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Plowing the Field
Author: BobR    Date: 06/12/2019 13:21:20

It's starting to get real, folks. The first Democratic primary is about 6 months away. The first debate is just 2 weeks away. With 23 democrats running to be the Democratic candidate, it's going to be a crowded stage. Not unlike the Republican field in 2016, the party has had to set some guidelines as to who can participate. In short, if a candidate is 1% or better in the polls, or has "received donations from at least (1) 65,000 unique donors; and (2) a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states", then they may participate in the debate.

So who qualifies at this point? Based on the polls, there are 8: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar. The first two are benefiting from name recognition, and being involved in presidential campaigns previously (Biden as veep, Sanders as a 2016 election primary candidate). Elizabeth Warren is doing well despite being a fairly wonky Senator from New England, likely due to her dogged campaigning, clear message, and "real" personality. Buttigieg has a good message and is a "fresh face", with a wisdom that belies his scant political experience (the same with O'Rourke). Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar all have their records as senators, but can sometimes come off as a little "politician-y".

Sanders is essentially redoing his "Bernie" thing. I can't help but hear the theme to "Curb Your Enthusiasm" whenever I see him. My personal take is that he's big on "ideas", but weak on actual details (which is Elizabeth Warren's strong point). He keeps talking about "revolution" without realizing that it already occurred when tRumpy got elected, and the end-result has not made anything better.

Biden is being... well... Uncle Joe. He seems to be running the campaign he meant to run back in 2016, and it just seems a bit tired and anachronistic now. He's positioned himself as the "anti-Trump", without being pro anything. He's also a walking talking gaffe machine, as his seemingly poll-driven reversal on the Hyde amendment demonstrated. As much as I like him, and know his experience at veep would serve him well and allow him to hit the ground running, it's just hard to get excited about his campaign when Warren is doing it so much better (is my bias showing? oh well...)

Whomever the candidate turns out to be, their message should be economic policy:
Rank-and-file Democrats of all income levels are largely united around big economic policy themes, a new study shows. The Republican Party, by contrast, features a significant internal division that basically tracks income lines, with lower-income Republicans being much more moderate on a range of economics-related issues.

[...]

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yWlJmZQIlupm8UYGFVxjXbclS7M=/0x0:1288x948/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1288x948):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16331998/Screen_Shot_2019_06_10_at_9.32.31_PM.png

What that means is that lower-income Republican voters might be inclined to cross party lines if the Democratic candidate delivers a clear economic message.

The only place that may not work is - oddly enough - Pennsylvania:
A small group of voters we spoke to here, who had switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, are sticking with Trump in 2020 — unlike other swing voters who are getting tired of him.

Why it matters: Their loyalty is a wakeup call to all 2020 Democrats, but especially Joe Biden, since he's banking heavily on his ability to win the state.

That was the main takeaway from the latest Engagious/FPG focus group I watched here last week, which included eight Obama/Trump voters.

The big picture: Pennsylvania was crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, and it's a key state Democrats are hoping to win back in 2020. These swing voters show the importance of Democratic candidates breaking through in rural areas like Erie if they want to replace Trump.
(details at the link)

Undoing the damage done by tRump will take a special person. First, that person needs to become the Democratic candidate, and then that person needs to be beat tRumpy in the 2020 general election. That's a long way off, and between now and then we've got a bushel of candidates to sort through to find the right one.

 

23 comments (Latest Comment: 06/12/2019 21:41:03 by Mondobubba)
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Comments:

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Comment by wickedpam on 06/12/2019 13:33:23
Morning

Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 13:55:37


I love the wonky blog.

Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 14:06:39
this is adorbs!





Comment by Scoopster on 06/12/2019 14:16:09
Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 14:22:21
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all!

Some insanely massive news from the medical community today - the cause of atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) has been discovered, and apparently there's an available treatment for it!

ACNE MEDICINE?!

Wow.

Comment by wickedpam on 06/12/2019 15:01:15
HOW IS A CENSUS QUESTION EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE!!!


Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 15:16:03
She good, I gotta say.





Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 15:30:16
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 06/12/2019 15:30:50
Good morning bloggers!!

I hope that every one is doing well. Yesterday was the last day of school. I will come back unless I find something better.

Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 15:31:37
Now something on the topic. Yup, Trump's poll number in the states that got him over the top suck right now.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 06/12/2019 15:38:02
I think that Trump only has the same electoral map as 2016 to win in 2020. This is a vulnerability as he only won the archatc entity called the Electoral College by less than 80,000 votes.

Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 15:44:08
https://images.dealer.com/ddc/vehicles/2019/Subaru/Crosstrek/SUV/trim_20i_Limited_45344c/color/Venetian%20Red%20Pearl-VRP-111%2C0%2C23-640-en_US.jpg


Comment by wickedpam on 06/12/2019 15:47:49
Quote by Mondobubba:
https://images.dealer.com/ddc/vehicles/2019/Subaru/Crosstrek/SUV/trim_20i_Limited_45344c/color/Venetian%20Red%20Pearl-VRP-111%2C0%2C23-640-en_US.jpg



Pretty.

Comment by wickedpam on 06/12/2019 15:52:22
Baby Trump 4th of July

Is it bad that I have the vision of hundreds of baby tRump beach balls being bounced all around while he's blathering on?

Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 16:05:28
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 16:21:04
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


I've missed you guys as well. I feel good about where I am where and where I am going for the first time in months. My boss was really supportive of my decision, which made it so much easier. I'm taking some time to decompress and then I am going to start planning a trip.

Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 16:23:08
BTW, I am not normally one to name my cars, but I have named this one. I have dubbed her Nancy in memory of my mom.

Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 17:07:06
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


I've missed you guys as well. I feel good about where I am where and where I am going for the first time in months. My boss was really supportive of my decision, which made it so much easier. I'm taking some time to decompress and then I am going to start planning a trip.
That makes me really happy, Mondo.

I love the cars name!


Comment by BobR on 06/12/2019 17:58:37
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


I've missed you guys as well. I feel good about where I am where and where I am going for the first time in months. My boss was really supportive of my decision, which made it so much easier. I'm taking some time to decompress and then I am going to start planning a trip.

Planning a trip? Perchance to your old stomping grounds?

Comment by Raine on 06/12/2019 19:05:24
huh?



Comment by Scoopster on 06/12/2019 19:34:16
That sound bite alone would make an amazing campaign ad.

"How can you vote for someone whose words you can't even trust, by his own admission?"

Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 21:34:16
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


I've missed you guys as well. I feel good about where I am where and where I am going for the first time in months. My boss was really supportive of my decision, which made it so much easier. I'm taking some time to decompress and then I am going to start planning a trip.

Planning a trip? Perchance to your old stomping grounds?



Could be!


Comment by Mondobubba on 06/12/2019 21:41:03
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Hello mon folks. I am free of my job as of yesterday. I quit! I was so fucking unhappy there for the past few months. Since I've got money from my mom's estate, I have money in the bank to carry me. So, two of my short-term goals have been achieved.

I know you are saying, "Mondo, what is the second goal?" I will tell you! I am picking up my new Subaru at 1:00. So, I like Tri, must be a lesbian. I sleep with women and drive a Subaru.
This is all awesome!

I have mised you around these parts, friend!


I've missed you guys as well. I feel good about where I am where and where I am going for the first time in months. My boss was really supportive of my decision, which made it so much easier. I'm taking some time to decompress and then I am going to start planning a trip.
That makes me really happy, Mondo.

I love the cars name!


7 fracking manuals! The full owner's manual, the "quick guide," the EyeSight driver assistance manual, the quick guide for that, the StarLink manual, the StarLink quick guide and the StarLink safety and security manual. This is the price of technology.

Also, my insurance premiums dropped by almost 25%!