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On to the General
Author: BobR    Date: 06/08/2016 13:15:33

The primaries came to an end last night, as did the dreams and hopes for the Sanders campaign and his supporters. The premature calling of the election for Clinton on Monday caused anger in the Sanders camp, and rightly so. There was the hope (and and it seemed entirely possible) that Sanders would win a landslide in California, using its 475 delegates to close the gap so tightly between him and Clinton that swaying the super-delegates could be enough to gain him the nomination.

Even without all of the precincts counted and delegates awarded however (69%), the California Miracle has not materialized. As of this writing, Clinton is actually ahead in California. She gained 238 delegates there, compared to Sanders' 155. This is on top of her strong showing in NJ. So now it comes down to math, and the delegate count:

Clinton, pledged: 2168
Sanders, pledged: 1777

Needed to win: 2383

Still to be awarded in CA: 82
Number of Super Delegates: 719

To get to the magic number, Clinton needs 215 more delegates. For Sanders, it will require 606. Even if he wins the rest of the CA pledged delegates, he will need 524 of the 719 super-delegates to vote for him. Considering that in both the popular vote and the pledged delegates awarded Clinton has a significant lead, there is no realistic scenario where that would happen. All it takes is for the super-delegates to be awarded by states won or by percentage of pledged delegates won, and that will push Clinton over the top.

The question between now and the convention (and between the convention and election day) is: what will the Sanders super-supporters do? I am not referring to those who supported Sanders, but will "vote blue, no matter who", or will grudgingly pull the lever for Clinton. I am talking about the scorched-earth-burn-the-village-to-save-it-REVOLUTION! supporters who have pledged to never ever ever vote for Clinton. At this point, their hopes must be yielding to reality (unless they're delusional). Will they stick to their guns and vote Green Party or do a write-in for Sanders (or - God forbid - vote for Trump)?

That - as much as the Democratic Party getting us that much closer to breaking the Glass Ceiling - will be the story to watch over the next several weeks and months (regarding the "first women as a candidate for president" meme, some may point out Jill Stein or Cynthia McKenny. They are considered 3rd party, but the point is taken. The reality is that their process is also not nearly as arduous as the process for the Democratic and Republican parties. making Clinton's accomplishment much more significant).

As the over-used trope says: Watch this space.

11 comments (Latest Comment: 06/09/2016 00:26:27 by Will in Chicago)
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Comment by Will in Chicago on 06/08/2016 13:34:50
Good morning, bloggers!!!

We will see what the next few days bring, but I expect that we will see back scene talks between the Clinton and Sanders camp. In the meantime, Donald Trump will continue to redefine the word schmuck.

Comment by BobR on 06/08/2016 13:36:29
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Comment by Scoopster on 06/08/2016 13:55:34
Mornin' all..

Desperation is a stinky cologne. I used to have so much respect for Sanders, until he showed himself to be just as driven to do anything to win as the GOP in the name of progress and revolution.

Comment by TriSec on 06/08/2016 14:08:21
Imagine going to a fight, and a baseball game breaks out...

Comment by Will in Chicago on 06/08/2016 14:15:25
BobR, I suspect that we will only see a very small group of people who will stick with the Bernie or Burst crowd.

I do agree that we need to take a look at the process, and I find myself opposing the concept of super delegates.as some of them are lobbyists.

I would urge Sanders supporters to consider working within the Democratic Party to make it more progressive. Parties, like any human institution, are far from perfect but can be changed for the better.

Comment by Mondobubba on 06/08/2016 14:20:24
Hello all I have been bored of late, so I created a bunch of anti-Trump memes. See them on my book of the faces.

Comment by wickedpam on 06/08/2016 14:58:53
Morning all

I need a little help finding some things. I have a friend who is on disability and needs help with her electric bill. She has already gotten help from LIHEAP or in her case WHEAP but its only a once a year thing - can anyone suggest some other programs? I'm googling but this is out of my depth and she's panicking cause she needs to pay her electric in 2 weeks or she could help up homeless.

Comment by Raine on 06/08/2016 15:49:20
Quote by TriSec:
Imagine going to a fight, and a baseball game breaks out...

It was pretty crazy!

Comment by TriSec on 06/08/2016 15:52:01
Never mind Disney. What I want right now is a week off the grid out of cellphone range at Scout Camp.



Comment by wickedpam on 06/08/2016 17:07:15
I really have started to resent BernieBros and their negativity about Hillary. So upset now I'm beginning to worry that we won't win in Nov and we're going to have a true idiot for a pres and be hated by the world.

Then that topper about my friend and I'm the verge of tears. I feel helpless about all of this.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 06/09/2016 00:26:27
Quote by wickedpam:
I really have started to resent BernieBros and their negativity about Hillary. So upset now I'm beginning to worry that we won't win in Nov and we're going to have a true idiot for a pres and be hated by the world.

Then that topper about my friend and I'm the verge of tears. I feel helpless about all of this.


My hope is that most of the BernieBros will listen to Bernie. As for your friend, perhaps a few local social service agencies might have resources. I know that my local Jewish Federation has contact numbers for lots of agencies.