The recent passage of the Senate health care reform bill has been so much on the minds of political junkies, it seems the passing of the House bill happened a lifetime ago. It was the House bill that created the uproar with the town hall meetings and the litany of lies (such as "death panels") and ultimately only passed by the addition of the Stupak amendment. Despite having a seemingly large majority of the seats there, it is still a thin edge when it comes to getting legislation through.
That edge is likely to get thinner in 2010 for two reasons. First, Obama won't be on the ticket, and the Republican failures of the past decade will be a dim memory for a short-attention-span-I-want-it-now populace. The other reason will be the census.
In a recent
column by Chris Cillizza, he analyzes the population estimates from a Census Bureau report. Historically, the report is accurate, so we can use it to make projections. Even though House members have to run for re-election every two years, the census is used to apportion Representatives among the 50 states only every 10 years. After the census, we're stuck with the change until 2020.
How will this change the balance of power? Going strictly on the changes via the census (ignoring voter sentiment, etc.), it seems that Blue states are losing 8 seats and Red states are gaining 8. From a table linked in the same article:
Gaining seats- Arizona (+1)*
- Florida (+1)
- Nevada (+1)
- South Carolina (+1)
- Texas (+4)
- Utah (+1)
- Washington (+1)*
Losing seats- Illinois (-1)
- Iowa (-1)*
- Louisiana (-1)
- Massachusetts (-1)
- Michigan (-1)
- Minnesota (-1)
- New York (-1)
- Ohio (-2)
- Pennsylvania (-1)
*An independent commission draws the congressional lines.
This alone will change the balance of power in the Republicans' favor:
Current:Dems: 257 59%
Reps: 178 41%
Post-Census:Dems: 249 57%
Reps: 186 43%
Also note the footnote - the article was focusing on governor's races as well, and who draws the district lines. I'm sure everyone remembers the infamous bruhaha in Texas in 2003 where the state House Dems left the state to prevent a quorum vote on an obviously gerrymandered redistricting pushed through by the state Republicans. The census results will require all of the states gaining or losing a representative to redraw district lines. Depending on state law and which party is in charge, that could lead to even further losses for the Dems - and that's without a single vote being cast by the populace.
This is why it's so important to get out the vote in 2010 and 2012. Despite your disappointment and disillusionment with the Senate health care bill or the President's actions in Afghanistan, it is vitally important that everyone votes, lest we return to Republican rule. The time to fight for more progressive candidates is in the primaries, and then vote for the Dem in the general election, regardless of whether the candidate you supported wins the primary.
If you're not sure you can do it in 2010, just remember 1994 when the Republicans controlled congress (and tried to impeach Bill Clinton). If you're not sure you can do it in 2012, just remember 2000-2006 when the Republicans controlled everything.
The census alone will shift a minimum of 8 votes across the aisle - pragmatism is a requirement for us to ensure it is only 8.
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