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On to the General
Author: BobR    Date: 06/08/2016 13:15:33

The primaries came to an end last night, as did the dreams and hopes for the Sanders campaign and his supporters. The premature calling of the election for Clinton on Monday caused anger in the Sanders camp, and rightly so. There was the hope (and and it seemed entirely possible) that Sanders would win a landslide in California, using its 475 delegates to close the gap so tightly between him and Clinton that swaying the super-delegates could be enough to gain him the nomination.

Even without all of the precincts counted and delegates awarded however (69%), the California Miracle has not materialized. As of this writing, Clinton is actually ahead in California. She gained 238 delegates there, compared to Sanders' 155. This is on top of her strong showing in NJ. So now it comes down to math, and the delegate count:

Clinton, pledged: 2168
Sanders, pledged: 1777

Needed to win: 2383

Still to be awarded in CA: 82
Number of Super Delegates: 719

To get to the magic number, Clinton needs 215 more delegates. For Sanders, it will require 606. Even if he wins the rest of the CA pledged delegates, he will need 524 of the 719 super-delegates to vote for him. Considering that in both the popular vote and the pledged delegates awarded Clinton has a significant lead, there is no realistic scenario where that would happen. All it takes is for the super-delegates to be awarded by states won or by percentage of pledged delegates won, and that will push Clinton over the top.

The question between now and the convention (and between the convention and election day) is: what will the Sanders super-supporters do? I am not referring to those who supported Sanders, but will "vote blue, no matter who", or will grudgingly pull the lever for Clinton. I am talking about the scorched-earth-burn-the-village-to-save-it-REVOLUTION! supporters who have pledged to never ever ever vote for Clinton. At this point, their hopes must be yielding to reality (unless they're delusional). Will they stick to their guns and vote Green Party or do a write-in for Sanders (or - God forbid - vote for Trump)?

That - as much as the Democratic Party getting us that much closer to breaking the Glass Ceiling - will be the story to watch over the next several weeks and months (regarding the "first women as a candidate for president" meme, some may point out Jill Stein or Cynthia McKenny. They are considered 3rd party, but the point is taken. The reality is that their process is also not nearly as arduous as the process for the Democratic and Republican parties. making Clinton's accomplishment much more significant).

As the over-used trope says: Watch this space.

11 comments (Latest Comment: 06/09/2016 00:26:27 by Will in Chicago)
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