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Crisis Averted (sort of)
Author: BobR
Date: 01/02/2013 13:39:25
It appears the crisis has been averted. Well - half the crisis anyway... the other half has been delayed for two months, so we'll get another two months of dickering and posturing before yet another 11th hour deal. At 2:00 AM on New Years Day, the Senate passed a bill to avert the fiscal cliff. It passed with only 8 votes opposing. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) had previously punted on his responsibility to get anything done when he couldn't even get a watered down "Plan B" passed by his own party. He left town saying it was up to the Senate Dems and the president to come up with a deal, and if they did, he'd bring it up for a vote.
From a political perspective, those words came back to bite him. The president and the Senate DID come up with a plan, one that was far more progressive than his "Plan B". It contained a lot of good stuff:
From a revenue perspective, the only real compromises on the president's part were increasing the cut-off income level from $250k/yr to $400k/yr ($450k for families), and letting the temporary Social Security tax holiday expire. That last one means everyone will see their taxes go up 2% in the coming year. For someone making $50k/yr, that amounts to $1000, or $83/month. That will hurt a little, but won't be as devastating as doing nothing would have been.
It also kicks the can containing spending cuts two months down the road.
Republicans in the House were divided, and spent most of the day debating whether to amend the bill. Ultimately - like the "Plan B" idea - they could not muster enough votes amongst themselves to move forward on amendments. At about 11:00, they put the original unamended bill up for a vote, and it passed with most Democrats and 87 Republicans voting for it (here's the roll call). Sadly, my own very liberal House Rep voted against, because (as he tweeted last night) "I voted no on #fiscalcliff bill. Leaves US with 3 more 'fiscal cliffs' - all would put nearly 40% of Northern Va economy on chopping block". Doing nothing would do the same thing, which is the inverse of something Republicans failed to grasp, which is that voting no on tax increases means taxes go up anyway. I am a bit disappointed in him.
As expected, heads in freeperland are exploding. Also expected are the whiners on the left who still consider this "caving". The Dems in the House who voted against the bill mostly did so because they felt it was missing too many vital components. Republicans voted against it because they're against anything the president is in favor of. House majority leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) voted against the bill; Boehner voted for it, as did failed veep candidate Paul Ryan (R-WI). That should make for an interesting dynamic come Jan 03 when the new House reconvenes and has their biennial election for House Speaker. Meanwhile, President Obama - who had to cut short his Christmas vacation to come back to DC to babysit this process, is reuniting with his family in Hawaii.
Some Republicans are trying to convince themselves that since this occurred after midnight on Dec 31, these aren't tax increases at all. They argue that the country did go over the fiscal cliff, and thus - these are actually tax cuts. Grover "Tax Pledge" Norquist himself is trying to make that point. To this, I say - I agree.
Good-bye Bush Tax Cuts.
Hello Obama Tax Cuts.
And finally, a big thank-you to Republicans who painted themselves into a corner and let the clock run out. Not only did the president get nearly all of what he wanted, he also gets the credit, and you get the blame.
Checkmate.
From a political perspective, those words came back to bite him. The president and the Senate DID come up with a plan, one that was far more progressive than his "Plan B". It contained a lot of good stuff:
- Unemployment benefits are extended for an additional year benefiting approximately 2 million out of work Americans.
- Tax credits for college tuition, created by the 2009 stimulus package, are extended for five year, benefiting some 25 million low income families.
- The “doctor fix” is included meaning that Medicare providers will not face a serious cut in pay.
- The Alternative Minimum Tax problem is permanently fixed removing a potential tax danger for middle class families.
- A number of existing business tax benefits will remain in place for another year, including renewable energy tax credit which is extended for an additional year.
- The $900 per year salary raise recently signed into existence by President Obama for members of Congress is revoked.
From a revenue perspective, the only real compromises on the president's part were increasing the cut-off income level from $250k/yr to $400k/yr ($450k for families), and letting the temporary Social Security tax holiday expire. That last one means everyone will see their taxes go up 2% in the coming year. For someone making $50k/yr, that amounts to $1000, or $83/month. That will hurt a little, but won't be as devastating as doing nothing would have been.
It also kicks the can containing spending cuts two months down the road.
Republicans in the House were divided, and spent most of the day debating whether to amend the bill. Ultimately - like the "Plan B" idea - they could not muster enough votes amongst themselves to move forward on amendments. At about 11:00, they put the original unamended bill up for a vote, and it passed with most Democrats and 87 Republicans voting for it (here's the roll call). Sadly, my own very liberal House Rep voted against, because (as he tweeted last night) "I voted no on #fiscalcliff bill. Leaves US with 3 more 'fiscal cliffs' - all would put nearly 40% of Northern Va economy on chopping block". Doing nothing would do the same thing, which is the inverse of something Republicans failed to grasp, which is that voting no on tax increases means taxes go up anyway. I am a bit disappointed in him.
As expected, heads in freeperland are exploding. Also expected are the whiners on the left who still consider this "caving". The Dems in the House who voted against the bill mostly did so because they felt it was missing too many vital components. Republicans voted against it because they're against anything the president is in favor of. House majority leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) voted against the bill; Boehner voted for it, as did failed veep candidate Paul Ryan (R-WI). That should make for an interesting dynamic come Jan 03 when the new House reconvenes and has their biennial election for House Speaker. Meanwhile, President Obama - who had to cut short his Christmas vacation to come back to DC to babysit this process, is reuniting with his family in Hawaii.
Some Republicans are trying to convince themselves that since this occurred after midnight on Dec 31, these aren't tax increases at all. They argue that the country did go over the fiscal cliff, and thus - these are actually tax cuts. Grover "Tax Pledge" Norquist himself is trying to make that point. To this, I say - I agree.
Good-bye Bush Tax Cuts.
Hello Obama Tax Cuts.
And finally, a big thank-you to Republicans who painted themselves into a corner and let the clock run out. Not only did the president get nearly all of what he wanted, he also gets the credit, and you get the blame.
Checkmate.
Comments:
Order comments Newest to Oldest Refresh Comments
Comment by 
Raine on 01/02/2013 13:45:58
good morning!
I am absolutely amazed at how this all came down.
Raine on 01/02/2013 13:45:58
good morning! I am absolutely amazed at how this all came down.
Comment by 
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 13:53:16
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 13:53:16
Great blog bobber. One small thing, you said semi-annual. This would mean every six months. What I think you meant was bi-annual meaning every two years. 
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 14:07:53
Raine on 01/02/2013 14:07:53
Boner class act, all the way... 
'Go cheney yourself' is now old school, now we say Go Boner yourself!
'Go cheney yourself' is now old school, now we say Go Boner yourself!
Comment by 
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 14:10:50
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 14:10:50
Morning 
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 14:12:32
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 14:12:32
I think I have what Chris has - just can't shake this freaking cold!
Comment by 
BobR on 01/02/2013 14:14:20
actually - bi-annual is the same as semi-annual. What I should have written was biennial.
BobR on 01/02/2013 14:14:20
Quote by Mondobubba:
Great blog bobber. One small thing, you said semi-annual. This would mean every six months. What I think you meant was bi-annual meaning every two years.
actually - bi-annual is the same as semi-annual. What I should have written was biennial.
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:16:01
Even better
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:16:01
Quote by BobR:Quote by Mondobubba:
Great blog bobber. One small thing, you said semi-annual. This would mean every six months. What I think you meant was bi-annual meaning every two years.
actually - bi-annual is the same as semi-annual. What I should have written was biennial.
Even better
Comment by BobR on 01/02/2013 14:19:10
Blog corrected.
BobR on 01/02/2013 14:19:10
Quote by Mondobubba:Quote by BobR:Quote by Mondobubba:
Great blog bobber. One small thing, you said semi-annual. This would mean every six months. What I think you meant was bi-annual meaning every two years.
actually - bi-annual is the same as semi-annual. What I should have written was biennial.
Even better
Blog corrected.
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:20:55
This is why EASL is hard.
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:20:55
Quote by BobR:Quote by Mondobubba:
Great blog bobber. One small thing, you said semi-annual. This would mean every six months. What I think you meant was bi-annual meaning every two years.
actually - bi-annual is the same as semi-annual. What I should have written was biennial.
This is why EASL is hard.
Comment by 
TriSec on 01/02/2013 14:22:11
TriSec on 01/02/2013 14:22:11
Morning, comrades.
Ah, a new 2013. Still pondering what a difference a year makes.
Ah, a new 2013. Still pondering what a difference a year makes.
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 14:38:49
Raine on 01/02/2013 14:38:49
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 14:51:29
TriSec on 01/02/2013 14:51:29
In av-dork news, I noticed yesterday whilst mixing cake batter with my stand mixer that when set on '6', the batter makes a "whup-whup-whup" sound not unlike the Bell UH-1 Iroquois. (That's a Huey Helicopter to you.)
Clearly, I need help.
Clearly, I need help.
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:58:13
"Seek therapy." Ellis Carver to Thomas Hauk, episode 1, season 3 "The Wire."
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 14:58:13
Quote by TriSec:
In av-dork news, I noticed yesterday whilst mixing cake batter with my stand mixer that when set on '6', the batter makes a "whup-whup-whup" sound not unlike the Bell UH-1 Iroquois. (That's a Huey Helicopter to you.)
Clearly, I need help.
"Seek therapy." Ellis Carver to Thomas Hauk, episode 1, season 3 "The Wire."
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:21:18
TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:21:18
I think any Democratic Congressman going on Fox should just do the "Swinging the Alphabet" song for the Fox Hosts.
"Fox News Hosts are a dope".
(And after stating that "You Nazty Spy" was rarely shown on the TV38 marathon, they did show it this year. Or was it last year?)
"Fox News Hosts are a dope".
(And after stating that "You Nazty Spy" was rarely shown on the TV38 marathon, they did show it this year. Or was it last year?)
Comment by 
clintster on 01/02/2013 15:21:28
clintster on 01/02/2013 15:21:28
Looking at Yahoo just now, the main story on their from page was "Fiscal Cliff Disaster Averted at 11th Hour"
I have the urge to correct them "Actually, it was about 12:06, and only because the House GOP acted like a bunch of spoiled children."
I have the urge to correct them "Actually, it was about 12:06, and only because the House GOP acted like a bunch of spoiled children."
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:26:45
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:26:45
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister 
Comment by BobR on 01/02/2013 15:28:16
It was more like the 13th hour
BobR on 01/02/2013 15:28:16
Quote by clintster:
Looking at Yahoo just now, the main story on their from page was "Fiscal Cliff Disaster Averted at 11th Hour"
I have the urge to correct them "Actually, it was about 12:06, and only because the House GOP acted like a bunch of spoiled children."
It was more like the 13th hour
Comment by BobR on 01/02/2013 15:29:01
BobR on 01/02/2013 15:29:01
Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:35:18
Thanks. We'd just found out she had Alzheimer's, she was 93 and looked great - she could have passed for someone in her 60's! Have some pretty good memories of going to her house and playing in the back yard on their boat trailer. And also going to the lake and getting to drive the boat, very fast, at age 5
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:35:18
Quote by BobR:Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Thanks. We'd just found out she had Alzheimer's, she was 93 and looked great - she could have passed for someone in her 60's! Have some pretty good memories of going to her house and playing in the back yard on their boat trailer. And also going to the lake and getting to drive the boat, very fast, at age 5
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:36:21
TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:36:21
So, in chemo news, my LAST TREATMENT is coming up next Tuesday. (with pump return on 01/10)
The last few cycles since I ditched the Oxalaplatin (aka "Satan's Drool"), the 5FU has decided to kick my ass. And now I hear the flu is rampaging through the store - I have to be careful.
"Neuropathy - not all it's cracked up to be!" (drops priceless vase, trips over own feet.)
The last few cycles since I ditched the Oxalaplatin (aka "Satan's Drool"), the 5FU has decided to kick my ass. And now I hear the flu is rampaging through the store - I have to be careful.
"Neuropathy - not all it's cracked up to be!" (drops priceless vase, trips over own feet.)
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 15:37:48
I'm sorry, Mala.
Raine on 01/02/2013 15:37:48
Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:39:21
Thanks
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:39:21
Quote by Raine:I'm sorry, Mala.Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Thanks
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 15:40:30
Math is hard.
Raine on 01/02/2013 15:40:30
Quote by BobR:Quote by clintster:
Looking at Yahoo just now, the main story on their from page was "Fiscal Cliff Disaster Averted at 11th Hour"
I have the urge to correct them "Actually, it was about 12:06, and only because the House GOP acted like a bunch of spoiled children."
It was more like the 13th hour
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:44:26
Yay! Last Treatment!
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:44:26
Quote by TriSec:
So, in chemo news, my LAST TREATMENT is coming up next Tuesday. (with pump return on 01/10)
The last few cycles since I ditched the Oxalaplatin (aka "Satan's Drool"), the 5FU has decided to kick my ass. And now I hear the flu is rampaging through the store - I have to be careful.
"Neuropathy - not all it's cracked up to be!" (drops priceless vase, trips over own feet.)
Yay! Last Treatment!
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:45:25
TriSec on 01/02/2013 15:45:25
And now listening to KofB. The only way to start a new year.
(Say, we need a piano player emoticon.)
(Say, we need a piano player emoticon.)
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 15:53:18
Well, poop!
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 15:53:18
Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Well, poop!
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 15:54:01
Will there be a martini and a stogie to celebrate this event?
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 15:54:01
Quote by TriSec:
So, in chemo news, my LAST TREATMENT is coming up next Tuesday. (with pump return on 01/10)
The last few cycles since I ditched the Oxalaplatin (aka "Satan's Drool"), the 5FU has decided to kick my ass. And now I hear the flu is rampaging through the store - I have to be careful.
"Neuropathy - not all it's cracked up to be!" (drops priceless vase, trips over own feet.)
Will there be a martini and a stogie to celebrate this event?
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 15:54:47
I'm on it.
Raine on 01/02/2013 15:54:47
Quote by TriSec:
And now listening to KofB. The only way to start a new year.
(Say, we need a piano player emoticon.)
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:55:31
I'm calling it - 2012 kinda sucked in general
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 15:55:31
Quote by Mondobubba:Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Well, poop!
I'm calling it - 2012 kinda sucked in general
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 15:57:43
Raine on 01/02/2013 15:57:43
How is this? 
or this?
or this?
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 15:58:40
Raine on 01/02/2013 15:58:40
I kinda like the animated one.
piano and piano2 ?
piano and piano2 ?
Comment by BobR on 01/02/2013 16:00:09
I think the 2nd one is more attractive, but it seems to have a white background and it's not animated like our other musical emoticons, so I am going to have to go with the 1st one.
BobR on 01/02/2013 16:00:09
Quote by Raine:
I kinda like the animated one.
piano and piano2 ?
I think the 2nd one is more attractive, but it seems to have a white background and it's not animated like our other musical emoticons, so I am going to have to go with the 1st one.
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:01:37
Agreed.
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:01:37
Quote by BobR:Quote by Raine:
I kinda like the animated one.
piano and piano2 ?
I think the 2nd one is more attractive, but it seems to have a white background and it's not animated like our other musical emoticons, so I am going to have to go with the 1st one.
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 16:03:53
TriSec on 01/02/2013 16:03:53
Bah, I'm blocked - can't see 'em.
Animation is good, and in keeping with the rest of the musician thingies we have out there.
Animation is good, and in keeping with the rest of the musician thingies we have out there.
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:06:01
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:06:01
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:06:57
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:06:57
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:07:18
kind of how i play the piano
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:07:18
Quote by Raine:
kind of how i play the piano
Comment by 
trojanrabbit on 01/02/2013 16:07:22
My condolences, Mala.
trojanrabbit on 01/02/2013 16:07:22
Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
My condolences, Mala.
Comment by Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 16:10:03
Yeah! I am totally with you on that. I mean there were some good bits starting around 11/6, but yeah is pretty much sucked.
Mondobubba on 01/02/2013 16:10:03
Quote by wickedpam:Quote by Mondobubba:Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
Well, poop!
I'm calling it - 2012 kinda sucked in general
Yeah! I am totally with you on that. I mean there were some good bits starting around 11/6, but yeah is pretty much sucked.
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:10:05
Thanks Rabbit.
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:10:05
Quote by trojanrabbit:Quote by wickedpam:
well, this sucks, just found out my last Great-Aunt died on Friday - its not like we'd had a lot of contact, but still, she was my Grandma's sister
My condolences, Mala.
Thanks Rabbit.
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:12:56
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:12:56
Quote by wickedpam:Quote by Raine:
kind of how i play the piano
Comment by 
Will in Chicago on 01/02/2013 16:12:58
Will in Chicago on 01/02/2013 16:12:58
My condolences, Mala, on the passing of your Great Aunt. I still have my Great Aunt Gussie alive here in Chicagoland, but she is about 95.
BobR, thanks for a great blog but I am gettting weary of the can be kicked down the road time and time again. This makes our country seem dysfunctional.
As for myself, I am getting ready for my interview at 11:30 Central. So, I will swing by this afternoon. In the meantime, Happy New Year again to everyone here at Four Freedoms!! Your friendship and support means the world to me.
BobR, thanks for a great blog but I am gettting weary of the can be kicked down the road time and time again. This makes our country seem dysfunctional.
As for myself, I am getting ready for my interview at 11:30 Central. So, I will swing by this afternoon. In the meantime, Happy New Year again to everyone here at Four Freedoms!! Your friendship and support means the world to me.
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:17:19
Thanks Will. Good luck with you interview!!
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:17:19
Quote by Will in Chicago:
My condolences, Mala, on the passing of your Great Aunt. I still have my Great Aunt Gussie alive here in Chicagoland, but she is about 95.
BobR, thanks for a great blog but I am gettting weary of the can be kicked down the road time and time again. This makes our country seem dysfunctional.
As for myself, I am getting ready for my interview at 11:30 Central. So, I will swing by this afternoon. In the meantime, Happy New Year again to everyone here at Four Freedoms!! Your friendship and support means the world to me.
Thanks Will. Good luck with you interview!!
Comment by wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:18:14
music is not my gift to the world - I'll leave that to Bob & Tri
wickedpam on 01/02/2013 16:18:14
Quote by Raine:Quote by wickedpam:Quote by Raine:
kind of how i play the piano
music is not my gift to the world - I'll leave that to Bob & Tri
Comment by TriSec on 01/02/2013 16:22:14
TriSec on 01/02/2013 16:22:14
I'd say 2012 was in decent shape right up to Father's Day.
(Was at the RI AIrshow with Javi that day....then a week later, *poof*)
(Was at the RI AIrshow with Javi that day....then a week later, *poof*)
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:26:23
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:26:23
NOW he's mad?
I swear Repubs don't ever give a shirt about things until it affects them personally. House refused to vote on a Sandy relief bill.
Keep in mind, Eric Cantor is in charge of the house vote schedule...
I swear Repubs don't ever give a shirt about things until it affects them personally. House refused to vote on a Sandy relief bill.
Keep in mind, Eric Cantor is in charge of the house vote schedule...
“For the Speaker to just walk out is inexcusable,†Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., told reporters, adding, “It’s wrong and I’m saying that as a member of the Republican party.â€
Fellow New York Republican Michael Grimm said the move felt like a “personal betrayal.â€
New York Democrat Nita Lowey echoed that sentiment, calling it “a betrayal of the leadership of the Republican party,†while pointing out that the bill had “passed the Senate in a bipartisan way.â€
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:32:29
Maybe Peter King is having his Chris Christie moment...
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:32:29
Quote by Raine:
NOW he's mad?
I swear Repubs don't ever give a shirt about things until it affects them personally. House refused to vote on a Sandy relief bill.
Keep in mind, Eric Cantor is in charge of the house vote schedule...“For the Speaker to just walk out is inexcusable,†Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., told reporters, adding, “It’s wrong and I’m saying that as a member of the Republican party.â€
Fellow New York Republican Michael Grimm said the move felt like a “personal betrayal.â€
New York Democrat Nita Lowey echoed that sentiment, calling it “a betrayal of the leadership of the Republican party,†while pointing out that the bill had “passed the Senate in a bipartisan way.â€
“These Republicans have no problem finding New York when they’re out raising millions of dollars,†King said on Fox News. “They’re in New York all the time filling their pockets with money from New Yorkers. I’m saying right now, anyone from New York or New Jersey who contributes one penny to Congressional Republicans is out of their minds. Because what they did last night was put a knife in the back of New Yorkers and New Jerseyans. It was an absolute disgrace.
King also said he was ready to buck Republican leaders on every issue until the Sandy aid is approved.
“As far as I’m concerned, I’m on my own,†King said. “They’re going to have to go a long way to get my vote on anything.â€
Comment by Raine on 01/02/2013 16:42:07
Raine on 01/02/2013 16:42:07
What if Dems don't want him?
Vaughn Sterling CNN @vplus
Rep. Peter King just indicated to @CNN he is *not* ruling out switching parties over the GOP refusing to help provide Sandy relief