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Paint By Numbers
Author: BobR    Date: 05/09/2008 12:40:36

The last round of primaries had the effect of crowning Barack Obama the Democratic party nominee. The Clinton camp (and her supporters) are trying against all reality (forget odds) to overcome his lead with only a small handful of primaries left. Her only hope at this point is to convince most of the superdelegates to switch to her side.

To do this she must convince them that Barack Obama cannot beat McCain; she must convince them that only she can. She can cite polls, she can use racist language, she can evoke shadowy issues hiding under the bed that could turn ugly when the harsh spotlight is finally shone beneath the dust ruffle. What she CAN'T do, however, is change the reality of the popular vote.

In the race for the Democratic party nomination, everyone has been focusing on the magic number of delegates. The Clinton campaign has also tried to bring the popular vote into the equation citing Michigan (where Obama was not on the ballot) and FL. After several months of watching the primary returns, one thing that struck me is the number of people voting in the Democratic primaries compared to those voting in the Republican primaries. So I decided to tally them up.

The results - too big to post in their entirety on this blog page - can be found HERE.

Take a look at the bottom line for the Primary states:
McCain: 8.7 million votes
Obama: 15.6 million votes

The Caucus states show a similar pattern, although I'm not sure if they calculate those differently between the two parties. The bottom line is: nearly twice as many people have voted in this primary for Obama as have voted for McCain, despite McCain being the far-ahead front runner in the Republican race, and Obama essentially splitting the votes with Clinton in the Democratic race.

Making the assumption that EVERYONE that voted for Clinton stayed home for the General, and at the EVERYONE that voted for McCain voted in the General, Obama would win in a landslide.

That's not a very realistic assumption of course. There are a lot of variables here:
  • The majority of Clinton supporters would likely end up voting for Obama

  • A certain small minority of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain as a protest

  • A certain small minority of Clinton supporters would vote for a 3rd party candidate as a protest

  • A certain small minority of Clinton supporters wouldn't vote at all as a protest

  • Republicans that voted in the Democratic primaries would vote for McCain in the General

  • There is a sizeable chunk of independents and middle-of-the-roaders that didn't vote in the primaries that would vote in the General, but realistically, they would approximately split the vote.

The bottom line is: None of those things are going to erase the 7-8 million vote difference between McCain and Obama. The polls may say otherwise, but the only poll that matters is the one taken on Nov 04. Of course - the other side is also true as well, that Clinton could just as easily win it for the same reasons. However, she is not ahead in the delegate count, and is not likely to get ahead.

The numbers paint a very convincing portrait, one of Barack Obama being sworn into the Office of the Presidency on Jan 20, 2009.

 

245 comments (Latest Comment: 05/10/2008 03:45:00 by livingonli)
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Comment by Scoopster on 05/09/2008 12:45:33
Oh sure.. NOW you post it!



Ah well, good morning to everyone! I've got a musical interlude to help start everyone's day, courtesy of a group called the Rustic Overtones.







This one had my eyes wellin' up when I heard it for the first time this morning.

Comment by Mondobubba on 05/09/2008 12:46:53
Interesting analysis, Bobber. First! :banana:



Why you might ask is Mondo up at this ungodly hour on a Friday, his day off? Because I get to go downtown to the deposition place with Brother Mondo. It should be riviting! :scarcasm:

Comment by Scoopster on 05/09/2008 12:48:57
Mondo brotha! (Haaa i beat yoooouuu~!)

Comment by Mondobubba on 05/09/2008 12:52:21
Quote by Mondobubba:

Interesting analysis, Bobber. First! :banana:



Why you might ask is Mondo up at this ungodly hour on a Friday, his day off? Because I get to go downtown to the deposition place with Brother Mondo. It should be riviting! :scarcasm:






Missed it by that much : Maxwell Smart:



Comment by Mondobubba on 05/09/2008 12:53:10
Quote by Scoopster:

Mondo brotha! (Haaa i beat yoooouuu~!)




see below! Nice song to start the day.

Comment by jd_in_ny on 05/09/2008 12:55:20
good morning!



I like playing with the numbers as much as the next geek, so I enjoyed your post, but numbers can be made to say just about anything - we've seen it before, we'll see it again. It's actually kind of amusing the gymnastics Clinton supporters have been doing to make the numbers look good for them...



I think Hillary needs a reality check. Her argument that she is the only one who can beat McCain is just wrong, and it contradicts what she herself admitted at the ABC "debate" (loathe as I am to mention it). When asked whether Obama could win in November, Senator Clinton replied (grudgingly) "Yes. Yes. Yes."



She has lost the primary battle based on rules she accepted, and previously liked, when they seemed to favor her. I remember the beginning of the race when her campaign insisted it was "all about the delegates".



She has alienated a lot of the democratic base. I voted for her twice as my Senator, I gave money to her first Senatorial campaign. I enjoyed meeting with her, and on balance I still have a lot of respect for her. But she wrote me off time and again as too young, naive, well-educated, elite, blah blah blah.



Obama is my candidate -- presumptively our candidate, and Hillary needs to stop doing everything she can to kneecap him. Seriously.

Comment by Scoopster on 05/09/2008 12:56:20
Quote by Mondobubba:

Quote by Scoopster:

Mondo brotha! (Haaa i beat yoooouuu~!)




see below! Nice song to start the day.


The local college station played it in a block with REM's Orange Crush and Alice In Chains' Rooster.. was an interesting 12 minutes or so of inward reflection.

Comment by Scoopster on 05/09/2008 12:58:27
Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:01:36
Good morning!



Bobber with the serious math this morning!

Comment by Shane-O on 05/09/2008 13:06:23
Good morning everybody!

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:10:16
Nice Shane-o!

Comment by Scoopster on 05/09/2008 13:14:58
Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:17:42
Good morning everyone.



Soooo...Bobber, looking at the link you posted makes me think that Hillary's camp will now try and change the rules to use of the Popular Vote.





Comment by m-hadley on 05/09/2008 13:21:35
Mornin' Everybody :yawn:

Happy Friday :D

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:21:53
:rofl:



producerchris!! Starting the show over!!



Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:25:47
FAYE!! : waving :

Comment by Shane-O on 05/09/2008 13:26:44
dancin' yeah!

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:27:15
Wow...Momma really doesn't let people talk lately.

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:28:22
Not saying I don't agree with her. . . . just sayin. . . .



Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:29:59
Good morning everyone!!!

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:30:18
Of course I guess if people are spouting nonsense, it's okay to cut them off.





Comment by Shane-O on 05/09/2008 13:32:48
Scoopster - I saw the Edwards interview this morning. The conclusion of the Kos article makes sense - using some duduction:

1. John Edwards said that he voted for a different Dem candidate than Elizabeth

2. Elizabeth Edwards has gone on the record supporting Clinton's healthcare plan, and she has attended Clinton rallies

3. So - iff Elizabeth Edward voted for Clinton, then John voted for Obama

4. Edwards, this morning, said he would endorse who he voted for



Thus - Edwards will endorse Obama. But iff Elizabeth voted for Clinton.



My head hurts.



Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:34:31
Quote by right wing hater:

Good morning Everyone!



Daily Reading has been posted....Here are a few of the stories...



Portrait of an oil-addicted former superpower; How rising oil prices are obliterating America's superpower status - http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/5/8/153211/0730

The longer we hold this country hostage with old, polluting, finite energy sources...the deeper the abyss of the dollar, the economy, the environment, and the future of this country...



A Picture is Worth...A Hundred Thousand Words...Myanmar Before and After Cyclone Nargis - http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/picture-worth-myanmar.php

Shocking...Myanmar from space....in case anyone still feels the climate crisis is not a big deal...



Politico: Obama plans to declare victory May 20 - http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10184.html



Hey Raine...thanks for the story on new Bill for Net Neutrality...added my quick 2cents....



Happy Friday everyone....180 days until Barack Obama is elected president!
reposting in today's bloggie...





Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:36:13
Oh Donnie. You are tiresome. : waves hand : : stirs martini :



Comment by jd_in_ny on 05/09/2008 13:37:03
no more Donnie. Can we have a Donnie-free week?

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:38:26
I was insulted with Hillary's comments... but I am over it... Barack is the nominee... I am going to post something I posted last night:



The two endorsements bring Clinton's advantage over Obama among superdelegates down to seven, according to CNN's estimate; Clinton has the backing of 267 superdelegates, while Obama has 250.



Since Tuesday's primaries, Obama has gained six superdelegates while Clinton has picked up one. But Clinton also lost a superdelegate Wednesday — DNC member Jennifer McClellan switched her support to Obama — for a net gain of zero.


From CNN...



OK. So, hillary is now just looking foolish. Barack Obama can unite us, despite these divisionary statements. Bill Clinton didn't win the election by winning the White vote, it should be noted so whatever...



In the mean time McCain is vowing to Pass LAws that have already been passed...


McCain also said he would crack down on human trafficking by creating a inter-agency task force to strengthen cooperation between federal, state and local law enforcement.



McCain said he would to work to change the economic incentives underpinning trafficking as well as doing more to aid the victims of "this evil form of 21st-century slavery."


First, HE voted against this sort of thing when we found out a few of his former buddies went to the Marianna Islands (Tom Delay, anyone)



From The DOJ: (More at the link)

Prosecution

The United States Government continued its efforts to improve anti-trafficking law enforcement efforts over the reporting period. The United States prohibits all forms of trafficking in persons through criminal statutes created or strengthened by the 2000 Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA), which prescribes penalties of up to 20 years' imprisonment-penalties that are sufficiently stringent and commensurate with those for other grave crimes. In FY 2006, the Department of Justice's (DOJ) Civil Rights Division and U.S. Attorneys' Offices initiated 168 investigations, charged 111 individuals, and obtained 98 convictions (including in cases initiated in previous fiscal years). Under the TVPA, traffickers can be sentenced to up to 20 years' imprisonment. The average sentence imposed for trafficking crimes in FY 2005 was 8.5 years (including defendants convicted in other fiscal years). The Federal Bureau of Investigation and DOJ Criminal Division continued to combat the exploitation of children in prostitution in the United States through the Innocence Lost National Initiative; in FY 2006, this Initiative resulted in 103 open investigations, 157 arrests, 76 indictments, and 43 convictions.



State and local governments also made significant law enforcement efforts against trafficking in persons. By the end of 2006, 27 states had passed criminal anti-trafficking legislation. DOJ and Health and Human Services (HHS) continue to increase the number of anti-trafficking task forces, coalitions, and outreach efforts across the United States. DOJ funded 42 task forces at the end of FY 2006, up from 32 in FY 2005. These task forces bring together state, local, and federal law enforcement with partners from NGOs.



In 2006, the Department of Labor's Wage and Hour Division (WHD) began developing resources to help investigators identify potential trafficking issues and began introducing trafficking issues into its investigator training curriculum. During the past year, WHD staff participated in over 30 local, multi-agency task forces on trafficking.




This is what the Media needs to be focusing on. instead of what Hillary is doing.



And These are the things we need to keep an eye out for. This was not a senior moment... this is a man that does not know what he is talking about.



Perhaps he could promise to have this law ENFORCED... but he won't... he voted agaisnt strengthening this in 2006, and he will continue to water it down if he is elected.









Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:39:15
Quote by jd_in_ny:

no more Donnie. Can we have a Donnie-free week?
May 20th...



Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:40:14
:star: it seems like Momma has been really hopped up and kinda hyper lately. Primary syndrome. that is what I am calling it.

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:41:27
Ooohhh....is there Friday with Frangela today!?!?





Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:42:16
:clap: excellent piece.



Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:42:43
Go MAXINE! Go MAXINE! Go MAXINE! Go MAXINE! Go MAXINE!

: arsenio hall old skool arm pump : "Woof! Woof! Woof!

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:45:02
Speak it MAXINE!!! She sounds PUMPED!

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:45:46
I gave a "BITTER" VOTER FOR OBAMA to someone yesterday and she took it as meaning she will vote for Obama even though she's bitter that Hillary didn't get the nomination.



I hope other people get the intended meaning.



Anyone have the Snail Mail information for Momma and the Mooks? I'd like to send them some stickies!!!

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:53:51
According the ABC, Obama now has the lead in SD's.



I don't know if that is correct. I think it is more likely down to about 4 SDs behind... but we are getting closer and closer!

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 13:54:15
Howz about a stimulus package that...mmm....i don't know....lowers the GAS PRICES!?!?!?!



Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:55:36
Comment by wickedpam on 05/09/2008 13:57:18
Morning :hug:

Comment by m-hadley on 05/09/2008 13:59:09
Starling,

Snail Mail for Momma and the Mooks (& Rebekah, too):

The Stephanie Miller Show

KTLK AM 1150

3400 W. Olive Ave. Suite 550

Burbank, CA 91505

BTB, you should be receiving a very small stimulus check from the radical militant librarian in the mail soon :D

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 13:59:49
Starling, do you already have my address? I think I was assuming you you did.

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 14:01:02
There goes Faye with the stimulus talk again!

Comment by m-hadley on 05/09/2008 14:01:38
Add two more Super dupers to Obama's tally :)

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 14:02:19
Quote by Raine:

Starling, do you already have my address? I think I was assuming you you did.




Yup!

Comment by m-hadley on 05/09/2008 14:03:16
Me and Leo are all about the stimulus - I guess I'm gonna spend the weekend in the penalty box

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 14:03:25
Quote by m-hadley:

Starling,

Snail Mail for Momma and the Mooks (& Rebekah, too):

The Stephanie Miller Show

KTLK AM 1150

3400 W. Olive Ave. Suite 550

Burbank, CA 91505

BTB, you should be receiving a very small stimulus check from the radical militant librarian in the mail soon :D

Cheers,

mfaye




;)

Comment by starling310 on 05/09/2008 14:05:55
Quote by Raine:

:star: it seems like Momma has been really hopped up and kinda hyper lately. Primary syndrome. that is what I am calling it.






I think you're correct. She is forgiven.



Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 14:07:36
Today's pull your heartstring story....



Did anyone hear the story yesterday about the oldest league bowler passing away?

I don't have the obit that I read in the AJC, only This AP article...



Well in today's "peach Buzz" section of the paper (the peach Buss is like a little like "page 6" kinds local gossip etc...) I Read this...



At 104, she’s grieving for bowling beau

As soon as we received word of Bill Hargrove’s passing Thursday at Buzz Central, we immediately picked up the phone and rang Rachel Rosen Lehmann, our favorite 104-year-old reader.





As you’ll no doubt recall, Lehmann first called us back in March 2005, after reading about bowler Bill “Tiger” Hargrove, then 102, who had just been featured in the AJC Sports section. Lehmann wanted his digits. We happily obliged. The two ended up getting on so well, Hargrove showed up at the longtime Atlanta Opera volunteer’s 102nd birthday party in June of that year with three long-stemmed red roses. Sporting a jacket and tie, Hargrove gave her a hug and purred in her ear: “I came in here looking for an old lady but I couldn’t find one.”



We took copious notes and the pair ended up on the front page much to the delight of readers.



“Oh, Bill, what a darling sweet man,” Lehmann reflected Thursday. “He was a real Southern gentleman. He would always call me ‘Rachel darlin’ ’ in that accent of his. It was the cutest thing.”



Lehmann told us the two met up from time to time when they could arrange transportation but mostly kept up via phone calls.



Said Lehmann: “He would tell me, ‘When I go to bed at night, I see you in my dreams.’ How can you top that? They aren’t making gentlemen like that anymore.”



Regrettably, Lehmann never had a chance to take Hargrove to her beloved Atlanta Opera. But she did attend his 106th birthday party last year.



“I brought him a big bottle of wine!” Lehmann recalled with a wicked laugh. “I mean, at our age, why not? We always had so much fun together. I just wish we could have started a little earlier. But I’m so happy I got to meet him. And so handsome!”



In tribute to her bowling beau, the Zaban Tower retirement community songbird plans to attend Hargrove’s memorial service Saturday at 2 p.m. at Atlanta’s Grace United Methodist Church.



With three long-stemmed red roses in hand.



http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/04/79/32/image_7032794.jpg


Comment by m-hadley on 05/09/2008 14:08:42
Quote by starling310:

Quote by Raine:

:star: it seems like Momma has been really hopped up and kinda hyper lately. Primary syndrome. that is what I am calling it.






I think you're correct. She is forgiven.







May I use the same excuse??? Not sure what has gotten into me lately, feeling especially feisty :D

Cheers,

mfaye

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 14:10:07
I think we can all use the excuse. SOOOO many people are just ready to move on.

Comment by livingonli on 05/09/2008 14:11:21
Good morning everyone.



I can't post in the SMS blog until Clay, Donnie, and SMH are chased away. They are poisoning in the well with their shilling which is now turned into lying for Hillary.

Comment by Raine on 05/09/2008 14:12:19
:wacko: the RadioEqualizer is just a loon.



::: Peter from Family Guy's foriegn co-worker voice ::: It's funny because it's Ironic you see?