in the far-flung region. The Associated Press was among a small group of journalists invited to attend the maneuvers.

"We are absolutely battle-ready and that’s what we train for day in and day out,” Marine Maj. Robert Patterson said. “It’s important to enhance inter-operability with our Filipino counterparts.”

Washington and Manila say the drills are not directed at any country and are crucial for improving the response to emergencies in the Philippines, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.

However, this year's drills focus on territorial defense and are being staged mainly in two of the most sensitive fault lines in the regional rivalry between China and the United States: the disputed South China Sea and the Bashi Channel.

Sounds like a nail to me. But of course nothing happens in Southeast Asia without this guy taking notice and governing himself accordingly.

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised salvo launches of the country’s “super-large” multiple rocket launchers that simulated a nuclear counterattack against enemy targets, state media said Tuesday, adding to tests and threats that have raised tensions in the region.

The report by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency came a day after the South Korean and Japanese militaries detected the North firing what they suspected were multiple short-range ballistic missiles from a region near its capital, Pyongyang, toward its eastern seas.

Analysts say North Korea’s large-sized artillery rockets blur the boundary between artillery systems and ballistic missiles because they can create their own thrust and are guided during delivery. The North has described some of these systems, including the 600mm multiple rocket launchers that were tested Monday, as capable of delivering tactical nuclear warheads.

KCNA said Monday’s launches represented the first demonstration of the country’s nuclear-weapons management and control system called “Haekbangashoe,” or “nuclear trigger.” The report described the drill as aimed at demonstrating the strength and diverse attack means of North Korea’s nuclear forces amid deepening tensions with the United States and South Korea, which it portrayed as “warmongers” raising tensions in the region with their combined military exercises.

State media photos showed at least four rockets being fired from launch vehicles as Kim watched from an observation post. It said the rockets flew 352 kilometers (218 miles) before accurately hitting an island target and that the drill verified the reliability of the “system of command, management, control and operation of the whole nuclear force.”

Hammers and nails, all. What is really scary is who is involved this time. During the Cold War, we made use of a ludicrous, yet effective, nuclear theory called "Mutually Assured Destruction".

Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. It is based on the theory of rational deterrence, which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons. The strategy is a form of Nash equilibrium in which, once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm.

When it was us and the Russians, even though it was a scary thing, there was a certain kind of respect, perhaps learned the hard way. Kennedy and Kruschev were probably scared shitless about how close we came to doing the deed during that October of 1962. I can't say the same for China, or certainly not North Korea. At least such an event will likely result in very few veterans of the conflict, or perhaps even very few survivors.

Only time will tell.

2 comments (Latest Comment: 05/07/2024 14:39:33 by Raine)
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