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Family Budgets Meet Macro Economics
Author: BobR    Date: 07/22/2013 13:03:02

Republicans have run their campaigns for years touting their financial savvy. They claim to be the antidote to "tax and spend liberals", and advocate for lower deficits and sound fiscal policy. Their track record, however, tells another story. The reverberations of an economy based on a house of cards rather than a solid foundation eventually become clear over time. Those reverberations are getting louder, and it is not a pleasant sound.

At the end of the Clinton presidency, we did not have budget deficits (yes, we still had debt - those are two different things). We were actually beginning to pay off some of the national debt. The economy was booming, and the middle class was still on good footing (not thriving, but doing okay).

Enter President George "Dubya" Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress. Bush thought it was a terrible thing that the federal government was taking in more money than was being spent by the government, and decided to "give it back" to the taxpayers. The infamous Bush tax cuts carved a huge hole in the budget and put the country back on track to accumulating and increasing the national debt. Add two wars and a housing collapse that put millions of taxpayers out of work (thus depressing the feeble tax stream even further) and the national debt ballooned.

This can happen on a family budge scale. Someone in the family gets sick and accumulates massive medical bills... The house gets flooded and the insurance company says "you don't have flood insurance - sorry"... The husband or wife loses their job and the income stream plummets. At that point, there is little left to do but declare bankruptcy.

The federal government can't declare bankruptcy, so they just increase the debt limit, lay off (or furlough) some workers, and raise taxes (or close tax loopholes). But what about those entities in between? What about cities, counties, and states?

In most cases, they don't have the same options as the federal government. That's why we keep hearing about them declaring bankruptcy. By far the biggest one to do so has been Detroit:
With more than $18 billion at stake in Detroit's restructuring, big law firms and other advisers are clamoring to represent the city's many creditors - including some advisers not exactly known for municipal work.

The city, which filed the largest-ever U.S. municipal bankruptcy on Thursday, tapped high-priced lawyers from Jones Day, financial advisers from Ernst & Young and restructuring consultants from Conway MacKenzie, court papers show.

For creditors and related parties, there is clearly a lot at stake. That means bondholders, insurers, retirees and others are sure to be accompanied in court by platoons of lawyers.

Previous to that, the largest municipal bankruptcy was Stockton, California. Both cities have something in common: the collapse of the main local industry, and the 2007 collapse of the housing bubble. In Detroit, it was the automobile and steel industries. In Stockton, it was the closure of a naval base. Stockton had just floated a bunch of bonds to revitalize their downtown, and once the base closed, their tax base for paying those bonds dried up. Detroit has seen a more gradual decline, but the economic collapse from 2007 to 2009 really did it in. You can buy house in Detroit with the cash in your checking account.

With city worker pensions (past promises to workers) straining budgets, and housing teetering on a delicate recovery/balloon line, and the economy's slow recovery, and with the sequestor effecting government workers across the country, this is a story that could get worse over time before it gets better. Currently, there are 36 cities and municipalities declaring bankruptcy. Bond insurance companies generally have to pay when the bond can't be repaid by the city. This will make it more difficult for cities to acquire bonds required for those big projects that attract business and new residents (or sometimes just keep them from leaving).

There are no easy answers here. The closing of a base or a large factory is hard to plan for. Cities would be wise to ensure they have multiple industries instead of relying on just one. There's also the delicate balance of raising enough taxes to keep the lights on (and maybe stash some under the mattress) with making taxes so high that people decide to move elsewhere. There is also some self-control required by all of us to reject the "flip this house" mentality that led to the housing price balloon in the first place. If you live in an area that is stable - look around, and get involved... and learn the lessons of the past. There are no guarantees, but we're not powerless to affect change either.

Balanced budgets require balanced taxation, common-sense spending, and civil planning. Budget numbers do not exist in a vacuum. That is where Republicans get it wrong.
 

70 comments (Latest Comment: 07/23/2013 03:29:05 by Raine)
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Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 13:10:22
Good morning!

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 13:15:10
Morning

Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 13:24:21
Morning.

Comment by trojanrabbit on 07/22/2013 13:24:24
Good morning.

Ah, Texass. Who needs amusement park safety oversight. No problem, I'm SURE SFoT has it all covered.


Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 13:35:14
This is an interesting article about the Virginia Gov race.
“Mr. Cuccinelli’s very hard stance on some of the social issues is a concern for me,” said Virginia Beach developer Bruce L. Thompson, chief executive officer of Gold Key/PHR Hotels and Resorts, a financial backer of current Republican Governor Bob McDonnell who in May gave McAuliffe $25,000.

“I believe personally in a woman’s right to choose, but I also think from an economic development standpoint, we’re trying to attract businesses from other areas of the country, and we’re telling women that we’re going to regulate the way that they run their life? I just don’t think we can be exclusionary when it comes to women” and gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered individuals, Thompson said.



Of McDonnell’s top 25 individual donors, only 10 so far have contributed to Cuccinelli -- leaving three-fifths either on the sidelines or actively working against Cuccinelli, financial disclosures posted by the Virginia Public Access Project show.


Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 14:00:21
blog is posted


Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 14:01:30
Quote by trojanrabbit:
Good morning.

Ah, Texass. Who needs amusement park safety oversight. No problem, I'm SURE SFoT has it all covered.

Realistically - a death at one of their parks is a public-relations nightmare, so they are very financially interested in preventing them from happening.

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:02:39
Excellent and distressing post today Blog.

Grover norquist must be a joyful man to see what's happening in Detroit. They managed to drown a city government in a bathtub.

Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 14:12:18
Bobber, your Stockton link, not so much

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 14:20:25
Raine/Bob I need/want the recipe for both of those ribs! And Mom says thanks for the pickles :D

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:22:12
Quote by Mondobubba:
Bobber, your Stockton link, not so much
Working fine for me.


Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 14:23:18
Quote by Mondobubba:
Bobber, your Stockton link, not so much

I just clicked on it and it brought up the page for me...

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:23:40
Quote by wickedpam:
Raine/Bob I need/want the recipe for both of those ribs! And Mom says thanks for the pickles :D
I have to get the Asian style ones from Blair. Leet me write down my dry rub and get it to you.

(it's handwritten by me -- should probably put it on the digital machine)


Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:25:39
Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 14:30:04
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Raine/Bob I need/want the recipe for both of those ribs! And Mom says thanks for the pickles :D
I have to get the Asian style ones from Blair. Leet me write down my dry rub and get it to you.

(it's handwritten by me -- should probably put it on the digital machine)




Yay! Make Blair give you that one! :D

Comment by Scoopster on 07/22/2013 14:34:57
Mornin' all...

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:39:02
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all...

how was the commute home?



Comment by TriSec on 07/22/2013 14:41:10
Howdy folks. Back from an outstanding week at camp.

In case you missed it on the Book of Face, here's the photos.

I recommend not using the full-screen slideshow. Some are captioned, but some other photos have comments on them instead.

I'll still work up a full report at some time; a few significant things occured that I am rather pleased about.


Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:45:51
zOMG. This. Creepy. and awesome.

Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 14:48:06
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Mondobubba:
Bobber, your Stockton link, not so much

I just clicked on it and it brought up the page for me...



Yeah, working now. I got the dread "Google oops" earlier. Silly interwebs.

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 14:48:57
Quote by TriSec:
Howdy folks. Back from an outstanding week at camp.

In case you missed it on the Book of Face, here's the photos.

I recommend not using the full-screen slideshow. Some are captioned, but some other photos have comments on them instead.

I'll still work up a full report at some time; a few significant things occured that I am rather pleased about.


Welcome back looks like fun was had by all


Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 14:49:26
Quote by Raine:
zOMG. This. Creepy. and awesome.



That. Is. Disturbing!

Comment by Will in Chicago on 07/22/2013 14:49:50
Good morning bloggers!! BobR, great blog. Based on the Republican record on economics, which going back to the Great Depression shows that the GOP lags behind Democrats in job creation and other economic measures, we should not take the GOP seriously as a party of fiscal conservatism. A family budget and a national budget are very different things.

I spent time with friends yesterday, so I am feeling a bit better than Friday. I will get back to the job search after yard work this morning.

Comment by Scoopster on 07/22/2013 14:53:27
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all...

how was the commute home?

Just as wacky, and thankfully MUCH cooler. Except at Times Square/Grand Central, where it was still a giant oven. There was something really strange going on in Yonkers yesterday too.. they had all almost all the main roads blocked off, a fleet of moving vans being escorted, and the cops guarding every municipal building AND the hospital. It was a little creepy..

When I got up to New Haven I had 3 hours of layover time, and my other half said she still wasn't feeling good so I had a looong time to wait... until she surprised me by showing up! We got some dinner & walked around for a bit before I had to get back to catch my ride home.

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 14:57:12
Quote by Scoopster:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by Scoopster:
Mornin' all...

how was the commute home?

Just as wacky, and thankfully MUCH cooler. Except at Times Square/Grand Central, where it was still a giant oven. There was something really strange going on in Yonkers yesterday too.. they had all almost all the main roads blocked off, a fleet of moving vans being escorted, and the cops guarding every municipal building AND the hospital. It was a little creepy..

When I got up to New Haven I had 3 hours of layover time, and my other half said she still wasn't feeling good so I had a looong time to wait... until she surprised me by showing up! We got some dinner & walked around for a bit before I had to get back to catch my ride home.
I was probably this in Yonkers.


Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 14:59:34
OMG OMG OMG O!M!G! The world must come to a complete stop so we can cover in minute detail the labor and delivery of the royal baby! This is the single most important thing happening in the world right now!















Comment by Scoopster on 07/22/2013 14:59:36
Quote by Raine:
It was probably this in Yonkers.

Oh goodness.. I got down there just a little while after that! That pretty much explains everything.

Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 15:31:39
Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 15:36:28
Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 15:42:13
Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 15:45:44
Quote by wickedpam:
Cosmos reboot trailer

Whoa!

I am all over that.

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 15:48:46
Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 15:50:45
Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 16:04:38
Quote by wickedpam:
Cosmos reboot trailer

Whoa!



Sweet!

Comment by Will in Chicago on 07/22/2013 16:10:35
Paul Krugman offers a few thoughts on Detroit.

Comment by Scoopster on 07/22/2013 17:16:19
Oooh yeah almost forgot!

http://images.bluegartr.com/bucket/gallery/6934da6a685a89c66cbafb3cd2fe7e47.JPG


Comment by livingonli on 07/22/2013 17:18:22
Good day, people. It seems like as soon as I get online I always end up with more to do and less time to do it. Tonight, it's 5 to midnight doing the Nationals game.

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 17:18:38
AAWWWW!

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 17:19:11
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, people. It seems like as soon as I get online I always end up with more to do and less time to do it. Tonight, it's 5 to midnight doing the Nationals game.


here's to hoping you get home at a same hour


Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 17:35:20
Quote by Scoopster:
Oooh yeah almost forgot!

http://images.bluegartr.com/bucket/gallery/6934da6a685a89c66cbafb3cd2fe7e47.JPG



Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 17:36:45
RIP Dennis Farina.



Comment by Mondobubba on 07/22/2013 17:52:06
Quote by Raine:
RIP Dennis Farina.




Aww man!

Comment by livingonli on 07/22/2013 18:32:38
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, people. It seems like as soon as I get online I always end up with more to do and less time to do it. Tonight, it's 5 to midnight doing the Nationals game.


here's to hoping you get home at a same hour

I still have to wonder about those expectations that the Nationals were going to be a much better team are working out as they have slipped below .500

Comment by BobR on 07/22/2013 18:53:15
Quote by livingonli:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by livingonli:
Good day, people. It seems like as soon as I get online I always end up with more to do and less time to do it. Tonight, it's 5 to midnight doing the Nationals game.


here's to hoping you get home at a same hour

I still have to wonder about those expectations that the Nationals were going to be a much better team are working out as they have slipped below .500

I just heard on the radio that they fired the hitting coach. Not sure how much that's going to help.

Comment by trojanrabbit on 07/22/2013 19:07:45
Quote by Raine:

Awesome.

Is the joke that it doesn't do anything?

Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 19:14:35



the start of the spin - bet he runs for an office

Comment by Raine on 07/22/2013 19:18:55
Quote by wickedpam:



the start of the spin - bet he runs for an office
Of course it's spin. this happened last Thursday.

The skeptic in me says it's all Bullshit.


Comment by wickedpam on 07/22/2013 19:23:19
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:



the start of the spin - bet he runs for an office
Of course it's spin. this happened last Thursday.

The skeptic in me says it's all Bullshit.


unless there is video I will not believe it and even if there is so what, will that bring Trayvon back to life?

No.

Mark my words this guy is going to run for some sort of off and they are trying to build is "hero" image.