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The Real Winner on Tuesday
Author: BobR
Date: 06/06/2012 11:35:00
Yesterday was another primary day. Five states held primaries for the Republican candidates. If you weren't aware of them or the results, it's because 95% of the attention from the media was on the recall election in Wisconsin. As anyone reading this is already aware, it did not go well for those hoping to see Governor Walker lose his job. The real winner yesterday, though, was not any particular person.
We'll get to that in a minute. First, though, those pesky primary results. As one might expect, Romney took all 5 states. What's interesting is his margins. In all of the states, Ron Paul got is requisite 10-15% result from his small but fervent fan base. Romney did not get 85-90% though. In Montana and South Dakota, he only got mid 60s. There were still sizeable contingents casting votes for Santorum and Gingrich, even though they are not in the race. This is not a good vote of confidence for Romney. How this plays out in November remains to be seen.
The reason that not too much can be read into this is the same reason that not too much can be read into the recall election. Scott Walker retained his governorship by approximately the same percentage as when he was originally elected. Polling prior to Tuesday showed that to be the case, but hope springs eternal. This doesn't really spell doom and gloom for President Obama because exit polling also showed that the majority of voters would still be voting for him in November:
The recall and the results may have humbled Walker a bit:
So now Walker wants to have a cookout with the state congress to smooth over the ruffled feathers and work together. He's going to have to be a bit more conciliatory, now that the Dems control the state senate:
Walker should also give pause to consider what it cost him to essentially get the people who voted for him previously to vote for him again. He had to spend 10 times the amount Bennett spent to essentially maintain the status quo:
This is a clear indicator of the role of money in this year's campaigns. We saw this coming with the Citizen's United ruling, and the reality is here now. If marketeers and advertisers can get you to spend money on dubious products you don't really need, they can certainly get the electorate to vote against their own interests, provided there's enough money for advertising.
Clearly, there is.
We'll get to that in a minute. First, though, those pesky primary results. As one might expect, Romney took all 5 states. What's interesting is his margins. In all of the states, Ron Paul got is requisite 10-15% result from his small but fervent fan base. Romney did not get 85-90% though. In Montana and South Dakota, he only got mid 60s. There were still sizeable contingents casting votes for Santorum and Gingrich, even though they are not in the race. This is not a good vote of confidence for Romney. How this plays out in November remains to be seen.
The reason that not too much can be read into this is the same reason that not too much can be read into the recall election. Scott Walker retained his governorship by approximately the same percentage as when he was originally elected. Polling prior to Tuesday showed that to be the case, but hope springs eternal. This doesn't really spell doom and gloom for President Obama because exit polling also showed that the majority of voters would still be voting for him in November:
Obama led Romney by a 9 percent margin in the final exit polling — a note of encouragement for Democrats looking ahead toward November — and the president's campaign director in Wisconsin said the outcome was "a testament to all of those individuals who talked to their friends, neighbors, and colleagues about the stakes in this election of how close this contest was."
The recall and the results may have humbled Walker a bit:
Walker, making a pivot toward healing his state's raw wounds, acknowledged that he might have "rushed" his pursuit of reforms early in his terms before consulting with political opponents.
So now Walker wants to have a cookout with the state congress to smooth over the ruffled feathers and work together. He's going to have to be a bit more conciliatory, now that the Dems control the state senate:
At 2 a.m., Racine County posted full results online, supporting former Sen. John Lehman victory declaration at his election night party. Sen. Van Wanggaard, who was facing recall, sent everyone home an hour before Lehman's announcement.
Former Sen. John Lehman was the only Democrat on the recall ballots to declare victory.
At 12:53 a.m., he dedicated his victory to all the hard work and hours of service from volunteers who led the recall efforts in the 21st Senate District, where they went after Sen. Van Wanggaard, who had defeated Lehman in November 2010.
The final vote totals were posted after 1:30 a.m., and by 2 a.m., district-wide unofficial results stood at:
Wanggaard: 35,476
Lehman: 36,255
This win gives Democrats control of the State Senate. These results remain unofficial until they are certified.
Walker should also give pause to consider what it cost him to essentially get the people who voted for him previously to vote for him again. He had to spend 10 times the amount Bennett spent to essentially maintain the status quo:
This is a clear indicator of the role of money in this year's campaigns. We saw this coming with the Citizen's United ruling, and the reality is here now. If marketeers and advertisers can get you to spend money on dubious products you don't really need, they can certainly get the electorate to vote against their own interests, provided there's enough money for advertising.
Clearly, there is.
