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Theory Reality
Author: BobR    Date: 2014-03-19 10:31:21

The missing plane of Malaysian Airlines flight 370 has certainly captured the imagination of the public. It's so odd for jetliners to simply disappear without a trace (and it wasn't even in the Bermuda Triangle). Questions of how inevitably lead to questions of why, and those are the hardest to discern without getting the answer straight from the horse's mouth.

There have been a lot of ideas floated around, from hijacking to terrorism to an electrical fire to mid-air identity swaps. Little snippets of facts about the pilots' personal lives get held aloft like championship trophies, and then dissected and examined for potential insight. There are two key facts, though that make this curious: The plane's flight path was changed 12 minutes before the last voice transmission, and residents in the Maldives reported a low flying jet matching the description of the "Lost" plane.

All of this is creating a plethora of conspiracy theories. There are two big problems with conspiracy theories. One is that they start with a preconceived notion, and look for facts that support it and purposely marginalize facts that don't. That is unsound scientific practice. The second problem is that name "theory", which is a descriptor of sound scientific examination. A much better descriptor would be "speculation".

Using the term "theory" degrades a term which has a much higher standard of proof in the scientific world. The theory of gravity is one example - we know gravity exists, we just don't know what causes it. Nonetheless, we can maintain satelites in geosynchronous orbit because we know how it works in real life. The theory of evolution is another. We know species evolve, either via natural or man-made selection. The new "Cosmos" show showed the example of the wolf being selectively bred, first to create domesticated dogs, and later to create (and maintain) the various breeds.

We have another example in real life for how it happens in the "wild". Crops are routinely either selectively bred or genetically engineered to be pest-resistant. This was done with corn to thwart the rootworm. Just like with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, all it takes is a few hardy survivors to pass on their resistance to their offspring, and boom: you get rootworms that can chow on the corn that was bred to kill it. Now this scourge is once again on the rebound, and farmers have no recourse. The theory of evolution predicts this, and is once again proven correct.

Another important theory that scientists have been struggling to prove may a lot closer to being proven: the Big Bang. This theoretical origin of the universe itself has been studied for decades. Astronomers have finally captured evidence of the gravity waves that were predicted years ago, but never found. This discovery is another piece of the puzzle that fits. The evidence is very solid, and provides even more proof that the Big Bang is the best explanation for the origin of our universe.

And yet - we still call it a "theory", even though there is much more measurable proof of this than there is for some of the wacky theories surrounding the vanished plane. Those speculations don't deserve the name "theory". It's time for a new name that more accurately describes what they are. Leave "theory" to the scientists with researched and peer-reviewed evidence.
 

42 comments (Latest Comment: 03/19/2014 21:51:12 by Will in Chicago)
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