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It's all over but the counting
Author: BobR    Date: 11/04/2020 13:56:55

How's everyone today? Stressed? Hungover? Bleary-eyed from lack of sleep?

Last night was a typical election day evening, with Republicans and Democrats winning the states they usually do. This time, the stakes seemed higher, because of course they are. The current occupant of the White House has behaved like a bull in a china shop the last 4 years, tearing up all the norms of what we consider presidential, and replacing them with those one expects from a despot. There was a lot of hope for a "blue wave", with dreams of winning the Senate too. The number of states considered "battleground" increased this year, to include GA and TX. Texas appears to be a win for tRump, but GA is still in the mix.

However, it looks like the U.S. is a bit more evenly divided than we believed. This favors the voters in the lower-population states due to the electoral college system, and for decades they have been reliable Republican voters. This means the Democrats need to win the popular vote by quite a bit to win (as Hillary Clinton sadly found out 4 years ago).

As it stands right now, Biden has 2.5 million more popular votes than tRump. Per the projection map as it stands right now, Biden is also ahead in the electoral college votes. The maps aren't showing him winning AZ, NV, and ME, but he is expected to. That would put him at 245, needing another 25 electoral votes to give him a victory. Still very undecided are WI, MI, PA, GA, and NC, although I suspect NC will go to tRump. The remaining votes to be counted in PA and GA come from Democratic strongholds, so those could easily go to Biden. MI and WI are very close, and I don't have any kind of "inside info" as to where the remaining votes are coming from.

Last night tRump prematurely declared victory, but it's not surprising that he would be "premature".

Sadly, Moscow Mitch McConnell appears to have handily won reelection, and the Senate does not appear to have moved into Democratic control. That means 4 more years of inaction. Yes, Warnock is leading in GA, but that's because 2 Republicans split the R vote, and the two top finishers are headed for a run-off, which the Republican will likely win (although with it being a special election - who knows?).

PA and GA paused their vote count last night so workers could get some sleep (I support that), and will resume counting today. It will likely be several days before we know for sure.

Personally, I find it discouraging and disheartening that so many of my fellow citizens are willing to look the other way when it comes to tRump's gross behavior and incompetence in office. What happened to us? What is wrong with us?
 
 

25 comments (Latest Comment: 11/04/2020 20:44:14 by Raine)
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Comment by wickedpam on 11/04/2020 14:12:02
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?

Comment by Will in Chicago on 11/04/2020 14:16:07
Good morning, bloggers!!!

I am guardedly optimistic.

However, even if Biden wins, we need to assess what we could do better. I think that the lack of a Democratic ground game may have had an impact.

I have hope for the future but I know that we have a lot of work ahead of us.

Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 14:22:27
Biden is ahead in WI, MI and ME. With AZ and NV (if it holds), that makes 271

Comment by wickedpam on 11/04/2020 14:23:34
Good local news - Manassas City has its 1st African/American female Mayor! And Dems are in control of the city council!

Ian Lovejoy can kiss my ass!

Comment by Will in Chicago on 11/04/2020 14:24:05
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.


Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 14:26:14
Quote by wickedpam:
Good local news - Manassas City has its 1st African/American female Mayor! And Dems are in control of the city council!

Ian Lovejoy can kiss my ass!



Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 14:30:50
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.

I find it weird that Maine as a state is going for Biden, but is re-electing Collins.

Comment by wickedpam on 11/04/2020 14:32:06
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.

I find it weird that Maine as a state is going for Biden, but is re-electing Collins.


Right?!


Comment by TriSec on 11/04/2020 14:48:47
Evenly split between Americans and Fascist Traitors to the Union, I think you meant to say Bob.

Massachusetts remains the bluest state in the bluest region. At least I have that. I'm not sure what to think this morning - I'm not seeing a good path with the remaining states with the most electoral maps remaining "pink" on the websites I have checked so far.


Comment by livingonli on 11/04/2020 15:03:23
It is scary to think that we have enough Americans who would have no problem if this country were to go the way of Nazi Germany. Locally the GOP held onto districts 1 and 2 and they took back the Staten Island seat. Even if Biden gets the win, we're stuck with Moscow Mitch and his evil gang riding roughshod over the Senate.

Comment by Raine on 11/04/2020 15:25:27
Morning.

Comment by Raine on 11/04/2020 15:26:34
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.

I find it weird that Maine as a state is going for Biden, but is re-electing Collins.


Right?!

Was that def called?

Comment by wickedpam on 11/04/2020 15:28:35
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.

I find it weird that Maine as a state is going for Biden, but is re-electing Collins.


Right?!

Was that def called?


I thought it was last night - granted I was half asleep watching msnbc but I thought they called it for Collins at 53%


Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 16:43:11
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by BobR:
Quote by Will in Chicago:
Quote by wickedpam:
Morning

So how the F did Susan Collins win?


Probably the strength of incumbency. I think we need to have an analysis of why the Democrats did not do better.

I find it weird that Maine as a state is going for Biden, but is re-electing Collins.


Right?!

Was that def called?


I thought it was last night - granted I was half asleep watching msnbc but I thought they called it for Collins at 53%

Maine (like NB) splits its electoral votes based on House districts. So for Maine, Biden won one and tRump won one. But Biden got more popular vote state-wide.

Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 16:44:37
Quote by TriSec:
Evenly split between Americans and Fascist Traitors to the Union, I think you meant to say Bob.

Massachusetts remains the bluest state in the bluest region. At least I have that. I'm not sure what to think this morning - I'm not seeing a good path with the remaining states with the most electoral maps remaining "pink" on the websites I have checked so far.

WI, MI, NV, and AZ will all likely go to Biden. That will get him to 270. Hopefully, PA will as well, which would REALLY put the nail in tRump's coffin. GA would be awesome, but that's a pipe dream, and I think NC will soon be out of reach.

Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 17:17:27
Non-candidate ballot news:

DC voted to legalize "magic" mushrooms.

Mississippi will be replacing their confederate state flag with one that has a magnolia tree on it.

Comment by Raine on 11/04/2020 17:26:48


Comment by Raine on 11/04/2020 17:54:59
now the Occupant is callin for a RECOUNT in Wisconsin.

JHK...

Comment by wickedpam on 11/04/2020 17:59:21
Quote by Raine:
now the Occupant is callin for a RECOUNT in Wisconsin.

JHK...



He's not going to "find" 20k+ votes there, unless he cheats them there.

Comment by livingonli on 11/04/2020 18:08:58
NJ voted to legalize Marijuana.

Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 18:31:32
Quote by Raine:
now the Occupant is callin for a RECOUNT in Wisconsin.

JHK...

I would expect any state where the result was within 1% would be an automatic recount

Comment by BobR on 11/04/2020 18:38:28
As it stands now, Biden is 3M votes ahead of tRump in the popular vote. That's how much Clinton beat him in the popular vote. This time, though, it looks like the electoral vote will go Biden's way.

Comment by Will in Chicago on 11/04/2020 19:11:05
Wisconsin goes to .... JOE BIDEN!!!

Comment by Will in Chicago on 11/04/2020 20:12:02
Comment by Raine on 11/04/2020 20:44:14
Quote by wickedpam:
Quote by Raine:
now the Occupant is callin for a RECOUNT in Wisconsin.

JHK...



He's not going to "find" 20k+ votes there, unless he cheats them there.

BINGO.