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A Specter of Change
Author: BobR
Date: 04/29/2009 12:28:20
The huge news yesterday (in case you were under a rock) was that PA Republican Senator Arlen Specter changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat. The change has an enormous symbolic impact, but how much change will it make in the actual passing of legislation? Likely not very much.
The symbolic impact revolves around the number "60" which is the magic number of votes required to bust a filibuster. This makes a lot of assumptions: It assumes that:
Some of Specter's previous votes may have been different (and along Democratic lines) if he hadn't been pressured to toe the Republican party line. So we might see some small changes. However, considering that he used to be a Democrat shows that he really has no party loyalty and will latch on to whatever keeps him in office. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the Democrats should be realistic about this. His voting patterns will likely not change very much.
What's actually more interesting than Specter's party swap is the brouhaha it is causing. The Republican party leadership has shifted into high hyperbole:
Considering 2001-2007, maybe not.
Republican party media outlet FAUX News is expectedly bitter about it as well, spitting out the sour grapes:
Specter in turn had a few choice words for them:
Perhaps it's the magic number 60, or perhaps it's the fact that he's such a senior member in the Senate, but the hubbub and celebrations seem a little over the top. Party-switching seems to be a way of life in politics.
Consider too that Specter is 79, and a Hodgkin's Disease survivor. He probably only has one more term left in him anyway, and still needs to fight off any challenger in the 2010 primary. So I guess this gives one Senator the freedom to vote how he wants instead of kowtowing to the Republican party for the next 2 years.
I'd say that's not earth-shattering change... more of an ephemeral specter of change...
The symbolic impact revolves around the number "60" which is the magic number of votes required to bust a filibuster. This makes a lot of assumptions: It assumes that:
- Suddenly Specter is going to vote the Democratic party line,
- All Democrats are going to vote along party lines,
- No Republicans will vote for or have voted in favor of Democratic party-sponsored legislation.
Some of Specter's previous votes may have been different (and along Democratic lines) if he hadn't been pressured to toe the Republican party line. So we might see some small changes. However, considering that he used to be a Democrat shows that he really has no party loyalty and will latch on to whatever keeps him in office. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the Democrats should be realistic about this. His voting patterns will likely not change very much.
What's actually more interesting than Specter's party swap is the brouhaha it is causing. The Republican party leadership has shifted into high hyperbole:
Not long after Specter met privately with Republican senators to explain his decision, the party's leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell, said the switch posed a "threat to the country." The issue, he said, "really relates to ... whether or not in the United States of America our people want the majority party to have whatever it wants, without restraint, without a check or balance."
Considering 2001-2007, maybe not.
Republican party media outlet FAUX News is expectedly bitter about it as well, spitting out the sour grapes:Get the Flash Player to see this player.
Specter in turn had a few choice words for them:
"They don't make any bones about their willingness to lose the general election if they can purify the party. I don't understand it, but that's what they said," he added.
Perhaps it's the magic number 60, or perhaps it's the fact that he's such a senior member in the Senate, but the hubbub and celebrations seem a little over the top. Party-switching seems to be a way of life in politics.
Consider too that Specter is 79, and a Hodgkin's Disease survivor. He probably only has one more term left in him anyway, and still needs to fight off any challenger in the 2010 primary. So I guess this gives one Senator the freedom to vote how he wants instead of kowtowing to the Republican party for the next 2 years.
I'd say that's not earth-shattering change... more of an ephemeral specter of change...
Comments:
Order comments Newest to Oldest Refresh Comments
Comment by 
velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 13:17:31
velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 13:17:31
Well, I don't think he is changing parties - AGAIN - just because he wants to be part of the majority and get re-elected. That would be sooooo cynical of me.....
Comment by 
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 13:20:34
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 13:20:34
I was thinking about this whole thing on the way into the office today and there's a couple things I thought of that could change in Arlen Specter's actions in the Senate..
- Despite his moderate stance as a Republican, I'm sure there were low-radar subjects where he would hold his tongue rather than rock the GOP's boat. He will now be free from such self-imposed limitations and we'll be able to find out how far to the center - or to the left - he will go on some issues.
- Likewise there were times when he would vote with the GOP to block certain legislation. Aside from the issues he's stated publically he would not change his vote (such as EFCA) there may be issues where he would now change.
We'll see how it goes I guess. Oh yes and pulling one back from yesterday's bloggie...
YESSSSSSSSSSSS!
Awesome news - grats Tri!
- Despite his moderate stance as a Republican, I'm sure there were low-radar subjects where he would hold his tongue rather than rock the GOP's boat. He will now be free from such self-imposed limitations and we'll be able to find out how far to the center - or to the left - he will go on some issues.
- Likewise there were times when he would vote with the GOP to block certain legislation. Aside from the issues he's stated publically he would not change his vote (such as EFCA) there may be issues where he would now change.
We'll see how it goes I guess. Oh yes and pulling one back from yesterday's bloggie...
Quote by TriSec:
Good evening, folks.
I is no longer unemployed!
Got the job I wanted, too....with a local company (3 miles from home) with decent people, in a growing and important (and virtually unknown) area of the healthcare industry.
I did not have to become a Sith; I'm still on the doctors' side!
YESSSSSSSSSSSS!
Awesome news - grats Tri!
Comment by velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 13:30:01
velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 13:30:01
Scoopster, those are good points.
And thanks for alerting me to TriSec's news which I missed!
WoHoooo
And thanks for alerting me to TriSec's news which I missed!
WoHoooo
Comment by Scoopster on 04/29/2009 13:44:12
Of course that has something to do with it. 200,000 of his potential GOP primary voters changed their affiliation in the 2008 election cycle, so what was a close race for him in the 2004 primary is now a 10-15 point disadvantage. It's both politically expedient and understandable, and yeah it looks like he's only doing it to get re-elected.
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 13:44:12
Quote by velveeta jones:
Well, I don't think he is changing parties - AGAIN - just because he wants to be part of the majority and get re-elected. That would be sooooo cynical of me.....
Of course that has something to do with it. 200,000 of his potential GOP primary voters changed their affiliation in the 2008 election cycle, so what was a close race for him in the 2004 primary is now a 10-15 point disadvantage. It's both politically expedient and understandable, and yeah it looks like he's only doing it to get re-elected.
Comment by 
Raine on 04/29/2009 13:44:43
Raine on 04/29/2009 13:44:43
Good Morning 
Congratulations to Tri! 
Congratulations to Tri!
Comment by Scoopster on 04/29/2009 14:14:44
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 14:14:44
Interesting possibility here.. Chrysler may give the UAW as much as a 55% ownership stake in the company and a seat on the board...
...in exchange for halving a $10.6bil investment in the union-run employee healthcare trust. I'm not convinced this is a good deal, 'cuz I don't think Chrysler is worth ONE billion, much less over TEN.
...in exchange for halving a $10.6bil investment in the union-run employee healthcare trust. I'm not convinced this is a good deal, 'cuz I don't think Chrysler is worth ONE billion, much less over TEN.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:16:01
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:16:01
Well there it is, our first Flu death in America. 
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:30:46
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:30:46
'splain me this: Specter LEaving the Party is nothing more than political preservation -- and Norm Coleman is doing what?? 
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:31:23
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:31:23
You Go Rush -- you keep going.
Conservative host Rush Limbaugh said Tuesday he isn't sorry to see Arlen Specter leave the GOP — and that many Republicans wish the Pennsylvania senator would take a few others with him when he goes.
"A lot of people say, 'Well, Specter, take [Sen. John] McCain with you. And his daughter [Meghan]. Take McCain and his daughter with you if you're gonna…" he told listeners, dissolving in laughter.
"…..It's ultimately good. You're weeding out people who aren't really Republicans," he said.
Comment by velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 14:35:52
Swine Flu, typically 20,000 - 36,000 die every year from the flu.
velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 14:35:52
Quote by Raine:
Well there it is, our first Flu death in America.
Swine Flu, typically 20,000 - 36,000 die every year from the flu.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:36:37
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:36:37
AP reporting: Two young siblings in Massachusetts who became sick after a trip to Mexico have tested positive for swine flu.
The children from Lowell -- about 35 miles northwest of Boston -- are the first confirmed cases in New England.
The children from Lowell -- about 35 miles northwest of Boston -- are the first confirmed cases in New England.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:37:43
I understand, Not panicking. Just concerned --
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:37:43
Quote by velveeta jones:Quote by Raine:
Well there it is, our first Flu death in America.
Swine Flu, typically 20,000 - 36,000 die every year from the flu.
I understand, Not panicking. Just concerned --
Comment by Scoopster on 04/29/2009 14:44:20
Point taken.. but hey Norm should've thought about that before he lost the election and started acting like a sore fuckin' loser.
Then again, do you think the Minnesota DFL would've taken Norm in? :lol:
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 14:44:20
Quote by Raine:
'splain me this: Specter LEaving the Party is nothing more than political preservation -- and Norm Coleman is doing what??
Point taken.. but hey Norm should've thought about that before he lost the election and started acting like a sore fuckin' loser.
Then again, do you think the Minnesota DFL would've taken Norm in? :lol:
Comment by velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 14:46:52
I, on the other hand, am in TOTAL panic mode
velveeta jones on 04/29/2009 14:46:52
Quote by Raine:Quote by velveeta jones:Quote by Raine:
Well there it is, our first Flu death in America.
Swine Flu, typically 20,000 - 36,000 die every year from the flu.
I understand, Not panicking. Just concerned --
I, on the other hand, am in TOTAL panic mode
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:55:48
I think we need to let the guys in charge do what they do, and keep on washing our hands, etc.
What I hate is that the right is so politicizing this. That is dangerous -- VERY dangerous.
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:55:48
Quote by velveeta jones:
I, on the other hand, am in TOTAL panic mode
I think we need to let the guys in charge do what they do, and keep on washing our hands, etc.
What I hate is that the right is so politicizing this. That is dangerous -- VERY dangerous.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 14:59:18
Raine on 04/29/2009 14:59:18
:rofl: The WHO doesn't want you to die before you get old. :foil:
Comment by 
clintster on 04/29/2009 15:04:21
clintster on 04/29/2009 15:04:21
More Limbaugh news: NOOOOO, Rush, don't speak for the animals!
This has been another edition of Republicans Eating Their Own!
This has been another edition of Republicans Eating Their Own!
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 15:16:37
Raine on 04/29/2009 15:16:37
:rofl:
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 15:18:22
What the FAUX?
I thought he ate puppies?
Raine on 04/29/2009 15:18:22
Quote by clintster:
More Limbaugh news: NOOOOO, Rush, don't speak for the animals!
This has been another edition of Republicans Eating Their Own!
What the FAUX?
I thought he ate puppies?
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 15:20:51
Raine on 04/29/2009 15:20:51
Phase 5 may be declared by WHO today...
Comment by m-hadley on 04/29/2009 15:27:34
Congratulations Mr. TriSec :D
When do you start your new job??? That is great news!
Way to go :clap:
:dance2:
Cheers,
mfaye
& :peace:
m-hadley on 04/29/2009 15:27:34
Quote by Scoopster:
I was thinking about this whole thing on the way into the office today and there's a couple things I thought of that could change in Arlen Specter's actions in the Senate..
- Despite his moderate stance as a Republican, I'm sure there were low-radar subjects where he would hold his tongue rather than rock the GOP's boat. He will now be free from such self-imposed limitations and we'll be able to find out how far to the center - or to the left - he will go on some issues.
- Likewise there were times when he would vote with the GOP to block certain legislation. Aside from the issues he's stated publically he would not change his vote (such as EFCA) there may be issues where he would now change.
We'll see how it goes I guess. Oh yes and pulling one back from yesterday's bloggie...Quote by TriSec:
Good evening, folks.
I is no longer unemployed!
Got the job I wanted, too....with a local company (3 miles from home) with decent people, in a growing and important (and virtually unknown) area of the healthcare industry.
I did not have to become a Sith; I'm still on the doctors' side!
YESSSSSSSSSSSS!
Congratulations Mr. TriSec :D
When do you start your new job??? That is great news!
Way to go :clap:
:dance2:Cheers,
mfaye
& :peace:
Comment by 
BobR on 04/29/2009 15:27:42
:lol: :clap:
BobR on 04/29/2009 15:27:42
Quote by Raine:
:rofl: The WHO doesn't want you to die before you get old. :foil:
:lol: :clap:
Comment by 
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:39:53
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:39:53
Late arrivals now arriving at gate 4F :D
Morning :hug:
Morning :hug:
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:42:35
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:42:35
TRI!!!!
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:46:54
wasn't there a big panic with Avian flu just a few years ago? It's silly to go nuts about this - all anyone can really do is wash their hands, cover their mouths when they sneeze or cough and if they feel flu-ish call a health care provider of some sort, from local clinic to fancy hospital.
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:46:54
Quote by Raine:Quote by velveeta jones:
I, on the other hand, am in TOTAL panic mode
I think we need to let the guys in charge do what they do, and keep on washing our hands, etc.
What I hate is that the right is so politicizing this. That is dangerous -- VERY dangerous.
wasn't there a big panic with Avian flu just a few years ago? It's silly to go nuts about this - all anyone can really do is wash their hands, cover their mouths when they sneeze or cough and if they feel flu-ish call a health care provider of some sort, from local clinic to fancy hospital.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 15:51:12
Raine on 04/29/2009 15:51:12
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 15:52:09
Good Morning Mala! Did you get screened for the Flu at the gate?
Raine on 04/29/2009 15:52:09
Quote by wickedpam:
Late arrivals now arriving at gate 4F :D
Morning :hug:
Good Morning Mala! Did you get screened for the Flu at the gate?
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:52:46
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:52:46
"moral clarity" just like Hal said - code words for - burn in hell
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:55:09
Being that's I've been covered in oak tree pollen since last week and a lovely shade of yellow-green they just waved me though
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 15:55:09
Quote by Raine:Quote by wickedpam:
Late arrivals now arriving at gate 4F :D
Morning :hug:
Good Morning Mala! Did you get screened for the Flu at the gate?
Being that's I've been covered in oak tree pollen since last week and a lovely shade of yellow-green they just waved me though
Comment by 
livingonli on 04/29/2009 15:57:24
livingonli on 04/29/2009 15:57:24
Good morning everyone. 
The good news is at least as far as work is concerned the NHL playoffs are over with both the Rangers and Devils elimination last night which should mean I will get out at Midnight most nights.
The bad news is that it will be much less overtime when I really need the extra money.
The good news is at least as far as work is concerned the NHL playoffs are over with both the Rangers and Devils elimination last night which should mean I will get out at Midnight most nights.
The bad news is that it will be much less overtime when I really need the extra money.
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:02:06
*jumps on bandwagon* Go Caps! *does happy dance *
I'm sure there will be more late games with baseball season in swing now. I understand needing extra cash but take the time between all the overtime to get organzied and relax at home a little :hug:
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:02:06
Quote by livingonli:
Good morning everyone.
The good news is at least as far as work is concerned the NHL playoffs are over with both the Rangers and Devils elimination last night which should mean I will get out at Midnight most nights.
The bad news is that it will be much less overtime when I really need the extra money.
*jumps on bandwagon* Go Caps! *does happy dance
*I'm sure there will be more late games with baseball season in swing now. I understand needing extra cash but take the time between all the overtime to get organzied and relax at home a little :hug:
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:03:14
Lizz is siting in for Ed's whole show? I may just listen :)
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:03:14
Quote by Raine:
Lizz Live in a few minutes!!!
Lizz is siting in for Ed's whole show? I may just listen :)
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:04:05
It's sounding like the GOP wants to do Stalin like purges of the ideologically impure.
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:04:05
Quote by Raine:
You Go Rush -- you keep going.Conservative host Rush Limbaugh said Tuesday he isn't sorry to see Arlen Specter leave the GOP — and that many Republicans wish the Pennsylvania senator would take a few others with him when he goes.
"A lot of people say, 'Well, Specter, take [Sen. John] McCain with you. And his daughter [Meghan]. Take McCain and his daughter with you if you're gonna…" he told listeners, dissolving in laughter.
"…..It's ultimately good. You're weeding out people who aren't really Republicans," he said.
It's sounding like the GOP wants to do Stalin like purges of the ideologically impure.
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:06:34
reminds me more of Animal Farm. Was it Napleaon that had the throats ripped out of the animals that confesed to being non-loyal?
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:06:34
Quote by livingonli:Quote by Raine:
You Go Rush -- you keep going.Conservative host Rush Limbaugh said Tuesday he isn't sorry to see Arlen Specter leave the GOP — and that many Republicans wish the Pennsylvania senator would take a few others with him when he goes.
"A lot of people say, 'Well, Specter, take [Sen. John] McCain with you. And his daughter [Meghan]. Take McCain and his daughter with you if you're gonna…" he told listeners, dissolving in laughter.
"…..It's ultimately good. You're weeding out people who aren't really Republicans," he said.
It's sounding like the GOP wants to do Stalin like purges of the ideologically impure.
reminds me more of Animal Farm. Was it Napleaon that had the throats ripped out of the animals that confesed to being non-loyal?
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:07:56
There is a total lack of rational thought with these right-wing idiots that they take stretches in logic. Then again, logic is probably as bad to them as science.
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:07:56
Quote by clintster:
More Limbaugh news: NOOOOO, Rush, don't speak for the animals!
This has been another edition of Republicans Eating Their Own!
There is a total lack of rational thought with these right-wing idiots that they take stretches in logic. Then again, logic is probably as bad to them as science.
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:11:46
Since the Yankess and Mets jumped ship to their own networks, it is very light during the summer months in the rooms I normally do. Although other rooms do have the Orioles, Nationals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, and Giants. In the MSG cluster, we just have the Red Bulls and Liberty and I think we're doing fewer Liberty games this season.
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:11:46
Quote by wickedpam:Quote by livingonli:
Good morning everyone.
The good news is at least as far as work is concerned the NHL playoffs are over with both the Rangers and Devils elimination last night which should mean I will get out at Midnight most nights.
The bad news is that it will be much less overtime when I really need the extra money.
*jumps on bandwagon* Go Caps! *does happy dance
I'm sure there will be more late games with baseball season in swing now. I understand needing extra cash but take the time between all the overtime to get organzied and relax at home a little :hug:
Since the Yankess and Mets jumped ship to their own networks, it is very light during the summer months in the rooms I normally do. Although other rooms do have the Orioles, Nationals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, and Giants. In the MSG cluster, we just have the Red Bulls and Liberty and I think we're doing fewer Liberty games this season.
Comment by wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:17:48
See, I'm sure you can find overtime somewhere, but like I said everyone needs downtime too :)
wickedpam on 04/29/2009 16:17:48
Quote by livingonli:Quote by wickedpam:Quote by livingonli:
Good morning everyone.
The good news is at least as far as work is concerned the NHL playoffs are over with both the Rangers and Devils elimination last night which should mean I will get out at Midnight most nights.
The bad news is that it will be much less overtime when I really need the extra money.
*jumps on bandwagon* Go Caps! *does happy dance
I'm sure there will be more late games with baseball season in swing now. I understand needing extra cash but take the time between all the overtime to get organzied and relax at home a little :hug:
Since the Yankess and Mets jumped ship to their own networks, it is very light during the summer months in the rooms I normally do. Although other rooms do have the Orioles, Nationals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, and Giants. In the MSG cluster, we just have the Red Bulls and Liberty and I think we're doing fewer Liberty games this season.
See, I'm sure you can find overtime somewhere, but like I said everyone needs downtime too :)
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:21:06
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:21:06
Since I am off the next two days, I'll be looking at local credit counselors so that I can resolve my debt issue. I am getting a little tired on living on just a few bucks and struggling to get by which I have been doing since the beginning of the year. If anything major were to happen I would be so screwed.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:21:27
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:21:27
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:21:54
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:21:54
In B*sh's first 100 days, he spent 54 of them on vacation.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:23:07
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:23:07
Lizz is sounding great!
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:28:49
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:28:49
I'm listening on XM. I only caught a little of last week when she also filled in for Alex Bennett on satellite radio.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:34:14
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:34:14
President Obama a few moments ago at the MO town hall:
"For those of you watching a certain news channel of which I'm not that fond and seeing people waving tea bags around, let me remind them I am happy to have a serious conversation about how we are going to cut health care costs, stabilize Social Security..."
"For those of you watching a certain news channel of which I'm not that fond and seeing people waving tea bags around, let me remind them I am happy to have a serious conversation about how we are going to cut health care costs, stabilize Social Security..."
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:35:31
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:35:31
David Sirota!
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:37:13
Are you friends with him on facebook?
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:37:13
Quote by Raine:
David Sirota!
Are you friends with him on facebook?
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:37:44
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:37:44
BREAKING: U.S.-MEXICO BORDER PARTLY CLOSED.
Details coming.
Details coming.
Comment by Raine on 04/29/2009 16:39:26
Of course.
Raine on 04/29/2009 16:39:26
Quote by livingonli:Quote by Raine:
David Sirota!
Are you friends with him on facebook?
Of course.
Comment by livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:50:55
livingonli on 04/29/2009 16:50:55
The temperature hit 119 degrees in India.
Comment by Scoopster on 04/29/2009 17:31:16
CALL 'EM OUT LIKE A BOSS.. :rofl:
Scoopster on 04/29/2009 17:31:16
Quote by Raine:
President Obama a few moments ago at the MO town hall:
"For those of you watching a certain news channel of which I'm not that fond and seeing people waving tea bags around, let me remind them I am happy to have a serious conversation about how we are going to cut health care costs, stabilize Social Security..."
CALL 'EM OUT LIKE A BOSS.. :rofl: