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Iowa Declares Ennui the Real Winner
Author: BobR    Date: 01/04/2012 13:41:55


it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
- from "Macbeth" by William Shakespeare


After all the debates and political ads and discussions and talking heads pontificating, the first shot across the bow of the political flotilla was fired last night. The Iowa caucus ushered in the beginning of the primaries for the 2012 election. Despite threats by some firebaggers dissatisfied lefties, President Barack Obama won the Democratic caucus. You wouldn't know there was a Democratic caucus, since 100% of the attention was on the Republican caucus results.

The Santorum jokes were flying fast and furious on Twitter as he kept "surging from behind" into a "three-way" with Romney and Ron Paul. Eventually, Romney came out on top as Santorum squeezed into a tight number two position.

Okay, I'll stop.

Ultimately, Romney "won" by eight votes. With all the breathless second-guessing and analysis of every district in the state, you'd think this was the Most Important Thing Ever in this 2012 race. Is it? Iowa is notoriously bad at predicting the eventual winner of the party nomination, and equally bad at predicting the final winner in November.

It's not even significant in the overall delegate count required to win. The winner will need 1145 delegates (out of 2286) and Iowa provides 28.

I think the bigger story here is the percentages. Romney essentially won with 25% of the vote (30,015 votes). Only one fourth of the people casting ballots wanted him to win. Is that something to get excited about? There's also the total number of voters to consider: Approximately 123K votes were cast, and there are 640K registered Republicans in the state:
The most ominous sign for the GOP might be the low turnout in Iowa after the Tea Party–driven enthusiasms of 2010. Roughly 123,000 of 640,000 registered Republicans in the state turned out to vote, along the lines of 2008, when dueling Democrats absorbed most of the electoral energy.

The biggest news was the biggest upset: Rick Santorum playing the role of Mike Huckabee [ed: remember him?] in the Iowa caucus, gaining late-breaking support from social conservatives and widespread desire for a conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.

So doing the math, less than 20% of registered Republicans were inspired to even show up and cast a vote, in an election year where the Republican mantra is "we must replace Obama". Considering that Romney won with 25% of the 20% of registered Republican voters in the state, that means that less than 5% of Registered Republicans in the state voted for Romney.

I have to ask: is that a win worth celebrating? It's like celebrating victory in a race by being first off the starting line before any of the racers even enter the first turn.

The spin is that this is all about momentum going into the other primaries. Santorum is back on top, Newt is back down, Perry is considering dropping out, Bachmann is still limping along, and Ron Paul doubled his usual 10% of supporters to nearly 20% (of the 20% that showed up). Huntsman was barely a blip.

There are 3 more primaries this month, so we'll see how this progresses, but it will be interesting to measure the Republican primary voter enthusiasm by the percentage of registered voters (in closed primary states) that actually show up. If Iowa is any indication, the collective yawn of the voters is the real story here.
 

83 comments (Latest Comment: 01/05/2012 02:41:08 by TriSec)
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Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 13:55:54
So, Bob are you saying that the speculation that Santorum coming from behind is a bit premature?

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 14:01:28
Morning


Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 14:12:20
Morning, folks.

Just an observation on Iowa….Neither Governor Romney nor Senator Santorum won or placed yesterday, however Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum did. The improper use of former titles does indeed annoy me. (I’ll yield to still calling a former President “President”, though. There is a measure of respect for the office intended there.)

And sticking deeper and deeper into my craw is “taking our country back”, like Mr. Santorum wants to do. Back to what? Bush era policies? Then you’re a freakin’ idiot, aren’t you? At least Mr. Romney’s call to get America “back on track” suggests that he thinks we’re going in the wrong direction and might have different ideas about how to get there.

Grunt.


Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 14:12:26
As the super-spay Sterling Archer would say, "phrasing!" Lets be less smirking about Man on Dog mmkay?

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 14:16:24
LL Bean Boot gets Kick - Look what I found on the Yahoo

Comment by velveeta jones on 01/04/2012 14:18:47
Quote by wickedpam:
LL Bean Boot gets Kick - Look what I found on the Yahoo

Ew! I'm in style! :D

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 14:23:19
Quote by velveeta jones:
Quote by wickedpam:
LL Bean Boot gets Kick - Look what I found on the Yahoo

Ew! I'm in style! :D



always wanted to hang with the cool kids

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 14:28:44
good morning!


Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 14:29:14
Heh. Peak season was hell - we sold out of nearly everything. Production is not keeping up with demand, and a number of the styles are backordered into March already.

I am happy that the production is staying in Maine; it would have been easy to offshore it at this point. ("Wicked Good" shearling slippers were sent to China last year, and immediately went UP by $20. Thought that was supposed to make things cheaper?)

But we've said all along, when the Bean Boot is made in China, the chain will fold.



Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 14:38:57
I was taught that former governors and sentators get the courtesy title. I will defere to protocal driod from Waltham on the matter though.

Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 14:39:03
Oh, the story gets one detail wrong. The Bean Boot is the "mother product", and when the first 100 were delivered, there was a problem with the uppers - the leather separated from the rubber bottom.

Leon offered his customers a replacement at no cost, or a refund...and he replaced all of those boots with a redesigned one, and gained 100 loyal customers out of it.

Thus the now famed "LL Bean Guarantee", which I won't go into detail here.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 14:41:58
I am going to ask you to watch this and THEN click the link to the story that accompanies it.



Please watch this, and please tell me what you take away from this.

Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 14:43:56
I went digging. My sincerest apologies to Senator Santorum. No apology is necessary to Mr. Romney.


Continued use of a title depends on the office: Offices of which there is only one at a time (e.g., President, Speaker, Governor, or Mayor) are only officially used by the current office holder. For example, The 34th President of the United States, Dwight Eisenhower reverted to his prior rank "General Eisenhower" in retirement.

Titles for offices of which there are many concurrent office holders (e.g., Ambassador, Senator, Judge, Professor or military ranks, especially Colonel and above) are retained for life: A retired US Army general is addressed as "General (Name)" officially and socially for the rest of his or her life.


Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 14:54:01
Quote by TriSec:
I went digging. My sincerest apologies to Senator Santorum. No apology is necessary to Mr. Romney.


Continued use of a title depends on the office: Offices of which there is only one at a time (e.g., President, Speaker, Governor, or Mayor) are only officially used by the current office holder. For example, The 34th President of the United States, Dwight Eisenhower reverted to his prior rank "General Eisenhower" in retirement.

Titles for offices of which there are many concurrent office holders (e.g., Ambassador, Senator, Judge, Professor or military ranks, especially Colonel and above) are retained for life: A retired US Army general is addressed as "General (Name)" officially and socially for the rest of his or her life.



Thanks for that, C3P0

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 14:54:26
Quote by Raine:
I am going to ask you to watch this and THEN click the link to the story that accompanies it.



Please watch this, and please tell me what you take away from this.
ok, so here is the link.


Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 14:56:08
I kid because I care, Herr TriSec.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 14:56:59
And prior to that video, this exchange happened:



Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:10:11
So, did video kill the blog?

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 15:15:33
Quote by Raine:
So, did video kill the blog?



No I was waiting to see if there was something else


Shultz does seem to be on the Santorum train
(oh I did love the "can you believe this" look Sharpton threw at the camera)

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:16:11
Woohoo! It was reported yesterday (By WSJ) that this may happen -- now the AP is reporting it as well.
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a defiant display of executive power, President Barack Obama on Wednesday will buck GOP opposition and name Richard Cordray as the nation's chief consumer watchdog even though the Senate contends the move is inappropriate, senior administration officials told The Associated Press


Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 15:17:39
Quote by Mondobubba:
I kid because I care, Herr TriSec.


Now, now. I'm a stickler for etiquette and protocol. No offense taken.



Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:17:46
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
So, did video kill the blog?



No I was waiting to see if there was something else


Shultz does seem to be on the Santorum train
(oh I did love the "can you believe this" look Sharpton threw at the camera)
well I was looking to see what opinions were. Evidently, Mr Shults didn't like that I said:
Basically @WeGotEd has endorsed Santorum for the GOP nominee.
on twitter.

He REALLY didn't like it.


Comment by BobR on 01/04/2012 15:18:31
Quote by Raine:
Woohoo! It was reported yesterday (By WSJ) that this may happen -- now the AP is reporting it as well.
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a defiant display of executive power, President Barack Obama on Wednesday will buck GOP opposition and name Richard Cordray as the nation's chief consumer watchdog even though the Senate contends the move is inappropriate, senior administration officials told The Associated Press



Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:20:15
Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 15:20:33
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
So, did video kill the blog?



No I was waiting to see if there was something else


Shultz does seem to be on the Santorum train
(oh I did love the "can you believe this" look Sharpton threw at the camera)
well I was looking to see what opinions were. Evidently, Mr Shults didn't like that I said:
Basically @WeGotEd has endorsed Santorum for the GOP nominee.
on twitter.

He REALLY didn't like it.



or the assistant who runs his twitter didn't like it - what was the reply?

Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 15:25:09
Quote by TriSec:
Quote by Mondobubba:
I kid because I care, Herr TriSec.


Now, now. I'm a stickler for etiquette and protocol. No offense taken.




Which does not go unnoticed, good sir. I have two other friends who are protocol droids. The three of you do come in very handy. You are my flag ettiquette go-to guy.

Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 15:27:53
Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:29:01
here was the reply Mala.




Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:30:01
I have to go find that link where he told people to stay home and not vote in 2010. Evidently according to @WeGotEd, "That's Bull"

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 15:36:23
Looks like they are looking for ways to shut down Occupy DC - now they have rats - says Channel 9 on FB

Channel 9 page on FB

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:36:26
Quote by Raine:
I have to go find that link where he told people to stay home and not vote in 2010. Evidently according to @WeGotEd, "That's Bull"

yup. I remember writing about that last August. my apologies that this is from RadioEqualizer, but this is the audio I could find.




Comment by Scoopster on 01/04/2012 15:40:13
Mornin' all..

We have an overabundance of bagels and scones in the office today since EVERYONE brought some of each!

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 15:40:45
Quote by Raine:
here was the reply Mala.





wow - he (or the assistant) doesn't know how to twitter fight - that's sad, he didn't address the issues you were hitting and just saying "you don't get it"

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:43:22
I am pretty sure that Exchange was him. Ed has a tendancy to use the phrase: That's bull

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 15:57:22
Quote by Raine:
I am pretty sure that Exchange was him. Ed has a tendancy to use the phrase: That's bull



good come back

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 15:59:32
Quote by wickedpam:
(oh I did love the "can you believe this" look Sharpton threw at the camera)
I need a screen shot of that look. I LMAO last night when I saw it.


Comment by Scoopster on 01/04/2012 16:08:23
Dawwwwwww

http://chzgifs.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/funny-gifs-striking-the-air.gif


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 16:24:40
It blows me away that Bachmann was ever a frontrunner for the nomination.

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 16:25:01
Quote by Scoopster:
Dawwwwwww

http://chzgifs.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/funny-gifs-striking-the-air.gif



awww

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 16:44:49
https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/373902_2910820328043_1186660314_33162864_585635299_n.jpg


Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 16:46:37
So, with Romney winning by a whopping 8 votes, NH should be a "gimme". If he takes SC after that, I'd say Rom-mentum would be his and it's all over at that point.

OTOH, if he can't win NH (which no MA presidential candidate has ever lost), then we'll see.


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 16:49:40
If ANYONE can get that shot of Al Sharpton w/o the mediaite arrow thingy I would REALLY appreciate it.

I LOVED that look!

Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 16:50:06
I don't watch Fox locally....I had NECN on this morning instead of one of the Boston city channels, and the only ad I saw was indeed for Mr. Romney. (His own, not a PAC ad.)

I think I'm watching the wrong channels, though.



Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 16:51:17
Quote by TriSec:
So, with Romney winning by a whopping 8 votes, NH should be a "gimme". If he takes SC after that, I'd say Rom-mentum would be his and it's all over at that point.

OTOH, if he can't win NH (which no MA presidential candidate has ever lost), then we'll see.
I fully expect a Santormentum from the media before NH. This race is Romeny's to lose. Santorum has gotten a taste of almost winning.


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:05:56
Shorter Rick Perry statement (on not leaving the campaign)

What? Over? Did you say over? Nothings over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed The Alamo? Hell no!


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:09:09
Oh boy. Why am I not surprised about a certain talk show host coming out of the gate calling people stupid for not agreeing with him?


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:11:59
Wow. I find it incredible how insulting a certain talk show host can be to his listeners.


Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:13:43
And Mala, Said show host confirmed it was he who was tweeting last night.

Comment by Scoopster on 01/04/2012 17:18:06
@GovernorPerry: And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!



Comment by livingonli on 01/04/2012 17:22:06
Good day everyone. If you were up really late, you could have seen Sam Seder on with Melissa-Harris Perry and Chris Hayes which give the insomniacs and night-owls something. I guess we can get more mileage out of those Santorum jokes.

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 17:25:39
Quote by Raine:
And Mala, Said show host confirmed it was he who was tweeting last night.



and I thought he had debate skills (even though he bugs the snot out of me)

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:38:16
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
And Mala, Said show host confirmed it was he who was tweeting last night.



and I thought he had debate skills (even though he bugs the snot out of me)

He yells.



Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:38:54
Quote by livingonli:
Good day everyone. If you were up really late, you could have seen Sam Seder on with Melissa-Harris Perry and Chris Hayes which give the insomniacs and night-owls something. I guess we can get more mileage out of those Santorum jokes.
I wish I could have been able to watch that.


Comment by BobR on 01/04/2012 17:39:27
Considering all the hate mail the President gets, it's good to send some encouragement when due. worth a minute of your time

I added:
While you're at it - feel free to fill a few more appointments that the Republicans in Congress have felt the need to block. We need a government that functions, and anything you can do to help that along is appreciated.

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 17:40:16
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
And Mala, Said show host confirmed it was he who was tweeting last night.



and I thought he had debate skills (even though he bugs the snot out of me)

He yells.




that he does

Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 17:40:17
If anyone wants to join my workshop on selectively following only the parts of the Bible that you like, or are relevant to your political position, the only pre-requisite is reading Surah 2-85:


So do you believe in part of the Scripture and disbelieve in part? Then what is the recompense for those who do that among you except disgrace in worldly life; and on the Day of Resurrection they will be sent back to the severest of punishment. And Allah is not unaware of what you do.


Of course, lightning doesn't strike far from the tree; I just celebrated Christ's birthday by eating pork and drinking heavily. Fine things for a borderline Muslim to do.



Comment by BobR on 01/04/2012 17:40:38
Quote by Scoopster:
@GovernorPerry: And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!


I guess he was so buzzed in NH, he forgot all about it

Comment by Will in Chicago on 01/04/2012 17:53:53
Hello, bloggers!!

BobR, thanks for an interesting blog. What is curious for the GOP is that for all the talk of wanting to oust Obama from the White House, there was a relatively small turnout in Iowa.

I expect there to be several more controversies in the campaign. As for Ed Schultz, I think that addressing O'Donnell's points would have helped. Essentially, all Santorum's industrial plan does is give the corporations a tax holiday.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 17:57:20
Thank you Bobber for capturing this :
https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/394097_2911080054536_1186660314_33163033_1699409813_n.jpg


This is my new go to picture when just isn't good enough.

Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 18:18:16
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 18:23:20
Quote by Mondobubba:
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Sounds like you may have had an intriguing conversation.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 18:34:44
POTUS kicking ass and taking names at Whitehouse.gov/live


He just recess appointed him at a LIVE appearance in Cincinnati!!!

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 18:43:06
Sorry, but I just gotta use this one:






Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 18:47:39
So when you hear people bitching about recess appointments, show them this:
https://motherjones.com/files/images/recess.jpg
Story and link.

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 18:58:47
Quote by Raine:
POTUS kicking ass and taking names at Whitehouse.gov/live


He just recess appointed him at a LIVE appearance in Cincinnati!!!



ah dang it! I missed it!

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 19:12:00
Karl Frisch is filling in the last hour of Thom today!

Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 19:43:28
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Sounds like you may have had an intriguing conversation.



Not yet. Just keeping it in mind. Since I am reading this book on lyching, there is lots of discussion about "restoring the honor Southern womanhood from those over sexed negroes." as a justification for lynching.

Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 20:00:28
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Sounds like you may have had an intriguing conversation.



Not yet. Just keeping it in mind. Since I am reading this book on lyching, there is lots of discussion about "restoring the honor Southern womanhood from those over sexed negroes." as a justification for lynching.



I swear you make me feel like the kid in the corner with the Josie and the Pussycats comics

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:11:26
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Sounds like you may have had an intriguing conversation.



Not yet. Just keeping it in mind. Since I am reading this book on lyching, there is lots of discussion about "restoring the honor Southern womanhood from those over sexed negroes." as a justification for lynching.
ahhh.



Comment by TriSec on 01/04/2012 20:16:50
Quote by wickedpam:

I swear you make me feel like the kid in the corner with the Josie and the Pussycats comics


Trade you a Batman for it.




Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 20:25:10
Quote by TriSec:
Quote by wickedpam:

I swear you make me feel like the kid in the corner with the Josie and the Pussycats comics


Trade you a Batman for it.





when I'm done - Melody just trip and fell pushing Josie into Allen - wonder what Alexandra is gonna do

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:25:15
And while he's at it.... ANOTHER Appointment. This time to the NLRB


Comment by Scoopster on 01/04/2012 20:41:58
Quote by Raine:
And while he's at it.... ANOTHER Appointment. This time to the NLRB

I just saw this too.. EXCELLENT news!

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:43:27
Once again, I say I love the WaPo gossip page. This is seemingly said without irony.

GOP primary divides Washington socialites


Comment by wickedpam on 01/04/2012 20:50:59
Quote by Raine:
Once again, I say I love the WaPo gossip page. This is seemingly said without irony.

GOP primary divides Washington socialites



remind me never to go to Oursiman Honda

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:54:12
Raul Rieckoff just said this was a good piece.

I agree to a certain extent, but I still have a problem with an active military member doing what happened last night. HE should not have worn that Uniform.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:54:51
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
Once again, I say I love the WaPo gossip page. This is seemingly said without irony.

GOP primary divides Washington socialites



remind me never to go to Oursiman Honda
aha....

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:55:21
Quote by Scoopster:
Quote by Raine:
And while he's at it.... ANOTHER Appointment. This time to the NLRB

I just saw this too.. EXCELLENT news!






Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 20:59:47
Quote by Raine:
Raul Rieckoff just said this was a good piece.

I agree to a certain extent, but I still have a problem with an active military member doing what happened last night. HE should not have worn that Uniform.

http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/screen-shot-2012-01-04-at-1-00-48-pm.png?w=527&h=68
for more background, link is here.

Comment by Mondobubba on 01/04/2012 21:16:39
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
So, next time you get into a debate with some frothing islamaphobic asshat who goes on about honor killing and its barbarity, just mention lynching in the South.

Sounds like you may have had an intriguing conversation.



Not yet. Just keeping it in mind. Since I am reading this book on lyching, there is lots of discussion about "restoring the honor Southern womanhood from those over sexed negroes." as a justification for lynching.



I swear you make me feel like the kid in the corner with the Josie and the Pussycats comics



I read a lot. What I read is very wide ranging as well.

Comment by Raine on 01/04/2012 21:59:35
off to a meeting... see's y'all later!

Comment by Will in Chicago on 01/04/2012 23:17:14
Here is a message from Danielle, the LeftNeckChick?

Three great guest will be joining us on the very first episode of "TalkingLeft"! Jacob Dean of Filter Free Radio, Nicole Belle of Crooks and Liars, and Brad Friedman of The BRAD BLOG will be there to help us celebrate the new show! Live 7-10pm ET at http://ustream.tv/channel/radio-or-not


Comment by TriSec on 01/05/2012 02:41:08
Well, I just signed up for the Warren campaign. I phone-banked for Obama last time around, maybe they can use me.